Do you seriously expect sanctions to be lifted in the foreseeable future, while also believing that a truce will happen according to the Korean scenario?

Meanwhile in Ukraine.
"The Russian ruble is rapidly plummeting to the level of toilet paper amid negotiations with Trump. Yesterday it was at 100, and today it's already at 90."

You've been predicting the crash of the ruble for the last 3 years




He's too busy telling everyone on Reddit that Ukraine is a great testing ground for NATO and Russia is out of missiles / fighting with rusty old WW2 equipment and shovels

Sultan al-Putini held a telephone conversation with the Amir of the United Vilayats, Abu Ivanka al-Amriki. It is reported that, by the will of Allah, they agreed to begin the process of halting Jihad in the Vilayat of Hinzir.

In 2019, Trump was already trying to prevent that war.

The Korean scenario means both parties still technically in a state of war, with one side becoming an isolated dictatorship whose ruling family depends on keeping its country shut off from the rest of the world. Such a scenario isn't realistic for Ukraine.

First, there is no point in stopping the warfare from either the Western or the Russian point of view unless relations can be normalized again, which necessarily involves some degree of lifting the sanctions.
Second, Zelensky is no dictator like the Kims. Ukraine has too much of a civil society to transform the country into one, either. Also, you have 10 million countrymen abroad, so going full turtle would never be a feasible path for Ukraine.




You must conflate me with Proximity; I never predicted a crash of the ruble. Russia has huge amounts of commodities which the world wants, so their currency will always have an anchor and proper hyperinflation would only be possible if they engage in absurd levels of money printing. The war and the sanctions did put the ruble under pressure, though.

Even with its rally of the past two days, the ruble is still only where it was a year ago and has still lost 33% of its value compared with 2022, 20% compared with 2021 (pre-invasion) and 60% compared with 2014 (pre-war).

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Feb 13 2025 06:38am

Trump confirmed that Zelensky will not participate in the negotiations and will have to accept the agreement:

"Zelensky will have to do what he has to do. And his poll numbers are not particularly great, to put it mildly..."

I expect the US to lift sanctions against Russia. Its not good business for the US. If they want to undermine BRIC's thats the first step. this looks pretty self evident to me. Sanctions has to be one of the dumbest moves made as it forced geopolitical rivals to look for alternative currencies.
I also am bemused by this whole concept of seeming complexity in a peace deal. its really not complex, no Nato for Ukraine. to repeat, russia has already said everything else is negotiable.

the problem resides with the EU, in determining who will lead. From a geopolitical perspective the US has given the EU a hot potato. The security of Ukraine is a contrived problem, which now belongs to the EU from what i am seeing. If it takes time for the EU to figure it out, well, whatever.

This post was edited by ferdia on Feb 13 2025 11:54am

Lel

what that shows (for ppl not understanding) is that the EU is NOT capable of creating a defense framework / deterrent without the US (funding).
so they are in lala land right now throwing all their toys while they figure out how to find a win right now.

This post was edited by ferdia on Feb 13 2025 12:01pm