This is one of the better analysis i've seen on the war as of now. This guy is an ex-CIA officer that focused extensively on Russia. Solid account to follow.

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1529475216606478336

I have a fan club with a large volume of shit in their heads.



This is great, only have to buy and maintain a gas boiler now...

When you have central heating you pay less for gas. About $100 for everything including 500 mb/s internet and unlimited cell plus stationary phone if you live alone. Ukrainians pay even less.
My second appartments don't have warm water though, so I bought Czech gas boiler, heating is central but shitty, it depends on supplying company, using electric heating if winter is cold.

This post was edited by Norlander on May 25 2022 11:03am

Hopefully with climate change we will soon be happy to not die at 60°C like in India, Pakistan etc...

You mean I was wrong thinking you was a northern african muzzy?

I think you are wrong since the day you clearly said that extermination camps never existed (or were cool working camps and nobody died)
And that american slavery market was under Jews control.

So a pakistanis muzzy the whole time.
Should have known.

But don't shake your hand either way, right.

Slight contradiction to your previous arguments, isn't it?

First, you and like-minded posters here in this thread argued that the sanctions don't hurt Russia meaningfully, that they're just shrugging them off while their economy keeps humming, the rouble being stronger than before the war, etc.
Now, you depict Russia's poisoned bait of lifting the sea blockade in exchange for a lift on Western sanctions as another brilliant maneuver by the Russians.

If the sanctions on Russian exports and banks weren't hurting Russia, the concession they would demand in exchange for the lifted sea blockade would be something else, say a stop to Western arms shipment into Ukraine or a lift of the ban on microchip exports from the West to Russia.




1. Russia/the Soviet Union had been a reliable supplier of commodities for decades. Even at the height of the Cold War, they never budged on their gas shipments to Western Europe.
2. It is absolutely clear that this war will leave Russia significantly weaker economically and geopolitically in the long run. It is irrational. European leaders had no illusions about Putin, they knew he is a scumbag and a villain. But until he decided to pull the trigger on the invasion of Ukraine, he had always acted in rational fashion. Often times malicious, often times against our interests, but always rational.
3. Is is an inescapable fact that Europe depends on imports to meet its energy and commodity demand. Whoever supplies Europe will gain influence, and unfortunately, almost all oil and gas states in the world are autocratic regimes full of human rights abuses and hostile ideology. Just look at all the shit the US put up with in the ME throughout the years because they depended on oil from the region. Replacing Russia with Qatar or Saudi-Arabia is not a big step up for Europe.
4. Trump wanted to increase the world market share of US LNG and increase the influence of the US on Europe in this fashion. Are you seriously suggesting that Trump realized how much of a dangerous adversary Putin was before everyone else, that his primary motivation was to save the stupid Europeans from themselves, rather than advancing American business interests? His arguments were nothing but a justification for his nationalistic "America First" economic agenda, not some deep geopolitical strategy.

Excellent analysis, thanks for posting!
I agree with most of his assessment.


Ha, I've made pretty much the same argument just yesterday. ^^

Another interesting quote:

Right now, I think this is the modal outcome for the war: Russia's concerted offense slowly captures all of Luhansk and makes gains in Donetsk. The decisive battle will play out around Kramatorsk. Either way, after the battle for the Donbass is over, both sides' forces will be depleted and unable to mount further offenses. As Western heavy arms pour into Ukraine over the summer, the initiative will shift to Ukraine. They will try to retake the region around Kherson, no idea if it works. If it does, Ukraine will also try to retake the Donbass. I expect these attempts to fail and Russia to keep the Donbass as well as the land strip between Donetsk and Crimea. Then, we will finally arrive at a stalemate in which both sides have nothing to gain anymore and are willing to sincerely negotiate a peace treaty.

Of course sanctions damage them, I don't think anyone argued that. It's like arguing against that the sky is blue. I think the counter-argument to the sanctions is and was that it won't actually change their push with the war. There's so much evidence of this if we look globally. North Korea, Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, etc. Decades of sanctions doesn't actually get the despots to change their mind.

Sanctions are slowing and forcing their economy to contract and change but talking heads 3 months ago were forecasting that sanctions would completely shut down the Russian economy with their currency crumbling, begging for food, etc. Reality is no where near that, I think most of the western world is actually shocked and kind of annoyed how well they've handled sanctions thus far.