Quote (Greet @ 20 Nov 2019 23:55)
I think the more important question is assuming the house does impeach and the Senate does not... will the hearings/inquiry help or hurt Trump in 2020.
Hurt. There is enough damning evidence for misconduct by Trump to hurt his standing with independents and moderates, even if it was perhaps not serious enough to justify removing an elected president from office.
And as 2018 has shown, if both sides have huge turnout, Trump's base alone isnt enough - he needs those independents and moderates to at the very least not break heavily for Democrats.
Another aspect is that the glaring dilettantism he has exhibited in the Ukraine/Burisma case might cause some Republicans donors to sour on him. They might decide that they would rather take a Dem winning in 2020 and getting another shot in 2024 with a more reliable and savvy conservative at the top of the ticket than another 4 years of Trump. So I could see at least some donors abandoning him and sitting the 2020 presidential race out (focusing their money on the senate races instead) if too much weakness/incompetence on this meta-level is exposed.