That's really useful thx

also, irish headline:

"Ukraine has ruled out a ceasefire or any territorial concessions to Russia, while Poland's president said any loss of Ukrainian territory would be a "huge blow" to the entire West as he warned against appeasing Russian President Vladimir Putin."

no surprises here.

Before;

After;

Ukrainians are really getting pummeled all across the Donbas front the last few days. Seeing a few Twitter accounts reporting that at least part of Lyman was taken, some pro-Russian accounts reporting 500 prisoners taken.

This is a video of tos-1 i think? being fired overnight in Lyman. They've used this weapon system before but not widely. The longer the war drags out, the more frustrated they get, the more likely we're to see these type of weapons imo.

https://twitter.com/PaulaPaalu/status/1528791764869472259

Zelensky trying to get more funding/equipment at Davos



This post was edited by ofthevoid on May 23 2022 02:37pm

Severodonetsk will probably fall in the next month or so. It's in America's interest for the war to go as long as possible and for as many Russians to die. As long as Ukrainians are willing to fight, the US and Europe should take advantage of it.

Russian losses now aren't as bad as they were when they were blitzkrieging. Instead of dropping in paratroopers and having stretched out supply lines that aren't defended they're pounding positions for days if not weeks, then sending infantry to do clean up work. I think the ratio was around 1:1 of troop losses in the beginning, maybe even slightly more losses on Russia's side because it's harder to take than defend but now it's no where near that. They have the artillery edge and it's not even close.

Most of Europe is praying this ends like yesterday. The eastern countries are now daily asking for more money from the reluctant south and west. Germany, France, Italy behind closed doors are trying to get Ukraine to give up some concessions so maybe the war ends and they can keep buying much needed Russian resources while most of those 6+ million refugees can go home instead of really stretching thin social safety nets.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on May 23 2022 04:24pm

The next potential escalations come as Ukraine and US warhawks want to attack Russia's black sea fleet blockading the ports, citing the grain that can't be shipped out. At the same time, US intelligence claims Russia is loading Ukrainian grain onto its bulk carrier ships. Right now only Odessa really has any Ukrainian control along the sea and is fully blockaded.

https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/05/23/ukraine-to-get-harpoon-anti-ship-missiles-from-denmark-amid-russian-black-sea-blockade/

We now have confirmation that NATO does plan to launch attacks on the Russian navy by proxy, shipping Harpoons to Ukraine via Denmark
This is the act that could back Russia into a corner where it has no choice but to attack NATO targets, whether directly or by proxy. They can't let their black sea fleet become sitting ducks for anti-ship missiles, and they can't withdraw the blockade on Odessa and keep up the war. Its driving right towards the kind of confrontation JFK warned about during the Cuban missile crisis: A confrontation which bring an adversary to a choice of either a humiliating retreat or a nuclear war.

If Ukraine starts launching NATO missiles from entrenched positions that can sink their fleet while NATO operations micromanage the launches, that's the point at which Putin can choose between a total retreat, attacking NATO targets like US navy vessels in a hope to convince us to back down in brinksmanship, or just dropping nukes on Ukraine and ending it decisively. And Putin is not going to retreat, and we know he's not going to retreat. So either we scuttle this initiative like we did with other supposed heavy weapons that we got cold feet about, or we reach the most dangerous phase of this war

This will end when Putin enters a sanatorium and does not come out the leader of Russia, do to worsening Parkinson's Disease. Early next year.

Watching Putin and his team of doctors is like watching Weekend at Bernies, or HRC campaign again.



Russia is no threat to NATO. We're just multiple generations of technology against them. We would be like the Spanish conquering the Aztecs with the army they've revealed.

This post was edited by Skinned on May 23 2022 04:43pm

Why not, why should their war effort require a blockade of Odessa? Sure, if they withdraw their fleet, any hopes of conquering Odessa are gone, but I don't see how that would doom the Russian efforts in Donbass and around Kherson.