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Jun 7 2022 04:47pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ 8 Jun 2022 00:38)
https://assets.weforum.org/editor/large_5cKcLHKAQb2J9RigoqzyZzpdj561u2YkhgMT0L72ni4.jpg

Yes, a dollar spent in Russia goes further than a dollar spent in the UK or Germany, but a 5:1 ratio in defense spending between Europe and Russia is still huge.

It still baffles my mind how you guys claim that Russia could conquer the whole continent after what we have witnessed in Ukraine the past few months. They have been waging war against a smaller country and in 3.5 months, they have managed to conquer less than 10% of their victim's territory. (Russia currently controls slightly over 20% of Ukraine's territory, but most of that was already held by Russia before the outbreak of the war.) Yet you guys pretend like they could waltz into Europe and just casually take over 100 times more territory in the blink of an eye while the over 500k professional soldiers of the European countries sit idly by with their thumbs up their ass.


to be exact I said that Russia can take Germany, and Lvivz said that they dont take Germany as they like to trade with them. So not whole Europe, at least not at once.
5:1 ratio means pretty much the same given that Russians are like 5-10 times more poorer than Europeans. Here in Poland soldiers get some priviliges like early retirement, free home etc, Im not sure how many of them are really warriors or just wanted priviliges.
And as was already told, Europeans dont really work together so you cant just add it.
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Jun 7 2022 04:50pm
Quote (Lvivz @ Jun 8 2022 12:43am)
Ok Russia took over Crimea, Ukraine was willing to officially declare Crimea russian during peace talks. 8 years of positional warfare in the east, what was all that about then?
Nope russia decided to continue their invasion in the east, now laying out plans for a fake 230% yes referendum in the Kherson to create another banana republic and possibly absorb dnr/lnr banana republics.


I guess because Crimea still wasn't connected to Russia but to Ukraine. Which is why the Russians are determined to take all of Donbass.

The Russian speaking minorities are simply used by Russia but it's not really about them. It's all about securing Crimea and creating a land-bridge and as much buffer as possible.

That's my 2 cents there anyways
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Jun 7 2022 04:55pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 8 2022 01:38am)
https://assets.weforum.org/editor/large_5cKcLHKAQb2J9RigoqzyZzpdj561u2YkhgMT0L72ni4.jpg

Yes, a dollar spent in Russia goes further than a dollar spent in the UK or Germany, but a 5:1 ratio in defense spending between Europe and Russia is still huge.

It still baffles my mind how you guys claim that Russia could conquer the whole continent after what we have witnessed in Ukraine the past few months. They have been waging war against a smaller country and in 3.5 months, they have managed to conquer less than 10% of their victim's territory. (Russia currently controls slightly over 20% of Ukraine's territory, but most of that was already held by Russia before the outbreak of the war.) Yet you guys pretend like they could waltz into Europe and just casually take over 100 times more territory in the blink of an eye while the over 500k professional soldiers of the European countries sit idly by with their thumbs up their ass.


EU is not a united entity, its very much an economic bloc, thats it.
How would you organize 500k soldiers from 20+ different countries to work coherently in one united front vs russia? Its impossible, not to mention lots of those " professional forces" are expeditionary forces not fit/trained to fight in full scale positional warfare.

Russia will not move towards Germany or even Poland probably Putin wants his triumph against NATO to occur in the Baltics, and those 500k professional soldiers Europe has even if all organized will not go and fight russian orcs in the Baltics and risk nuclear confrontation.

It might happen after Ukraine, or after Kazakhstan (given how it slowly is wiggling out of typical central Asian dictatorship style country thus weakening Putins control)

But the fact is russia is trying to reabsorb the states USSR lost, either willingly as in case of Belarus/Armenia or by force, and Baltics just present a platform where NATO and its amendments will be shown to the world as empty-promises.

This post was edited by Lvivz on Jun 7 2022 04:56pm
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Jun 7 2022 05:08pm
Quote (Lvivz @ Jun 8 2022 12:21am)
Only European nations that would be able to resist russia in case of theoretical surprise invasion are :
Poland (would still be very hard first weeks for them as russia would attack from Belarus/occupied Ukraine)
Turkey
Great Britain
Finland (only defensive war capable)
France

thats it, all other EU armies are basically parade/support armed forces. And in event of invasion against Baltic states, I see only Poland/Great Britain/Maybe Finland(In Estonia) somewhat providing actual manpower which at that point wouldn't do much.


Quote (Ironfister @ Jun 8 2022 12:26am)
Russia is currently desperately low on their population. They can like triple, quadruple their population and therefore power by attacking Europe.



