The big question mark is how much global oil prices would be impacted if Russian oil truly disappared from the market. Could be a blip, but could also trigger a new round of global inflation, which is the last thing anyone wants right now, Trump/the US included.
US production is set to expand under a Trump presidency, but it will take at least some time before the expanded capacities come online. Will SA be willing to fill the gap in the meantime?
This is a nice cudgel to wield against Russia with regard to the imminent peace talks, but imho not something the West could keep up in the long run. In reality, the Russian shadow fleet gave the West a face-saving way out of its own sanctions rhetoric.
Yeah agree
Inflation in the US is still an issue, that's why we have close to 5% yield on the 10 year even though the fed cut several times and was expected to cut 2-3 times in 2025. Russia is too big of a global player to completely push out of the supply market with none of the OPEC members able to fully cover that supply need. It's a double edged sword for the west, sure we want to pressure them, particularly right now as to force their hand in potential upcoming peace negotiations but if this drags out, it's a huge negative for the west just as well. This is also the slow season of travel/oil demand so if there's a good time, it's now, not late spring/summer.
US shale is also not what it was a decade ago. I listen to various financial podcast and wells in Permian/Bakken/Eagle Ford that spurred the shale revolution aren't producing at the same rates as they once were. We can probably find other places to drill in but those mentioned were considered much more economical.
https://www.artberman.com/blog/beginning-of-the-end-for-the-permian/#:~:text=The%20results%20of%20decline%2Dcurve,38%25%20from%202021%20to%202023.
This post was edited by ofthevoid on Jan 14 2025 12:51pm