Quote (ferdia @ 8 Jun 2022 12:39)
The notion of Russia's march to take over Europe. Ukraine today, Finland, Germany, France tomorrow - This is not logical at all. Russia accepted Polands positions, the Nato position, a long time ago. However FOR YEARS Russia stated that they would NOT ACCEPT or countenance a change in position of Ukraine. Angela Merkel was right, it was too soon in 2008 to enable / allow Ukraine into Nato. America enabled Ukraine for the last 8 years, they have not acted for the immediate interests of the Ukrainian people - they are literally funding a war of attrition of their own making.
In the politest of terms, I completely disagree with your narrative of (a) Russia wants to invade western europe (b) western europe will provide nukes to ukraine (c) we will send armies into ukraine (d) Putin "smells weakness". You give out to germany because they didnt want to escalate things this far. you applaud america because they wanted to escalate it this far.
in my opinion:
1. Russia will not invade Finland
2. If Russia invaded Finland (Russia has ALREADY SUGGESTED THEY WONT DO THIS) Finland would be better able to defend themselves then most countries on the planet, and no way would europe not take action (military in defense of Finland).
3. Russia will not invade Poland, unless they wanted to start WW3 (hint: they dont want to start WW3). Similarly they will not invade any Nato country unless said country carried out an act of war first. Anyone that thinks that Nato would not defend another Nato country does not understand how the world works. If Nato did not defend one of their own it would undermine Nato / the Eu FOREVER. They MUST defend another Nato member being attacked. Thats my view.
Look at the Northern ireland protocol. England wants to make its own rules while Ireland is saying NO. The EU has no option but to side with Ireland as to break international law would undermine the EU forever. England does not get that, therefore if that crowd cant get it what hope for someone in Poland not to get that Nato MUST AND WILL always defend another nato member.
Russia hates the west right now. if Putin is removed there is no reason not to expect someone worse.
What happens when NATO fails to defend their eastern members?
I tell you, nothing really. Countries like Germany have always been breaking NATO rules, like about insufficient army funding. They will simply break one more rule, by saying that they cant help now but they surely keep their fingers crossed.
They will find some excuses, like Russian minority in Estonia, or rigid antiabortion rules in Poland, or say Polish were rusophobic as some people here are saying to me sometimes.
If there is a will, there is a way my friend.
These western countries have already failed their alliances in 1939, nothing happened back then, nowadays people arent different.
Now Germans week 1 say: "we gonna send artillery to Ukraine"
Then next week they say: "we cant send artillery there as it wouldnt please Vladimir Putin". And its like this all the time this spring. They say, then they withdrawn.
Can they make themselves even more compromited?
Most of the Russians want war to stop imo. At least those living in cities. I know there are some phone queries that said Russian support for invasion is like 75%, but my friend, when in autoritarian country such as Russia someone calls you and asks if you support your leader politics, it takes a lot of courage (or stupidity) to say: "I dont".
This post was edited by Ironfister on Jun 8 2022 07:25am