Sorry to disappoint you, but whenever there is a war, there is also a secret diplomacy that takes place between nations.
Officially Germany could even declare war to Russia, but make secret agreements with Russia that they arent sending troops and Russia doesnt attack German cities in return.
We have had such situation in Europe in 1939, when countries officially declared war to Nazi Germany but at the same time said "we arent ready to go to fight, so we will need some time before we can come help".
Remember lately American retreat from Afghanistan? Americans made secret agreement with Talibans, and didnt tell their Afghanistan government allies about it.
This is how the world works, sadly.
Also NATO article5 is very soft: Upon such attack, each member state is to assist by taking "such action as [the member state] deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Soft, soft, soft, "action as they deem necessary"


at this point we know that poland alone could stop russia, if europe is united or not doesnt even matter

of course germany for example has not much to send to the front lines, but just lending our industrial output to poland + baltics for example would already be game over for russia

they are just not as good as people thought they were
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Jun 7 2022 05:08pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 7 2022 03:38pm)
https://assets.weforum.org/editor/large_5cKcLHKAQb2J9RigoqzyZzpdj561u2YkhgMT0L72ni4.jpg

Yes, a dollar spent in Russia goes further than a dollar spent in the UK or Germany, but a 5:1 ratio in defense spending between Europe and Russia is still huge.

It still baffles my mind how you guys claim that Russia could conquer the whole continent after what we have witnessed in Ukraine the past few months. They have been waging war against a smaller country and in 3.5 months, they have managed to conquer less than 10% of their victim's territory. (Russia currently controls slightly over 20% of Ukraine's territory, but most of that was already held by Russia before the outbreak of the war.) Yet you guys pretend like they could waltz into Europe and just casually take over 100 times more territory in the blink of an eye while the over 500k professional soldiers of the European countries sit idly by with their thumbs up their ass.


I think we can both agree that the German military is a joke and Russia would easily waltz into your country. How much experience do your soldiers even have? It's not like you're battle-tested like Americans, Ukrainians, Brits, etc. You guys can't even be bothered to put a jacket on indoors because you're so addicted to Russian gas. What makes you think that you can stand up to the might of the Russian military when you start witnessing their war crimes first hand? The general consensus among military leaders is that your government and people will fold like a slice of NY pizza. Ironically, it would be France who holds the line.
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Jun 7 2022 05:16pm
Quote (thundercock @ 8 Jun 2022 01:08)
I think we can both agree that the German military is a joke and Russia would easily waltz into your country. How much experience do your soldiers even have? It's not like you're battle-tested like Americans, Ukrainians, Brits, etc. You guys can't even be bothered to put a jacket on indoors because you're so addicted to Russian gas. What makes you think that you can stand up to the might of the Russian military when you start witnessing their war crimes first hand? The general consensus among military leaders is that your government and people will fold like a slice of NY pizza. Ironically, it would be France who holds the line.


Their tanks would run out of fuel or fall apart before reaching the German border, lmao!

And I agree with Johnny, it is actually Poland that would hold the line. They are less pussified, their have far more national pride and the entire country is filled with rampant Russophobia. The Polish would fight just as hard as the Ukrainians, except that they have much more of the modern NATO equipment at their disposal. Also, if Russia actually tried to invade Poland (and it neither led to all-out nuclear war nor to a huge deployment of US troops to Europe), then Germany, France, the UK and all the other European countries would definitely wake up and send their militaries to the front to support the Polish - for the simple reason that France/Germany et al. would want the fighting and devastation to occur on someone else's territory.
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Jun 7 2022 05:22pm
Based on how the current fighting has gone, I would expect to see the Russians drive out of Poland within a few months. I'm not even sure they could take the Baltic states.
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Jun 7 2022 05:25pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 7 2022 04:16pm)
Their tanks would run out of fuel or fall apart before reaching the German border, lmao!

And I agree with Johnny, it is actually Poland that would hold the line. They are less pussified, their have far more national pride and the entire country is filled with rampant Russophobia. The Polish would fight just as hard as the Ukrainians, except that they have much more of the modern NATO equipment at their disposal. Also, if Russia actually tried to invade Poland (and it neither led to all-out nuclear war nor to a huge deployment of US troops to Europe), then Germany, France, the UK and all the other European countries would definitely wake up and send their militaries to the front to support the Polish - for the simple reason that France/Germany et al. would want the fighting and devastation to occur on someone else's territory.


If Russia invaded Poland, I don't think the Germans would send help. When we asked you for help after 9/11, you didn't provide much in terms of actual combat. ~60 German soldiers were killed whereas over 150 Canadian soldiers were killed and you sent roughly 4x more troops than they did. At the end of the day, your country's fighting days are over and you're not capable of mounting a defense. Americans ARE thankful for your hospitals though! They saved a lot of lives!

I don't see the Russians going through Poland. They'll bypass them, go through Hungary (invited), and then hit you in Bavaria through Austria. Meanwhile, the Russian Navy would lay siege to Hamburg. The real question is if you'll fall faster than Kabul did!
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Jun 7 2022 05:41pm
my two cents for the day: Russia would not be able to beat Finland any time soon in a conventional war, and its fantasy to even dream of Russia invading Poland or Germany, but carry on.

This post was edited by ferdia on Jun 7 2022 05:41pm
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Jun 7 2022 05:45pm
Quote (ferdia @ 8 Jun 2022 07:41)
my two cents for the day: Russia would not be able to beat Finland any time soon in a conventional war, and its fantasy to even dream of Russia invading Poland or Germany, but carry on.


It bemuse me that people would think that Russia will invade any of the countries you stated above.
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