This was clearly his modurs operandi with the Panama canal stuff, the tariffs or his plans to resettle the Gazans (which really got Egypt, Jordan and SA going). So it would make sense to view his approach to Ukraine in the same light. I've had this thought as well. Upon closer inspection, I'm not sure though if this really adds up. Like I've said before, his current proposal is actually too favorable for Ukraine, relative to how much their back is against the wall on the battlefield. And that's further exacerbated by the prospect of Trump pulling the plug on the funding and arms supplies for Ukraine. So chances are that Russia will feel emboldened to make significantly more far-reaching demands, for example the complete demilitarization of Ukraine. This, in turn, means that Trump is fostering a negotiating process in which he will end up looking weak and ineffective when everything is said and done.
Unlike with Panama, Canada, Greenland or Gaza, he's not projecting strength and force to get concessions, he's giving up leverage and strengthening the position of the other side. A bit more strategic ambiguity would have really served him well going into the Ukraine negotiations. So I'm no longer sure if this is really a deliberate, masterful bargaining tactic; perhaps he just genuinely wants to drop Ukraine like a hot potato, consequences and optics be damned.
Not about leverage with Russia, but about shifting the spending burden from American taxpayers to German ones. It's going to happen, but Trump's abruptness will force Euro spend way faster than they would have wanted.
This post was edited by ofthevoid on Feb 20 2025 03:44pm