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Jun 7 2022 03:36pm
Quote (Ironfister @ 7 Jun 2022 23:16)
I have seen and witnessed enough of Russia government actions to make correct decisions. Have you?



I already told you some time ago that Germans, also maybe little bit French, play their own risky game. They dont seem to want Ukraine to join western world, as UA is a big country and it would mean some competition for germano-franco leadership of the Europe. A leadership they dont want to share. Especially Germans. So they would rather see Russia capture Ukraine and enslave them. Thats why they push on Ukraine to accept a cease fire that benefits Russians but not Ukrainians, and their military supplies is very few if any.
But the game they are playing is very risky.
Because Ukrainians are battle veterans who were at war for a very long time and are probably the only nation that can really stop Russian advances in Europe.
Western peoples, including soldiers, while rich, hardworking, smart etc are also too spoiled. they will most probably rather just ran away than risk their lives. A kind of repeat from 1940year, when Hitler took powerful France in only like 2 weeks blitz war campaign. Also if Russia takes over Ukraine, they will just make a mass conscription, just like they do in Donbas area now. So they will have many "soldiers" to attack further west.

That's pure delusion imho. The combined manpower of the militaries of the EU are many times greater than that of UA or RUS, also, their equipment is far more advanced. Russia is struggling to defeat a country one third its own size which is using, in large parts, even more outdated equipment than the Russians themselves. Even if the Yanks stayed out of this conflict, how is the Russian military supposed to win against an opponent with far more modern tech, far more troops, far more industrial capacities and so on? And the Russians would have to do it deep on our soil where we would enjoy a much more pronounced defender's advantage than Ukraine does currently.

And this whole debate is moot anyway. American banks and investment funds are significant shareholders of pretty much all major European corporations; they have invested not billions but trillions in EU countries. For this reason alone, the U.S. military would intervene and squash any Russian advances toward Western Europe, no matter how much its politicians and common people might be fed up with the lazy Europeans and their defense free loading.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 7 2022 03:36pm
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Jun 7 2022 04:00pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 8 2022 12:36am)
That's pure delusion imho. The combined manpower of the militaries of the EU are many times greater than that of UA or RUS, also, their equipment is far more advanced. Russia is struggling to defeat a country one third its own size which is using, in large parts, even more outdated equipment than the Russians themselves. Even if the Yanks stayed out of this conflict, how is the Russian military supposed to win against an opponent with far more modern tech, far more troops, far more industrial capacities and so on? And the Russians would have to do it deep on our soil where we would enjoy a much more pronounced defender's advantage than Ukraine does currently.

And this whole debate is moot anyway. American banks and investment funds are significant shareholders of pretty much all major European corporations; they have invested not billions but trillions in EU countries. For this reason alone, the U.S. military would intervene and squash any Russian advances toward Western Europe, no matter how much its politicians and common people might be fed up with the lazy Europeans and their defense free loading.


Except that Ukrainian army has battle hardened veterans and 2nd largest after Russia army in Europe and are actually willing and able to face off against russians to the last man if needed.
And this "combined" EU army is a big delusion, Europe has extremely poor history of military unity, and should "special operations" begin in Estonia/Baltics which russian propagandists are calling for since February. 5th amendment or not, neither EU nor NATO will start nuclear war against russia and russia will overwhelm Baltics in days, using the very same reasoning of now "Baltic nazis" that massacre ethnic Russians there.

Germany has no battle able army really - neither do bunch of other countries like Hungary etc, and in very theoretical invasion by russia they would most likely capitulate in weeks. Theres a huge difference between having battle able army and just standing armed forces which do not have any real combat experience and will start cracking should surprise invasion take place, and given the size of most countries in EU they do not have the privilege that Ukrainians do in terms of tactical retreating.

However US would of course intervene. The question is when will they intervene? And where will the red line be drawn for this direct intervention. And do you want to see a situation in which Nato amendments will be practically tested? Because theres enough ethnic russians to grow propaganda on of how they are mistreated in the Baltics to start military operation there at any point.

This post was edited by Lvivz on Jun 7 2022 04:01pm
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Jun 7 2022 04:00pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ 7 Jun 2022 23:36)
That's pure delusion imho. The combined manpower of the militaries of the EU are many times greater than that of UA or RUS, also, their equipment is far more advanced. Russia is struggling to defeat a country one third its own size which is using, in large parts, even more outdated equipment than the Russians themselves. Even if the Yanks stayed out of this conflict, how is the Russian military supposed to win against an opponent with far more modern tech, far more troops, far more industrial capacities and so on? And the Russians would have to do it deep on our soil where we would enjoy a much more pronounced defender's advantage than Ukraine does currently.

