It's not highlighted, but if you read line 4, i think it's implicit that Ukraine isn't going to be re-arming for round 2 afterwards. The Euros would basically serve as the buffer to not have fights start up again. It's not hard to monitor from Russia's POV either. If Ukraine looks to be re-arming again it would be pretty easy for Russia to notice and break the peace.
Would it? Under this proposal, you'd have significant troop contingents of European NATO members standing between Russia and Kyiv, so Russia couldn't come back to nip a re-arming Ukraine in the bud without having to go through those first.
It's also a MASSIVE contradiction to on the one hand argue that Russian fears of NATO expansionism are far and away the main casus belli, and on the other hand expect them to accept NATO troops being permanently stationed on Ukrainian soil.
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IMO this is a neutral deal for Russia but i think they are tired and would view it as acceptable. It's basically you keep what you have while Ukraine doesn't get into NATO. Not a terrible deal. Maybe they would want all of Donetsk/Zap/Kherson but may not be worth to keep fighting and say no to peace.
This would be a terrible deal for Russia. Ukraine would keep its sovereignty, could join the EU, would have security assurances which diminish Russia's blackmail potential against them and would sign off on NATO contingents being officially stationed on their doorstep.
In this case, they would have played two cards which can only be played once (the soviet-era stockpiles of artillery and shells, closing the gas tap to Europe at a time when Europe has a dangerous degree on dependence on them), sacrificed hundreds of thousands of soldiers, alienated their best customers and taken a massive economic hit, and for what? Gaining some 8% of Ukrainian territory beyond what they already held before Feb 22 and having a formal guarantee of no Ukraine in NATO, which was impossible in practical terms anyway?
This deal would only make any sense for the Russians if they 1.) could trust that the Ukrainians won't try to re-arm, and 2.) if this whole war was truly fought over NATO membership and nothing else; if economic concerns or retaining their sphere of influence had truly been no motivation for this war.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Feb 6 2025 03:13pm