Quote (ferdia @ 8 Jun 2022 10:39)
The notion of Russia's march to take over Europe. Ukraine today, Finland, Germany, France tomorrow - This is not logical at all. Russia accepted Polands positions, the Nato position, a long time ago. However FOR YEARS Russia stated that they would NOT ACCEPT or countenance a change in position of Ukraine. Angela Merkel was right, it was too soon in 2008 to enable / allow Ukraine into Nato. America enabled Ukraine for the last 8 years, they have not acted for the immediate interests of the Ukrainian people - they are literally funding a war of attrition of their own making.
In the politest of terms, I completely disagree with your narrative of (a) Russia wants to invade western europe (b) western europe will provide nukes to ukraine (c) we will send armies into ukraine (d) Putin "smells weakness". You give out to germany because they didnt want to escalate things this far. you applaud america because they wanted to escalate it this far.
in my opinion:
1. Russia will not invade Finland
2. If Russia invaded Finland (Russia has ALREADY SUGGESTED THEY WONT DO THIS) Finland would be better able to defend themselves then most countries on the planet, and no way would europe not take action (military in defense of Finland).
3. Russia will not invade Poland, unless they wanted to start WW3 (hint: they dont want to start WW3). Similarly they will not invade any Nato country unless said country carried out an act of war first. Anyone that thinks that Nato would not defend another Nato country does not understand how the world works. If Nato did not defend one of their own it would undermine Nato / the Eu FOREVER. They MUST defend another Nato member being attacked. Thats my view.
Look at the Northern ireland protocol. England wants to make its own rules while Ireland is saying NO. The EU has no option but to side with Ireland as to break international law would undermine the EU forever. England does not get that, therefore if that crowd cant get it what hope for someone in Poland not to get that Nato MUST AND WILL always defend another nato member.
Russia hates the west right now. if Putin is removed there is no reason not to expect someone worse.
IMO
- You are understimating Putin's goals: since two decades he's busy invading old USSR countries, and like discussed above, he could be interested in parts with high % of people speaking russian. IE: if he succeed with Ukraine (which seems unthinkable atm) he could give a try on Lithuania, Estonia, Maybe Moldova.
- On the other hand it's clear he cannot longer invade any major advanced country like Finland. And I think Poland is preparing itself since a while already (
https://tradingeconomics.com/poland/military-expenditure )
- You are overstimating Russians' will: the riches ones certainly do not want this war, along with a part of intellectual elite (including institutions), and probably the vast majority of educated ones. More like the majority of these rural and basic workers simply want: nothing special, and they don't even really know.
Quote (Norlander @ 8 Jun 2022 16:07)
Donbass is a part of Ukraine
These guys are really unlucky
This post was edited by Saucisson6000 on Jun 8 2022 10:18am