Ahh, okay, i see what i did wrong now. I didn't take into account the 3rd number being swapped in for the 2nd number, and so forth, which leaves 3x more possibilities.

I get your point now, ya, the odds should be i believe:
1 in 76 for 2 correct numbers

then this for the rest:
1 in 42,840 for jackpot
1 in 8,568 for 3 correct numbers.
1 in 1,298 for 2 correct ordered numbers.

the math i used works in the same 2 numbers is stable, but it's clearly not, so the odds are actually better than we though for the 2 correct numbers lol

Edit: open a site suggestion for it to be fixed if you want to

The 0.49% prize we currently use for the "two correct unordered"-category are based on the (incorrect) probability of 1:210, it is 210/42840=0.49% of the pot.

Adjusting the prize to the correct probability of (roughly!) 1:70 would yield 70/42840=0.16% of the pot.

It is three times more likely than we assumed initially, so the winning amount would be cut by two thirds of its current value.

Which is why I'm im torn wether this would be a popular site suggestion. When the pot is reset to 1000 FG (after the jockpot is won) it would mean that the lowest category (2 unordered) would yield a "win" of 1 FG.

Perhaps keep the payout the way it is and just change the numbers (the odds). I might post a suggestion!

This is exactly where I understood where I went wrong as well.
Thanks for pointing it out



If you do, keep us in the loop if it's soon! c:

I found some history regarding the raffle: https://forums.d2jsp.org/topic.php?t=1711176

Not a math wizard, so I won't comment on probability. Some discussions regarding the odds and implementations start with post #86

you might find this interesting

This post was edited by ChocolateCoveredGummyBears on Sep 21 2022 03:11pm

Yeah I agree, these are the correct probabilities if you consider the events like "just win this category and none other".

Thanks!