China is already seeing serious economic shrinkage, and the citizens will put up with far less without growth. China cannot grow without other countries to sell to, and Africa isn't nearly built up enough from belt and road to be that buyer.

On that note-
After the US push to compel China to rebuke Russia and Joe Biden's Taiwan gaffe, China put out a statement today formally rejecting the pressure and vowing to maintain their relationship with Russia;
https://www.newsweek.com/china-rejects-pressure-break-putin-stays-loyal-relationship-1709602


China doubled down on its relationship with Russia, rejecting pressure from world leaders to break from Moscow amid the widely condemned invasion of Ukraine, which began in late February.



We're winning so much I'm sick and tired of winning too much

China is temporarily seeing economic shrinkage because they are caught in a self-imposed trap with their ZeroCovid policy and the refusal to get effective, Western vaccines. In long-term, geostrategic terms, this is nothing more than a hiccup, a blip on the radar.

Also note that while their growth rates have trended downward, they are coming from a much higher baseline because China grew so much over the past 30 years. In absolute terms, a 5% GDP growth rate in 2022 represents more economic gains than a 9% growth rate in 1995.




Romney was talking about a scenario in which Russia uses nukes against Ukraine or NATO. Bets are off if China and India could really withstand the pressure and continue to side with them in this scenario. There has obviously been no reason in the past days for them to reverse they previous stance.
I'm with you though that Biden's comments on Taiwan were a big blunder.

It is absolutely not the zero covid policy that is causing their current slow growth. They have major systemic problems with their real-estate industry which is rippling out to every other industry, their lop-sided population distribution, and several other things. Zero covid isn't helping, but it is not the fundamental reason why China is in serious economic trouble over the next 20 years. They've been growing on the back of useless projects and policies that are turning into huge drags to long term growth.

Ukraine is an Independent country. It belongs to Russia just as other countries, just as USA: it doesnt.
Next time I will read that USA was founded by Russian people who sailed with Columbus and colonized the USA so they are just taking it back what always belonged to them.
Its all bullshit.

We can undercut Chinese manufacturing by engaging in free trade deals with African and/or SE Asian countries. We can form stronger military alliances in the South Pacific. We can improve relations with Pakistan or we can isolate Pakistan to form closer ties with India. It really depends on the goal but my point is that you can use any combination of the carrot/stick to impose your will when you're as powerful as America.



I imagine that they'd retreat before that even happened just like they did in Kiev, Sumy, Chernihiv, etc. We literally have hundreds of years of Russian military history where they retreat to more defensible positions.

Russia could also temporarily cut off natural gas to Germany to get NATO to back down. They could have proxies escalate their cyber warfare campaigns. All of the above are more likely to happen than "REEEE NUKES REEEE" because there is so much less risk involved for everyone.

I can predict that China will not act preemptively, but beyond that there's no telling how such scenarios play out. We'd be testing whether China has the ability to act decisively in its self-interest or whether it would freeze under bureaucratic inertia. China has shown its unwillingness to act and its overwhelming commitment to stability in geopolitics, so once a US-Russia conflict escalates to the nuclear stage, its clearly in China's interests to intervene in some manner. But how, I don't think we can say. Say not-NATO ukrainians sink multiple Russian ships in the black sea, Russia nukes their launching sites, Biden huffs and puffs in a national broadcast to not look weak, congressmen call for escalation. What's the play for China in that scenario? Its easy to say that its not in their interests to prevaricate and let things escalate further, but then again China is a slow moving bureaucracy. We could see them freeze like deer in headlights.

Radical pacifism is a highway to hell. We can fantasize about a world without weapons in which we all love each other and mankind lives happily ever after, but that's not the world we're living in. In reality, there are aggressors and bad faith actors and appeasing them or giving them whatever they want is not a reasonable option. Always turning the other cheek without fighting back means that the world will be ruled by the aggressors and baddies. It is a mentality which leads directly into slavery. But then again, Christianity has rightfully been called out for its slave morality many times, by Nietzsche and others.


A categorical pacifism which sees "peace" as a value in and off itself - without regard for what kind of peace it is, without concerning itself with questions of international law, justice, morals, freedom or prosperity - is a hollow, soulless, useless concept. Why were those pesky Rebels instigating a rebellion against the Empire? If they had resigned themselves to being ruled by Darth Vader and Emperor Palpatine, a lot of lives could have been saved and lots of escalation been avoided!

In my opinion, giving an attacked people the tools to defend itself (after all attempts at finding a non-military solution to the conflict have failed!) does not contradict a stance of "pragmatic pacifism". Hiistorically speaking, the concept of "peace through strength" has proven far more successful than being an easy victim.

The biden government just insulted the entire South East Asia in the recent US / Asean Summit
I am from Singapore.
It is now the main talking point.

You use to have the carrot / stick.
Now you only have the Stick.
And at the moment, you need to settle your backyard in Latin America first.

Gas is an empty threat until next winter. Russia is running an offensive invasion, not falling back inside their borders to grind down someone invading them the eastern front. To be turned back from Ukraine would mean a total disaster for Russia, the kind of humiliating defeat and withdrawal that would collapse their government, end Putin and set off a seismic shift like the Berlin Wall falling all over again. If Russia can come up with some creative option for retaliation, its something we haven't though of. When naval vessels are being sunk and missile launchers are positioned in Ukraine and hard to dislodge, the only kind of action Russia could take to dissuade their use is something brazen and shocking enough to make NATO back down. That's the thing. An impotent retaliation would humiliate them, a minor retaliation would just serve as a call to arms and casus belli for America. If they launch a cyber attack that shuts off power for a few hours in DC, it will be mocked on SNL next weekend. If they sink a US navy vessel, congressmen will be clamoring for war in all-out bloodlust. Russia has one option that would shake them.

I dunno, what else is there, take thousands of Ukrainians hostage? Carpet bomb Kiev? If we cared about Ukrainian lives we wouldn't be stoking this war in the first place