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Jan 11 2022 04:59pm
Quote (Goomshill @ Jan 11 2022 04:38pm)
They are both at the city the outbreak began and close enough that its meaningless to explain away the origins. Movement of people within the city is enough that geographical clustering can't tell you the origin with any certainty. If it was an outbreak 2000 miles away at the Yunnan caves it would be a different case. There are endless scenarios where someone moved around in Wuhan after being exposed to a virus with its nexus at the WIV. And they certainly had plenty to cover up by blaming the wet market, that wiped their hands clean of any state responsibility.


In which case a virus origin literally anywhere would follow the same pattern.

Since it would only be noticed when the first person came into the first highly populated area regardless of its Origins

There might have been 10 people sick first and some rural town but it's not going to make the news and Spark the start of an investigation when 10 people in a rural town get sick


I'm not opposed to an accidental leak of a non modified virus being the case, I'm just pointing out you are acting like you have a Smoking Gun when at best you have weak circumstantial evidence

This post was edited by NetflixAdaptationWidow on Jan 11 2022 05:01pm
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Jan 11 2022 05:01pm
Quote (Sioux @ 11 Jan 2022 23:30)
"Buttload of evidence". All there was is rumor. Please use facts instead of emotion to make your analysis of the situation. Just because the viral ancestor hasn't been found in a wild population doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Viral genetics are tricky at best, frustrating at worst and spreading misinformation because you understand half the words in use doesn't help anyone.


By now, it's clear that we will never obtain a smoking gun proof that definitively settles the origin of the virus one way or the other, so the debate must necessarily focus on evidence and plausibility.
Now, what sounds more plausible?


A: It was a lab accident based on some lab peon breaking protocol, followed subsequently by the researchers, then local government and finally the national Chinese government all covering it up in an attempt to save face.
B: It was a zoonosis, a bat coronavirus (whose viral ancestor hasn't been found yet) jumped to humans, it's super efficient at spreading in a human population.... and it was a pure coincidence that in all of huge China, this happened in the one city where gain of function research on bat coronaviruses is carried out.
C: It was a bioweapon which was deliberately released by the Chinese government to make relative economic gains and to put pressure on the democracies of the West.



Hint: the most plausible explanation by far is A.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jan 11 2022 05:04pm
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Jan 11 2022 05:02pm
Quote (Sioux @ Jan 11 2022 02:56pm)
Literally nothing you've said is evidence of any sort and relying on Project Veritas to be your data underlying the lab leak hypothesis is laughable.


I'm not relying on Project Veritas. They are merely reporting on a valid US military document authored by a US Marine major whom himself had access to classified documents, upon which he has apparently based his report.

The truth is that Covid was developed in a lab. All of the evidence thus far has pointed to this and everything coming out now only further reinforces this undeniable reality. The only thing that is up for debate is whether it was indeed an accidental leak, or if the leak was deliberate on the part of those whom stood to gain from it.

Not that I expect the idiots who have had their heads buried in the sands for the past few years to understand that. You are more than welcome to keep your eyes shut. I could care less. By denying yourself the truth you do a disservice to yourself and yourself only, it certainly doesn't bother me.
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Jan 11 2022 05:03pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jan 11 2022 05:01pm)
By now, it's clear that we will never obtain a smoking gun proof that definitively settles the origin of the virus one way or the other, so the debate must necessarily focus on evidence and plausibility.
Now, what sounds more plausible?


A: It was a lab accident based on some lab peon breaking protocol, followed subsequently by the researchers, then local government and finally the national Chinese government all covering it up in an attempt to save face.
B: It was a zoonosis, a bat coronavirus whose viral ancestor hasn't been found yet jumping to humans, it's super efficient at spreading in a human population, and it was a pure coincidence that all this happened in the city where gain of function research on bat coronaviruses took place.
C: It was a bioweapon which was deliberately released by the Chinese government to make relative economic gains and to put pressure on the democracies of the West.



Hint: the most plausible explanation by far is A.


Your characterization of number 2 is very flawed. We have strong evidence of zoonotic origin. The best you will ever get for a lab leak case is that it was a natural sample obtained and improperly stored
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Jan 11 2022 05:08pm
Quote (NetflixAdaptationWidow @ 12 Jan 2022 00:03)
Your characterization of number 2 is very flawed. We have strong evidence of zoonotic origin. The best you will ever get for a lab leak case is that it was a natural sample obtained and improperly stored


Then it was still a lab leak.

Also, is there really such strong evidence that the original strain which caused the pandemic was a pure, unmodified zoonosis, rather than a sample on which gain of function research was conducted, for example to increase transmissibility? Genuine question, maybe this evidence exists and I missed it.
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Jan 11 2022 05:09pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jan 11 2022 06:01pm)
By now, it's clear that we will never obtain a smoking gun proof that definitively settles the origin of the virus one way or the other, so the debate must necessarily focus on evidence and plausibility.
Now, what sounds more plausible?


