Quote (babun1024 @ 31 May 2022 13:38)
I wasn't following the discussion over here due to lack of time or busy schedule. Ukraine is about to lose the war or better said most of its professional army. I've got the same info from my Russian neighbour and my female Ukrainian college at work. I don't know where they get their information from but most of the time they're more on point than the whole press.
I really doubt that the Ukrainian high command is so incompetent that they allow their best troops to get encircled and wiped out just like that, not when the threat of said encirclement has been looming for weeks. Imho, they are prepared for it and will know when to pull out. The bigger question is if they can win the big battle, the one that's gonna be fought for Slovjansk/Kramatorsk in 1-3 weeks.
The current battles over Sieverodonetsk were just the prelude; and a battle that the Ukrainians were always going to lose eventually. Defending this salient which was surrounded by Russian-controlled territory on three sides was an impossible task from the get go. Imho, the main strategic objective for the Ukrainians in Sieverodonetsk was to slow and wear down the Russian advance. Not sure if they slowed them down "enough" though.
In general, it's really hard to assess how a war is going when the battles are fought with a static front and lots of attrition on both sides. In the early stages of this war, we could use territory as a proxy for military success, but that's no longer a useful metric, now that the war has shifted to a small-scale area.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on May 31 2022 06:17am