Quote (Black XistenZ @ May 12 2022 05:24am)
That's the million dollar question, isn't it: would the alternative be better for the national interests of the US?
If the US and the EU hadn't armed Ukraine and just dropped them right when the fighting begun, no intelligence and recon support and so on, then Russia would have won rather easily. Hence, dropping Ukraine would embolden Russia, embolden China with regard to Taiwan and the South China Sea, tarnish the US reputation as a dependable ally, take away Ukraine as a customer market and workbench for the European economy, give Putin more leverage over the food supplies for large swaths of Africa and the Middle East and create a "successful" blueprint for Russia to tackle the Baltics next via bogus claims of an oppressed Russian minority that needs to be "liberated".
If we had allowed Putin to take Ukraine without much fight, would he have proverbially gone home and enjoyed his victory, or would he have interpreted this as a confirmation for his preconception that the West is weak, decadent and lacks resolve? Putin's statements throughout the years are completely unambiguous, he literally said that he wants to recapture - at a minimum - all of the territory of the former Soviet Union. Imho, it's pretty clear that a Russian "success" in Ukraine would not have led to lasting peace, it would have prompted Putin to test the Western commitment to the Baltics next. Imho, it makes far more sense to stop Russia's neo-imperialist desires right here right now, where Article V is not directly concerned like it would be in the Baltics. If you ask me, handing the Russians a bloody nose in Ukraine, exposing their military as the paper tiger that it is and stunting Russia's ability to replenish the equipment losses will do far more to create lasting peace than rolling over and giving the aggressor what he wants.
What does it really mean to 'embolden' Russia in this context?
Take the hypothetical. A bully keeps backing a kid into a corner in a playground. He pushes up against him, keeps intimidating him, gets him into a spot with no retreat. Eventually he's got nothing to do but hold his ground, he can't fall back any further. When that kid swings a punch back, the bully says that he can't let it stand because otherwise he'd be emboldened to keep pushing back. We spent 30 years expanding NATO across eastern europe and building a military alliance against the shia allies of Russia in the mideast. We took the Czechs, Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Albania, Croatia. Finally we overthrew the government in Ukraine and seized Russia's last buffer state.
That justification of curbing Russia's neo-imperialist desires is premised on our own neo-imperialist desires. Any attempt by Russia to restore the status quo before our hostile intervention is framed as irredentism. And worse yet, its done with an impotent approach. I said early on with this conflict we could either invest the direct NATO military confrontation needed to hold Ukraine and oppose Russia, or we could appease them, but we couldn't do both with some bastardized passive-aggressive approach. Which is exactly what Biden did. In the lead-up to the war he stood down and said we wouldn't stop Russia. Now we're prodding on the conflict just to make it as bitter and bloody as possible, with most of the casualties going to be Ukrainians. And for what? Giving the Russians a bloody nose? To what end? We're
not stopping them.
This is the worst of all outcomes. We could have aligned peacefully with Russia to oppose China, seeking to resolve Ukraine diplomatically and thawing our relations. We could have stopped Russia cold and led a NATO intervention to fortify Ukraine and hold Russia at its border. We could have let Russia seize Ukraine and still maintained our hostilities but minimized the humanitarian costs and not be wasting millions of dollars of treasure, and some blood, trying to fight them in a half-assed manner. Instead Russia is emboldened, China is emboldened by the example, Biden is weak, our economy is hurting worse than Russia's, our allies are put in a geopolitical vice grip while the unaligned nations are aligning against us. The only way this thread leads to lasting peace is a peace achieved where America crumbles and our enemies are victorious.
This post was edited by Goomshill on May 12 2022 04:48am