And this whole debate is moot anyway. American banks and investment funds are significant shareholders of pretty much all major European corporations; they have invested not billions but trillions in EU countries. For this reason alone, the U.S. military would intervene and squash any Russian advances toward Western Europe, no matter how much its politicians and common people might be fed up with the lazy Europeans and their defense free loading.


And you think this "combined manpower" will fight together? Or it will be like its now with Ukraine:
Russians attack Ukraine, Europe says: "we stay out not to escalate conflict, lets advise Ukraine surrender"
Russians attack Poland next, Germans say: "we stay out not to escalate conflict, lets advise Poland surrender".
Then the Russians attack Germany next, and French say: "we stay out not to escalate conflict, lets advise Germany surrender".
What army Germany has really? 94 artilleries and 40 MLRS? 180 tanks? Russia has 3000 tanks and 3000 artilleries.
Its simply Germany puts like 1% of their GDP into army, while Russia puts like 20%. And money dont win wars. German soldiers during wartime gets paid about 1000EUR/day, while Russians pay their 10EUR/day. They can send 100 soldiers for a cost of single german.

Russia didnt send some of their best, newest weapons to fight Ukraine yet, saving them for later wars.
We dont know how many of these they have exactly, but its better to be pesimistic than optimistic.

Remember that Russia has a big impact on who wins USA elections. We know Trump doesnt want USA troops in Europe, and there will be more USA politicians like him. Europeans need to take care about our own defense, dont always look on uncle Sam!

This post was edited by Ironfister on Jun 7 2022 04:05pm
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Jun 7 2022 04:09pm
Quote (Ironfister @ Jun 8 2022 01:00am)
And you think this "combined manpower" will fight together? Or it will be like its now with Ukraine:
Russians attack Ukraine, Europe says: "we stay out not to escalate conflict, lets advise Ukraine surrender"
Russians attack Poland next, Germans say: "we stay out not to escalate conflict, lets advise Poland surrender".
Then the Russians attack Germany next, and French say: "we stay out not to escalate conflict, lets advise Germany surrender".
What army Germany has really? 94 artilleries and 40 MLRS? 180 tanks? Russia has 3000 tanks and 3000 artilleries.
Its simply Germany puts like 1% of their GDP into army, while Russia puts like 20%. And money dont win wars. German soldiers during wartime gets paid about 1000EUR/day, while Russians pay their 10EUR/day. They can send 100 soldiers for a cost of single german.

Russia didnt send some of their best, newest weapons to fight Ukraine yet, saving them for more important/difficult fight.
We dont know how many of these they have exactly, but its better to be pesimistic than optimistic.

Remember that Russia has a big impact on who wins USA elections. We know Trump doesnt want USA troops in Europe, and there will be more USA politicians like him. Europeans need to take care about our own defense, dont always look on uncle Sam!


It wouldn't get to the point where russia would engage Germany, Germany is too important as an economic partner for russians. And German companies are creating 1001 ways of going around sanctions.
However if Ukraine falls, its obvious that Baltics are next, thats where the resolve of NATO alliance will be ultimately tested and if Putin succeeds the alliance reputation will be tarnished (its a given that Germany/France/GB/Turkey will not start full blown war with Russia over Baltic States)
After Ukraine/Baltics - I think russia would use the slow option, engulfing other eastern states in corruption and making "satellite allied states" as we see in Hungary.





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Jun 7 2022 04:09pm
Quote (Ironfister @ Jun 8 2022 12:00am)
And you think this "combined manpower" will fight together? Or it will be like its now with Ukraine:
Russians attack Ukraine, Europe says: "we stay out not to escalate conflict, lets advise Ukraine surrender"
Russians attack Poland next, Germans say: "we stay out not to escalate conflict, lets advise Poland surrender".
Then the Russians attack Germany next, and French say: "we stay out not to escalate conflict, lets advise Germany surrender".
What army Germany has really? 94 artilleries and 40 MLRS? 180 tanks? Russia has 3000 tanks and 3000 artilleries.
Its simply Germany puts like 1% of their GDP into army, while Russia puts like 20%. And money dont win wars. German soldiers during wartime gets paid about 1000EUR/day, while Russians pay their 10EUR/day. They can send 100 soldiers for a cost of single german.

