Quote (dro94 @ 5 Jun 2022 09:52)
What's interesting from a mil standpoint is how the Ukrainians are reinforcing the furthest areas of the Donbass with equipment rather than accumulating them at a more strategically sound location like Slovyansk or Kramatorsk. They know Severodonetsk and Lysychansk are prone to encirclement, but would rather fight there than retreat with man and materiel intact
To an uninformed civilian like myself it doesn't make much sense, but perhaps their intelligence or that of their Western allies points to some Russian weaknesses we are not privy to. It could be as simple as them knowing Russia lacks infantry to take urban areas easily, so are using Severodonetsk as a way of attritioning Russian forces. Same goes for river crossing the Siverskyi Donets, which is perilous and requires excellent combined arms execution
Still, who wins in a war of attrition? With a significant equipment advantage and control of the ports, surely it is Russia, especially when they can switch to the defensive after finishing the land grab which will consume fewer resources. We haven't seen extensive counterattacks from Ukraine yet so we don't know if they are capable of retaking large swathes of land back (organised Russian retreats notwithstanding)
Did you see the map? Severodonetsk cant be really fully encircled, as there is a river that soldiers can cross when there is an order to retreat.
We are not Ukrainian generals, but so far they didnt let Russians encircle them, except for Mariupol where they left soldiers deliberately to keep Russians busy.
Nobody knows who will win this war, and what will be the result.
In my opinion, if Ukraine gets some serious security guarantees from NATO, they can leave Donbas in Russian hands.
But it will be up to Ukraine to decide, and they for sure shouldnt give it like for free, because Putin will simply regroup and hit them again.