Quote (ofthevoid @ 25 May 2022 00:13)
Ukraine joining NATO was not and will not be acceptable I think that's a hill that Russia is willing to pour a lot into, regardless what happens in the Donbas.
No they would of not have been allowed to chose freely all of those things, nor would the media have been free, similarly as it was pre-war when the pro-Russians were ran out of town and marginalized and intimidated. To me though as someone that has been to Ukraine both pre and post 2014 painting this as some ultimate struggle for freedom and democracy is kind of nonsensical and not consistent with reality. They were always a corrupt state. The 2014 revolution wasn't about democracy persevering over cronyism but rather getting rid of one puppet and exchanging it for another, meanwhile the country still remained corrupt and looted by oligarchs post 2014. Yes I think ultimately leaning towards the west would of been best for Ukraine if there was no war, but the way it was done, violently and telling half of the country that was pro-east basically to stfu and accept it was not the right way.
I totally agree that Ukraine was and is a corrupt shithole. The thing is that there was no hope for this sad state of affairs to change if they had remained aligned with Russia, while there is hope that things improve if the country orients itself toward the EU.
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They are going after territory that can ultimately be ideologically turned, where tons of Russians and pro-Russian loyalists are.
I believe many Russian-speaking or Russia-positive Ukrainians have been firmly pushed into the pro-West camp by this war and all the destruction and crimes that came with it.
The Donbass and Crimea are probably the only places in Ukraine which have any hope of having a pro-Russian majority post-war. Definitely not in Odessa or Kharkiv, cities which had a large share of Russian-speakers, and definitely not in the rural south around Kherson.
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I genuinely think if Ukraine sat down with Russia today and said you can keep the Donbas, Kherson, southern Zap the war would come to an end and make some pact to not join NATO the war would come to an end.
And I believe that Putin would interpret this suggestion as an indicator of weakness and be emboldened to continue his war efforts and/or to demand even more concessions. Pretty much all Ukrainian and Western experts agree that peace negotiations only make sense for Ukraine when it is doing so from a position of (relative) strength.