Putin =/= Hitler and 2022 =/= 1940

Get over it

I've already explained this before. A rushed oil embargo will only send oil prices soaring, which counteracts the loss in revenue that Russia makes from its (now diminished) sales. That's the short-term outlook. In the medium-term, an oil embargo will only lead to a reshuffling of the global oil market, with Russia selling more to China and India, who then buy less from Gulf states, who are thus free to sell more to the Europeans. In the end, China and Opec will be the big winners, Europe will be the loser, with Russia falling somewhere in between and not being guaranteed to actually end up worse off than before.

So while an oil embargo is indeed possible without prompting a full-blown economic collapse, it does come with a heavy economic price for ourselves while it is doubtful if it will even be effective. Not every kind of sanction that would be feasible is also useful.

Russian is still selling oil to Asean. Not Singapore though, but the entire of Asean.
A 3 billion combination of India and China plus another 650 to 700 million people combined.
And we are not even taking into account of Bangladesh , Sri Lanka and even South Korea ( who is still buying Russian oil ).

USA with a population of 300 plus million already consume more oil and gas than China and her population is 4 times the size of the Untied States.

Do you really think China and India and Asean will buy less from Gulf States? I would think maybe not. As a matter of fact I think oil and gas consumption will only increase.
If anything Gulf states are looking at China and India and Asean because they will be the largest consumer sooner rather than later.
And since now United States has turn from a consumer to a competitor in Oil and Gas towards the Gulf states , we will see how things will unfold within the next couple of years.

I am not even sure if Russia has enought LNG boats to sell its natural gas

Dear friend, EU has already cut its Russian oil imports by 2/3, to a total of 12% of our oil usage (was 35% before the war).
Russia can sell to China and India, but they wont pay them as much as Europeans. Also Russia doesnt have oil pipelines to these countries, needs to use more expensive and difficult transport routes, like ships or trucks.
You can see the difference chart between Russian urals and western Brent oil. Russians are now getting much lower price, and lets keep it this way. The less money they have, the worse they will do at war.
https://www.neste.com/investors/market-data/urals-brent-price-difference#9e276255

I dont see much difference.
The positives: there is 1 villain country, not two as in ww2, and its slightly weaker than in 1940.
And west is more powerful and united.
So it looks better now. But if we let Russia grow it will became a bigger problem.

Btw i just checked: France has 4 ports able to get LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas). Especially 1 in Dunkerque able to receive the famous Q-MAX from Qatar (266k m3 capacity)

On the other hand Germany has a much, much, bigger issue... Like they are facing a real threat of a recession if Russia suddently cut off the gas.
There's not even pipelines within EU to transport gas.... From sea ports in France to Germany, the picture below explains it all:

So Germany is building a port costing 450 millions € ATM, finished in 2024.
But still i guess they have an emergency plan, curious to know more about it.
Would probably be to cut off gas in all homes excepted hospitals and related.
For heavy industry i don't know.



This post was edited by Saucisson6000 on May 26 2022 02:01am

You have no idea what you're talking about. Instead of mutual security the West persisted on surrounding Russia and installing all kind of weapon systems right on it's borders. You cannot deny it it's history. It's explained to you multiple times.

Russia is not weaker they got 6K nukes. Already explained to you.

Keep it going, press on further to the East, pump Ukraine full of weapons and so on and we'll see what will happen to you and your country. Good luck.

The partial solution to this german problem are floating gas terminals.
Germany plans to have its first terminal operational in Wilhelmshaven before the year is out, allowing for the import of upwards of 5 billion cubic meters per year. The second ship, also from the Norwegian company Hoegh, will be in place by early 2023.
The problem is the supply side. This year there wont be enough gas available to all Europe to replace Russian gas.
Should be enough to keep houses warm, but companies will be limited and nobody likes that.
Honestly i believe this is the reason why Germany is so soft on Russia.

Putin declined to apply to enter NATO... Even if it was possible:
Vladimir Putin wanted Russia to join Nato but did not want his country to have to go through the usual application process and stand in line “with a lot of countries that don’t matter”, according to a former secretary general of the transatlantic alliance.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/04/ex-nato-head-says-putin-wanted-to-join-alliance-early-on-in-his-rule


‘Well, we’re not standing in line with a lot of countries that don’t matter.’”