I think the idea behind the sanctions was always to diminish Russia's economy and thus its long-term ability to sustain a war.



Those talking heads were idiots then. For my part, I've argued since the outbreak of this war that the sanctions will only cripple Russia in the long run, but not impact its ability to wage the war in the short term. Which is also why I've been supportive of most sanctions, but not of sudden energy embargos. (Since those would hurt ourselves more than Russia while not stopping the war.)

And I'm just a bored armchair pundit who's talking out of his ass. Those talking heads who are doing this for a living really should know better.

The sanctions clearly don't hurt Russia enough to stop them, and they're getting the better end of the mutual economic plummet between east and west. The sanctions were intended to isolate and dissuade Russia, and instead the rest of the world stayed aligned with Russia and their economy has taken less of a hit than ours and they remained committed to the invasion. They still took a hit. And likewise, America will weather a food shortage from Ukraine, we don't need their wheat to survive. Its Africa that takes the hit, global food prices that go up and hurt Americans, a humanitarian crisis will flood the EU again.
Russia is more interested in finding leverage to divide the US and EU than they are in merely lifting Western sanctions for their economic purposes. They found their proportional issue to wave at the west for sanctions, an issue the EU has reason to care about. Its not America that's going to be weathering the aftereffects of a global food shortage and energy crisis at the same time come winter.





Everyone knew Putin was exerting geopolitical influence by energy exports, you said it, they said it, Trump said it. It was Trump who tried to do something about it while the EU dragged their feet. And our LNG market was going to wind up subsidized to the point of an economic burden to the US if anything. Trump was never some two faced schemer capable of keeping grand plans in secret, he just said it bluntly, we needed to make the EU more dependent on us and less on Russia. And that is the America First economic agenda, which was one and the same with some deep geopolitical strategy. I mean, they published some 1000 page document laying out the Trump Doctrine in great detail, publicly available, that laid out specifically how we needed to oppose Russia and China by vying for economic influence instead of relying on military interventions. That whole "aggressive economics instead of aggressive military" strategy was etched in marble

The neoliberal counterargument has been an absolutely wild ride of contradictions. First it was that Russia wasn't a threat at all and we needed to foster better relations with them. Then it was that we needed to combat Russia militarily and poke them full of holes in proxy wars. Then it was that we need to help them militarily in proxy wars to restore global order because they were winning the refugee crisis. Then it was that we need to cooperate with Russia economically even though they pose a threat to us because reasons. Then it was that we need to oppose Russia economically and militarily and plunge into world war 3.

Trump's been saying the same schtick for something like 50 years now. He was saying it about Japan eating our lunch. At least then, he wasn't arguing with people who wanted to nuke Hiroshima a second time.

Maldives in Siberia

95% Luhansk oblast to be occupied by Russian forces according to Ukrainian Military Luhansk Oblast Administration, Gayday (nothing funny, that's his last name, could be Serguei Gayday, yet not that gay).


This post was edited by Norlander on May 25 2022 01:20pm

Do you have any evidence for this claim? Russia is set for a significant GDP contraction this year while forecasts still see positive (albeit diminished) growth for Europe. Inflation rates are also higher in Russia than the EU. And in the intermediate future, the European states shifting away from Russian gas and oil will undermine Russia's revenue since shipment to their new customers will come with greater costs and lower prices. And that's not even talking about the issues they will run into once they need to replace Western high-tech components in their infrastructure.



The sanctions were intended to take away Russia's ability to sustain a war in the long-term, and to prove to the world that violations of the international order come with a heavy price, even for a nulear power which is not at risk of direct intervention.
Also, the rest of the world (except for China) is not "aligned" with Russia just because they refuse to go along with certain economic sanctions. For most third world countries who don't have a large trade volume with Russia, this is more about rejecting Western hegemony than endorsing Russia's war or Russia's perspective on the world.




Until the US government imposes export controls, America will suffer from soaring prices on the global food and energy markets to nearly the same extent as other places. If anything, inflation is currently higher in the U.S. than the EU. Likewise, food and gas shortages in Central America can very well exacerbate the situation at the southern US border.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on May 25 2022 02:06pm

We have a richer population with more disposable income though, we'll be fine.

From a lot of the stuff I'm reading the cracks in the resolve will 100% come in Europe. I pointed to this awhile back. Certain countries in Europe in the short term can ask their populations to accept economic sacrifices for the 'greater good' to defend Ukraine, to stand up to Russia and so on. The longer this goes on, the less likely people are to accept those sacrifices though. Right now I'm seeing a lot of pushback from places like Hungary, Cyprus even Italy. France, Germany are also very quiet and we can all kind of tell they aren't really dedicated to divorcing from Russia. It's only a matter of time before politicians are forced to chose between the economy and being pro-war in Europe and my bet is a lot of countries who aren't in eastern/central Europe will absolutely choose economics. Those eastern countries also don't really have enough economic pull to steer EU policy IMO. With time I can see Germany, France, Italy, Austria, Netherlands start to ignore the demands of the economic minnows of the east and focus on their self interests.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on May 25 2022 03:30pm

You have more poverty and far more porous social safety nets than Western Europe though, while the Eastern Europeans will be more willing to put up with economic sacrifice because they feel more directly threatened by Russia.


But that's the point: most of the sanctions have only a very miniscule impact on the European economies and even divorcing ourselves gradually from Russian gas and oil and moving away from it when we are ready would not ask huge sacrifices from us. Also note that a lot of the inflation woes which are now being blamed entirely on Putin precede the war in Ukraine and actually stem from the covid era policies.

The only thing that would ask untenable economic sacrifice from the European people is an immediate or very short-term gas and oil embargo. For this very reason, I have been arguing against these embargos for months. We are only talking about these toxic policies because the EU commission and the mainstream politicians in Western Europe are fucking useless and complete idiots. There is no brilliant Russian strategy forcing us to commit economic suicide; this wedge is needlessly driven by our own leaders out of ideological delusions and the urge to engage in misguided virtue signalling.

This is the funny part. Russians would call him Gayday but in Ukrainian hes Hayday. Afaik hes aligned with Ukraine so it would be the latter. Just like Luhansk/Lugansk

Crickets from the libtard peanut gallery.

Please differentiate gas and oil embargos.
Its correct that it would be very difficult to get rid of Russia gas this year in Europe. USA sent ships, and Im grateful for that gift of friendship, but I read that its not enough sadly.
On the other hand, oil embargo is mostly no problem. There are only like 3 small countries, that have problem with it, as they arent ready for processing other blends of oil and need time to get ready, and maybe some small financial support too.
European Commision proposed like a year temporary exception for these countries, its not a problem for me, we still ban 98% Russia oil so its still great.
I believe I read that Russia makes even more money from Oil than gas, totally worth it.

One of the pro-russian politicians in Europę said, that Hitler was innocent killing jews, as he only gave spoken orders and not written ones, and since there is no written order he is innocent.
Putin says its not a war but a special operation.
Sometime we will see people who say that Putin didnt know anything about the war, as he only ordered a small "special operation".
That's the second side that you are talking about. Just a total bullshit, nothing else.
Truth is one.