Russia didnt send some of their best, newest weapons to fight Ukraine yet, saving them for more important/difficult fight.
We dont know how many of these they have exactly, but its better to be pesimistic than optimistic.

Remember that Russia has a big impact on who wins USA elections. We know Trump doesnt want USA troops in Europe, and there will be more USA politicians like him. Europeans need to take care about our own defense, dont always look on uncle Sam!


What is this shit even, you sound worse than Qanon by now.

Russia isn't interested in attacking NATO why would they be interested in that??
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Jun 7 2022 04:11pm
Quote (Ironfister @ Jun 8 2022 12:00am)
And you think this "combined manpower" will fight together? Or it will be like its now with Ukraine:
Russians attack Ukraine, Europe says: "we stay out not to escalate conflict, lets advise Ukraine surrender"
Russians attack Poland next, Germans say: "we stay out not to escalate conflict, lets advise Poland surrender".
Then the Russians attack Germany next, and French say: "we stay out not to escalate conflict, lets advise Germany surrender".
What army Germany has really? 94 artilleries and 40 MLRS? 180 tanks? Russia has 3000 tanks and 3000 artilleries.
Its simply Germany puts like 1% of their GDP into army, while Russia puts like 20%. And money dont win wars. German soldiers during wartime gets paid about 1000EUR/day, while Russians pay their 10EUR/day. They can send 100 soldiers for a cost of single german.

Russia didnt send some of their best, newest weapons to fight Ukraine yet, saving them for later wars.
We dont know how many of these they have exactly, but its better to be pesimistic than optimistic.

Remember that Russia has a big impact on who wins USA elections. We know Trump doesnt want USA troops in Europe, and there will be more USA politicians like him. Europeans need to take care about our own defense, dont always look on uncle Sam!


its clear that russia has not unleashed their potential in the current war

but they will still get pounded into dust by european forces, if they make one move beyond ukraine, not gonna happen
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Jun 7 2022 04:11pm
Quote (Djunior @ Jun 8 2022 01:09am)
What is this shit even, you sound worse than Qanon by now.

Russia isn't interested in attacking NATO why would they be interested in that??




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Jun 7 2022 04:21pm
Quote (JohnnyMcCoy @ Jun 8 2022 01:11am)
its clear that russia has not unleashed their potential in the current war

but they will still get pounded into dust by european forces, if they make one move beyond ukraine, not gonna happen


Only European nations that would be able to resist russia in case of theoretical surprise invasion are :
Poland (would still be very hard first weeks for them as russia would attack from Belarus/occupied Ukraine)
Turkey
Great Britain
Finland (only defensive war capable)
France

thats it, all other EU armies are basically parade/support armed forces. And in event of invasion against Baltic states, I see only Poland/Great Britain/Maybe Finland(In Estonia) somewhat providing actual manpower which at that point wouldn't do much.
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Jun 7 2022 04:22pm
Quote (Lvivz @ Jun 8 2022 12:11am)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4oDr-DGFGQ


Those nations are already NATO members. My question in my above post is why would Russia want to invade NATO countries (they don't because they can't, not even talking about the possibility of nuclear war which would spell disaster for all involved)

That video claiming Russia would simply take NATO countries is ludicrous. It's simply not on.
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Jun 7 2022 04:26pm
Quote (Djunior @ 8 Jun 2022 00:09)
What is this shit even, you sound worse than Qanon by now.

Russia isn't interested in attacking NATO why would they be interested in that??


Russia is currently desperately low on their population. They can like triple, quadruple their population and therefore power by attacking Europe.

Quote (JohnnyMcCoy @ 8 Jun 2022 00:11)
its clear that russia has not unleashed their potential in the current war

but they will still get pounded into dust by european forces, if they make one move beyond ukraine, not gonna happen


Sorry to disappoint you, but whenever there is a war, there is also a secret diplomacy that takes place between nations.
Officially Germany could even declare war to Russia, but make secret agreements with Russia that they arent sending troops and Russia doesnt attack German cities in return.
We have had such situation in Europe in 1939, when countries officially declared war to Nazi Germany but at the same time said "we arent ready to go to fight, so we will need some time before we can come help".
Remember lately American retreat from Afghanistan? Americans made secret agreement with Talibans, and didnt tell their Afghanistan government allies about it.
This is how the world works, sadly.
Also NATO article5 is very soft: Upon such attack, each member state is to assist by taking "such action as [the member state] deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Soft, soft, soft, "action as they deem necessary"

This post was edited by Ironfister on Jun 7 2022 04:31pm
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