A: It was a lab accident based on some lab peon breaking protocol, followed subsequently by the researchers, then local government and finally the national Chinese government all covering it up in an attempt to save face.
B: It was a zoonosis, a bat coronavirus (whose viral ancestor hasn't been found yet) jumped to humans, it's super efficient at spreading in a human population.... and it was a pure coincidence that in all of huge China, this happened in the one city where gain of function research on bat coronaviruses is carried out.
C: It was a bioweapon which was deliberately released by the Chinese government to make relative economic gains and to put pressure on the democracies of the West.



Hint: the most plausible explanation by far is A.


Definitely A. Probably has something to do with the Wuhan Institute of Virology maybe...just maybe....



:lol:

Start at 2:50

This post was edited by Skinned on Jan 11 2022 05:11pm
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Jan 11 2022 05:09pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jan 11 2022 03:08pm)
Then it was still a lab leak.

Also, is there really such strong evidence that the original strain which caused the pandemic was a pure, unmodified zoonosis, rather than a sample on which gain of function research was conducted, for example to increase transmissibility? Genuine question, maybe this evidence exists and I missed it.


The genetics of the virus match wild-type strains pretty well minus the furin cleavage site. It isn't inconceivable the mutation would arise on its own in nature, as goom has already pointed out, its happened in the wild before.
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Jan 11 2022 05:11pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jan 11 2022 05:08pm)
Then it was still a lab leak.

Also, is there really such strong evidence that the original strain which caused the pandemic was a pure, unmodified zoonosis, rather than a sample on which gain of function research was conducted, for example to increase transmissibility? Genuine question, maybe this evidence exists and I missed it.


Yes, we've got basically the entire family tree constructed this point except for whatever the immediate step was before human infection. There are loads of candidates for predecessor viruses and it really doesn't matter which one it was.

We can be incredibly confident it was not any kind of game of function experiment gone wrong. There are no signs of that kind of modification in the virus genome. The absolute best you could get is that it was created through serial passage with some other animal but even that is pretty suspect and wouldn't be differentiable from a wild virus

If you've got a big project with dozens and dozens of animals undergoing cereal passage that's kind of hard to keep a secret

This post was edited by NetflixAdaptationWidow on Jan 11 2022 05:11pm
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Jan 11 2022 05:13pm
Quote (NetflixAdaptationWidow @ Jan 11 2022 04:59pm)
In which case a virus origin literally anywhere would follow the same pattern.

Since it would only be noticed when the first person came into the first highly populated area regardless of its Origins

There might have been 10 people sick first and some rural town but it's not going to make the news and Spark the start of an investigation when 10 people in a rural town get sick


I'm not opposed to an accidental leak of a non modified virus being the case, I'm just pointing out you are acting like you have a Smoking Gun when at best you have weak circumstantial evidence


If it happened anywhere, at random, it would appear first in a city. Sure. Would it appear first in a city that just so happens to be hosting gain of function research of adding that exact same furin cleavage site to coronaviruses?
Its 'circumstantial evidence' in the same sense that finding a killer's DNA and bloody fingerprints at the murder scene is still 'circumstantial'. They aren't direct evidence, they could be explained away by incredibly unlikely null hypotheses. It still requires inference, reasoning and allows the construction of denials however improbable they may be. Maybe the murderer says his car broke down in front of the woman's house, she invited him inside her house and then inside her cunt and then he left as two puerto rican guys walked in. Just an incredibly unlikely coincidence.

There are over 10,000 cities on earth, not including small towns. Lyme disease is named after the town of 2,352 people. And it just so happens that Covid-19 had its first major outbreak at a crime scene with the CCP's bloody fingerprints all over it. And they blamed two puerto rican guys.
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Jan 11 2022 05:15pm
Quote (Goomshill @ Jan 11 2022 03:13pm)
If it happened anywhere, at random, it would appear first in a city. Sure. Would it appear first in a city that just so happens to be hosting gain of function research of adding that exact same furin cleavage site to coronaviruses?
Its 'circumstantial evidence' in the same sense that finding a killer's DNA and bloody fingerprints at the murder scene is still 'circumstantial'. They aren't direct evidence, they could be explained away by incredibly unlikely null hypotheses. It still requires inference, reasoning and allows the construction of denials however improbable they may be. Maybe the murderer says his car broke down in front of the woman's house, she invited him inside her house and then inside her cunt and then he left as two puerto rican guys walked in. Just an incredibly unlikely coincidence.

There are over 10,000 cities on earth, not including small towns. Lyme disease is named after the town of 2,352 people. And it just so happens that Covid-19 had its first major outbreak at a crime scene with the CCP's bloody fingerprints all over it. And they blamed two puerto rican guys.


There's no evidence they were doing gain of function research on furin cleavage. The viral institute was founded in a region with a high circulating population of coronaviruses in the wild to study.
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