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May 24 2022 03:56pm
Quote (dro94 @ 24 May 2022 23:46)
What is obvious at this point is that the Ukrainians have taken significant casualties and degradation of their military in this war, just like Russia have. If they didn't, then they'd have likely aunched a counterattack to take back Kherson, as Russian positions stretch past the river so are vulnerable. But there hasn't been movement on that axis for weeks

Ukraine has an advantage over Russia in their ability to replace combat losses with fresh recruits, but it takes months to train them and then gain combat experience. The battlefield will keep shifting, we can expect Russia to take more of the Donbass now, but we don't know whether Ukraine will retreat from Severodonetsk and Lysychansk to avoid envelopment


The same holds true for Russian conscripts and militias/proxy fighters. I think the true advantage of Ukraine over Russia is that they are essentially backed by the entire arms industry of NATO, which in the long run completely outclasses the Russian capabilities, both technologically and quantitatively. The heavy arms being sent to Ukraine have to be procured and shipped, and their soldiers have to be trained to use them, so it's gonna take a couple of weeks before this equipment arrives. I've read from multiple sources that the Ukrainian command expects the tides in this war to turn by July or August when they can finally deploy the heavy artillery, tanks and all that stuff to the frontline.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on May 24 2022 03:57pm
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May 24 2022 04:01pm
Quote (dro94 @ May 24 2022 11:08pm)
Russia starting to make good progress now they're concentrating on smaller areas. Near total air superiority in the Donbass is taking a toll on the Ukrainians, they aren't getting air defence systems out there quick enough and Severodonetsk is almost cut off from resupply now. The Ukrainians will need to make some tough decisions over which hill to fight on


there are rumours about NATO advisors telling the ukranian government to make a rather big retreat to keep the combat strength up
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May 24 2022 04:13pm
Quote (JohnnyMcCoy @ 25 May 2022 00:01)
there are rumours about NATO advisors telling the ukranian government to make a rather big retreat to keep the combat strength up


That should be a no brainer. The Severodonetsk salient is surrounded by Russia-controlled territory on 3 sides. Much more difficult to defend than territory with a straight front line.
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May 24 2022 04:13pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ May 24 2022 05:38pm)
That would only be true if total defeat was inevitable, which is not the case.

Do you think this would have been enough for the Russians? Would the rest of Ukraine been allowed to join NATO or the EU then, free to elect a pro-Western president, pick its trade partners and energy supplier, hold democratic elections and allow a free press to flourish? In my humble opinion, the answer is a clear 'no'. Russia would not have been satisfied until Ukraine is a Russia-aligned vassal state.

If they had been allowed to capture the Donbass without resistance, why would the Russians have stopped there, why shouldn't they have marched on toward Kharkiv, Dniepro and Kyiv? The purpose of this war, of this fighting, of the dead soldiers, is that Russia will only capture the Donbass before its military capacities are exhausted, instead of taking all of Ukraine. The purpose of this war is that at least the bulk of the Ukrainian people can live in freedom and peace the way they see fit, rather than having to live an unfree existence under the Russian thumb.


Ukraine joining NATO was not and will not be acceptable I think that's a hill that Russia is willing to pour a lot into, regardless what happens in the Donbas.

No they would of not have been allowed to chose freely all of those things, nor would the media have been free, similarly as it was pre-war when the pro-Russians were ran out of town and marginalized and intimidated. To me though as someone that has been to Ukraine both pre and post 2014 painting this as some ultimate struggle for freedom and democracy is kind of nonsensical and not consistent with reality. They were always a corrupt state. The 2014 revolution wasn't about democracy persevering over cronyism but rather getting rid of one puppet and exchanging it for another, meanwhile the country still remained corrupt and looted by oligarchs post 2014. Yes I think ultimately leaning towards the west would of been best for Ukraine if there was no war, but the way it was done, violently and telling half of the country that was pro-east basically to stfu and accept it was not the right way.

