If the vaccines were stopping the spread among the the vaccinated, a state with 82%+ who got a dose wouldn't be leading the charts over states like Idaho and Mississippi which are noticeably not in spikes of infections right now, just barely starting to uptick. And Minnesota became a hot spot at the same time as North Dakota, starting in July, long before seasonality would account for it. Michael Osterholm has been refreshingly blunt in his analysis, he admits they simply cannot explain the spreads. They defy correlation with factors like seasonality and vaccination rates and mask mandate adherence and numbers of large gatherings. Instead, they appear to be geographically grouped and spreading outwards from the hotspots.
The absence of correlation between the application of preventative restrictions, and outcomes, should be enough to doubt or deny those measures are working at all. The current outbreaks just can't be explained by the conventional factors like 'who is indoors' or supposed mitigation like mask mandates. NYC had the strictest covid measures in the country and they're getting buttblasted while lax red states aren't. But it makes a lot of sense if you theorize that the covid waves are spread geographically starting with centers of international travel before they spread to the heartland in delayed waves outwards.


The absence of evidence here is evidence of absence. We're 2 years in and Covid just isn't following the theoretical trends people like Fauci said it would. I think there's enough evidence to say those theories are wrong
Also, all the evidence of mild outcomes during huge spikes in reported cases, point to it being an omicron breakthrough fueled outbreak that is spreading among the vaccinated. It doesn't make sense to say its all among that <20% unvaxxed population, not when hospitalizations are down 97% from last years peak but infections are up to nearly 200% of last year's peak.

This post was edited by Goomshill on Dec 21 2021 05:25pm

New York will always be the first to get spikes because its the premier hub of international travel

This post was edited by NetflixAdaptationWidow on Dec 21 2021 05:23pm

Well, it's basically epidemiology 101 that epidemics have a strong spatio-temporal component. You also gotta keep in mind factors like vaccine waning, higher levels of natural immunity in red states and differences in contact density. I wouldn't take the fact Idado is not surging while coastal states do as proof that covid measures don't work.

Also, we have to look at where exactly infections are happening within a state. It makes a big difference for our conclusions whether Minnesota became a hotspot in July based on a surge in rural, red-leaning parts of the state or because of a surge in the Twin Cities.


Either way, I still don't think you have provided a cogent argument for your hypothesis that surging cases in blue states are proof that the vaccinated are these "hidden superspreaders" that fly under the radar.





Dito for London when it comes to Europe.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Dec 21 2021 05:35pm

I agree that especially in NYC, the spread is presumably amongst vaccinated individuals who were congregating since we know that Omicron, making up more than 70% of new cases, evades vaccine protection.

I think the point is that unless unvaccinated folks are locking themselves down (we all know they won’t even if their lives depended on it), they will be catching omicron sooner or later. The most imperative harm-reduction measures we can do at this moment is to prevent too many of them from getting sick all at once since they have a higher risk of developing severe illness than the vaccinated, which is what will lead to hospital overflow and crises. Since mask mandates and indoor / outdoor policies obviously aren’t working to stem the spread, that leaves vaccinations as the best barrier of protection at this moment in time as it’s been shown to reduce incident of severe illness.

This post was edited by AvanineCommuter on Dec 21 2021 05:44pm

Based on the hospitalization numbers we're seeing right now, this omicron wave among the vaccinated doesn't need to flatten that curve at all, it doesn't matter if everyone catches it all at once because its inconsequential among the vaccinated

Getting 3rd jab tomorrow, there's alot of jabs per day here, more than 1% of the total population getting 1 shot yesterday, and it's increasing.
Main point is that vaccines can now be stored at highter temperatures so pharmacies and others small medical entities can do it alot easier.

My vaccinated daughter has Covid for the second time right now since returning back to school in-person.



I'm the only one in my house with a booster. My daughter has full blown covid, my wife says she feels like shit, and I just have the usual seasonal depression. I wish I could get covid so I could just stay in bed and not go to work. I'm so fucking sucked dry. I don't even get a day off for Christmas or New Years because of staffing, it fucking sucks.

This post was edited by Skinned on Dec 21 2021 05:51pm

Cmon christmas is close you will have a good week-end.
/e don't tell me you work sunday...

This post was edited by Saucisson6000 on Dec 21 2021 05:55pm

I hope you are correct, but hospitalizations / deaths lag new case counts by a full week or more, so we’ll only know for certain once it comes to pass.

If we look at South Africa / UK / Denmark as precedent, I’m remaining optimistic that Omicron may be the variant that ends covid-19 for good and turns it endemic. But while we’re still here, we still have to brace for the worse since nothing is for certain until it is shown in data.

This post was edited by AvanineCommuter on Dec 21 2021 06:01pm