Russia had to change strategy multiple times, they are using anti-ship missiles to attack land targets which strongly hints at them running out of guided missiles, they have been unsuccessfully trying to build up momentum on the Donbass front for a whole month now, modern weapons keep streaming into Ukraine every day while Russia will have a much harder time replacing any lost material, Sweden and Finland will join NATO, which is stronger and more united than before, the shift of the European economies away from Russian oil and gas has been massively accelerated by the war, Russia's reputation in both the diplomatic and the military sphere are in shambles, their central bank has to burn through its foreign currency stockpile, their economy will take a huge hit from all the sanctions once they can't paper over it anymore.

What does Russia have on the plus side? They made some smallish gains in the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, they now control the ruin formerly known as Mariupol and they captured a land connection from the Donbass to Crimea - although it remains to be seen whether they can hold the region around Kherson.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on May 17 2022 12:57pm

It's like you attempted to take a house with ten apartments and managed to hold only two but with a sea view.

This post was edited by Norlander on May 17 2022 01:05pm

As I told you I scrolled to march 2020 and there was no such tweet.
Now for some unknown reason i cannot scroll past 25february, nothing loads past that date.
So I cannot verify 1488 shirt.

Soldiers fight, but nobody fights 24/7.

The minimum metric I would use for Russian Victory would be as follows:

1. Ukraine casts away its will to Join Nato
2. Ukraine cedes land / certain areas of Eastern Ukraine are declared independant, pro-russian

However:

While I understood that Ukraine may have considered point 1, I dont believe they ever intended on 2. Also, I expect now Ukraine is going to be able to remove all of Russia's forces from Ukraine (provided Russia only uses conventional means), i.e. that Ukraine "beats" the Russians out of Ukraine. Therefore at the negotiation table, it is now looking more and more likely that 1, and certainly 2, are unrealistic, for Russia.

From BBC:

Talks between Russia and Ukraine to end the war are on hold, both sides confirm. Russia says Ukraine has "practically withdrawn" from the negotiations, while Kyiv blames Moscow for failing to compromise.

--------------------------

What I would say here is, Ukraine NOW has NO NEED to go to the negotiation table as they now see a route to victory, therefore they do not need to negotiate with Russia. Previously my view was the Russians had NO NEED to go to the negotiation table as they wanted to be in an overwhelming position from which to make demands. time and events have overtaken the russians. therefore on this basis i see Russia "losing".

--------------------------

slighly off topic: Finally from what I read about the matter and on review of the Russia / Ukraine war, I never envisage a scenario of Russia going anywhere near Finland because Finland has a decent army. as already mentioned russia will make noise and point missiles and a drop in diplomatic relations is about what i expect.

This post was edited by ferdia on May 17 2022 01:33pm

First of all, you cant really officially buy EUR/USD with Roubles.
So there is no free market, only Russian declaration.
Imagine you are foreigner coming with 1000usd to Russia.
For Russia gov its better to give you less roubles for your USD.
Secondly many companies stopped selling their goods to Russia, but countries continue buying resources, at least partially, until they fully switch somewhere else.
It kind of gives Russian inflow of currency, while they have not many options to spend it.

Well, holding only two apartments after paying the price for the full ten is still a loss if you ask me, even with a sea view.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on May 17 2022 01:41pm

BBC: Russia's mainstream media outlets offer a view of the Ukraine war that is unlike anything seen from outside of the country. For a start, they don't even call it a war. But our Russia editor reflects on a rare exchange broadcast on state TV. It was an extraordinary piece of television. The programme was 60 Minutes, the flagship twice-daily talk show on Russian state TV: studio discussion that promotes the Kremlin line on absolutely everything, including on President Putin's so-called "special military operation" in Ukraine. The Kremlin still maintains that the Russian offensive is going according to plan. But on Monday night, studio guest Mikhail Khodarenok, a military analyst and retired colonel, painted a very different picture.

He warned that "the situation [for Russia] will clearly get worse" as Ukraine receives additional military assistance from the West and that "the Ukrainian army can arm a million people". Referring to Ukrainian soldiers, he noted: "The desire to defend their motherland very much exists. Ultimate victory on the battlefield is determined by the high morale of troops who are spilling blood for the ideas they are ready to fight for. "The biggest problem with [Russia's] military and political situation," he continued, "is that we are in total political isolation and the whole world is against us, even if we don't want to admit it. We need to resolve this situation. "The situation cannot be considered normal when against us, there is a coalition of 42 countries and when our resources, military-political and military-technical, are limited."

The other guests in the studio were silent. Even the host, Olga Skabeyeva, normally fierce and vocal in her defence of the Kremlin, appeared oddly subdued. In many ways, it's a case of "I told you so" from Mr Khodarenok. Writing in Russia's Independent Military Review back in February, before Moscow attacked Ukraine, the defence analyst had criticised "enthusiastic hawks and hasty cuckoos" for claiming that Russia would easily win a war against Ukraine. His conclusion back then: "An armed conflict with Ukraine is not in Russia's national interests."

...(snipped out the rest).

The Russian mil couldn't organise a piss up at a brewery, even pro-Kremlin telegram channels are now getting increasingly pissed off with the war. Who wouldn't, when total takeover and regime change failed, then taking over Eastern Ukraine failed, and now taking the rest of the Donbas is excruciatingly slow

To be fair to Russia, they appear to be successfully offsetting the foreign currency issue via imports. Imports have cratered, so money in is staying in.

This post was edited by bogie160 on May 17 2022 03:37pm

An adept form of kicking the can down the round. That's a bold strategy Cotton, let's see how it pays off for em

I was listening to a Russian mil expert on a podcast called War on the Rocks that said their economic short-termism will become unmanageable by August

This post was edited by dro94 on May 17 2022 03:56pm