I get this point and somewhat agree but not entirely. There's no scenario imo in which Russia will try and march on west Ukraine trying to take it town by town. They are going after territory that can ultimately be ideologically turned, where tons of Russians and pro-Russian loyalists are. I genuinely think if Ukraine sat down with Russia today and said you can keep the Donbas, Kherson, southern Zap and make some pact to not join NATO the war would come to an end.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on May 24 2022 04:16pm
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May 24 2022 04:20pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ May 24 2022 09:56pm)
The same holds true for Russian conscripts and militias/proxy fighters. I think the true advantage of Ukraine over Russia is that they are essentially backed by the entire arms industry of NATO, which in the long run completely outclasses the Russian capabilities, both technologically and quantitatively. The heavy arms being sent to Ukraine have to be procured and shipped, and their soldiers have to be trained to use them, so it's gonna take a couple of weeks before this equipment arrives. I've read from multiple sources that the Ukrainian command expects the tides in this war to turn by July or August when they can finally deploy the heavy artillery, tanks and all that stuff to the frontline.


Not quite, the DNR/LNR mobilisation is facing a lot more resistance than with Ukrainians, they have morale issues and there are far fewer people there. Russian conscripts are (according to most sources) not being forced to stay on but rather being offered attractive salaries, plus it's illegal under Russian law to send them into combat and it's deeply unpopular with the public. Obviously, some conscripts were sent into Ukraine but it's not like there will be a flood of Russian conscripts going into combat
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May 24 2022 04:21pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ 25 May 2022 00:13)
Ukraine joining NATO was not and will not be acceptable I think that's a hill that Russia is willing to pour a lot into, regardless what happens in the Donbas.

No they would of not have been allowed to chose freely all of those things, nor would the media have been free, similarly as it was pre-war when the pro-Russians were ran out of town and marginalized and intimidated. To me though as someone that has been to Ukraine both pre and post 2014 painting this as some ultimate struggle for freedom and democracy is kind of nonsensical and not consistent with reality. They were always a corrupt state. The 2014 revolution wasn't about democracy persevering over cronyism but rather getting rid of one puppet and exchanging it for another, meanwhile the country still remained corrupt and looted by oligarchs post 2014. Yes I think ultimately leaning towards the west would of been best for Ukraine if there was no war, but the way it was done, violently and telling half of the country that was pro-east basically to stfu and accept it was not the right way.

I totally agree that Ukraine was and is a corrupt shithole. The thing is that there was no hope for this sad state of affairs to change if they had remained aligned with Russia, while there is hope that things improve if the country orients itself toward the EU.

Quote
They are going after territory that can ultimately be ideologically turned, where tons of Russians and pro-Russian loyalists are.

I believe many Russian-speaking or Russia-positive Ukrainians have been firmly pushed into the pro-West camp by this war and all the destruction and crimes that came with it.
The Donbass and Crimea are probably the only places in Ukraine which have any hope of having a pro-Russian majority post-war. Definitely not in Odessa or Kharkiv, cities which had a large share of Russian-speakers, and definitely not in the rural south around Kherson.


Quote
I genuinely think if Ukraine sat down with Russia today and said you can keep the Donbas, Kherson, southern Zap the war would come to an end and make some pact to not join NATO the war would come to an end.

And I believe that Putin would interpret this suggestion as an indicator of weakness and be emboldened to continue his war efforts and/or to demand even more concessions. Pretty much all Ukrainian and Western experts agree that peace negotiations only make sense for Ukraine when it is doing so from a position of (relative) strength.

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May 24 2022 06:17pm
Funny how the same people that are for Ukraine are against gun ownership.
What would the Ukraines have done if you took their guns?

This post was edited by sirthom on May 24 2022 06:17pm
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May 24 2022 09:51pm
Quote (Djunior @ 19 May 2022 22:00)
Looks like azov batallion neo nazis will be facing a war crime tribunal in Russia. Here's evidence of what they did to civillians trying to leave Mariupol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVA_fp3rk3I


Congratulations for posting hating speech content, here's the message from youtube if you want to know more:

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May 25 2022 12:15am
Quote (sirthom @ 24 May 2022 17:17)
Funny how the same people that are for Ukraine are against gun ownership.
What would the Ukraines have done if you took their guns?


They are only for something if it fits their agenda.

MUH UKRAINE!
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May 25 2022 12:19am
Ukraine is a statistic
Uvalde Texas is a tragedy
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