Quote (ferdia @ 9 May 2022 11:07)

this makes no sense to me. Western China is empty. they have all that space to build build build. i dont believe from a historical standpoint, cultural standpoint or interests standpoint that doing anything to russia, i.e. troops on the ground ever, is in their playbook. while western narrative is that china is overpopulated and yes they have alot of chinese ok! the technology of today and the space in china is such that even if the land is not great for building, its simply so vast that they can do w/e they want if they have the money (note: they have the money). They have more lebensraum as you might put it, as compared to other countries.

https://i.imgur.com/Od88EYk.jpg.

Quote (JohnnyMcCoy @ 9 May 2022 13:04)

western china is pretty desolate, that green area is mostly wasteland, desert and very high altitude

you dont really want to have big settlements there

Quote (Hamsterbaby @ 9 May 2022 12:36)

I don't think China can turn Russia into her bitch per say, China depends a lot on Russia's energy.

Quote

Even that being said , it is pretty much known that China's military capabilities cannot surpass the US or even Russia as she is at least 30 years behind.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ May 9 2022 02:07pm)

China has a lot of money and a diversified economy. By contrast, Russia has very little besides its commodity sales.

Quote (ofthevoid @ 9 May 2022 14:58)

I'm starting to believe that outside the Donbas, Russian expansion may be over, they're really not pushing in the south and are just happy having taken Kherson. At this point there's enough evidence to suggest that both Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be broken off from Ukraine. In the north around Kharkiv the Russians are slowly giving up towns, IMO to me this front was always just a distraction so as to spread Ukrainian forces having to defend multiple fronts.

Pretty much the bulk of the war is raging in the Donbas region. The west for weeks has been broadcasting another mass Russia offensive which hasn't come yet. I think the reason it's not coming is it'll be extremely costly lives and equipment wise so Russia is content with smaller scale offensive operations while having their artillery grind Ukrainian defensive positions slowly. That was the mistake of their 1st phase, underestimating Ukrainian will and preparedness to fight, this time they are not making that mistake, so they turned from a blitzkrieg to a siege type war. People also have to understand that the Donbas region has been heavily fortified and prepared for war for like 5 years, so there's no easy and fast way to dislodge the Ukrainian army here.

If you look at the current map they are slowly poking holes from various directions in Ukrainian lines. By doing that it creates potential flanks for Ukrainian defenses, so then the Ukrainians have to be very careful as they can get encircled and cut off. I've heard of tactical retreats from the Sievierodonestk and Lysychansk to prevent this encirclement but so far that's just unconfirmed rumors on twitter.
Ultimately I think the goal for Russia is to basically seize everything from Yzium down, basically the rest of Donestk oblast. Once that happens forward territorial operations will probably stop.

https://liveuamap.com/

Quote (Black XistenZ @ May 9 2022 09:13am)

I agree with most of what you say, except for two minor details:

1. Zaporizhzhia is not controlled, or even attacked, by Russian troops. And since it's a massive city with tons of heavy industry and a great strategic importance, there's no way the Ukrainians give it up without a huge fight. Therefore, I really doubt that Russia is gonna capture it.
2. For the past week or so, Russian missile attacks on Odessa have ramped up. I'm sure that the Russians would love to take it due to its utmost strategic and economic importance, but I'm really unsure whether they'll really push for it since Odessa is also heavily fortified and has been prepared for an amphibious invasion scenario for years.

Quote (ferdia @ 9 May 2022 15:10)

this to my mind is the most salient point to my mind.i.e. China is growing economically. Russia is not and will not. Russia has very little to offer the world (other then its natural resources).

Quote (ofthevoid @ 9 May 2022 15:22)

2. Odessa as you say is extremely fortified by this point. Their waters are also mined and I think both Ukraine and NATO know that it's an absolutely crucial area to defend. An amphibious landing would be too costly IMO and Russian supply lines would difficult to maintain for a long assault on a large city. I think if Russia wanted to go for Odessa, they'd probably be pushing Mykolaiv. That's really IMO the best way to take Odessa, take Mykolaiv and then cut off Odessa from Ukrainian troops/supplies from the north.

Quote (ferdia @ May 9 2022 03:45pm)

That video might be removed djunior so well here is a brief ~ Putin's Speech Key Take Away:

"An absolutely unacceptable threat was created for us, and moreover, just next to our borders...bla bla bla neo-nazi's...I repeat, we saw how the military infrastructure was being developed, how hundreds of foreign advisers began to work, there were regular deliveries of the most modern weapons from Nato countries. The danger grew every day. Russia has preemptively repulsed an aggression. it was a forced, timely, and the only correct decision."

OK so basically nothing about long term plans. he spoke about WW2, and addressed those soldiers currently fighting. His rhetoric implied this was a do-or-die moment for them, they were not going to suddenly stop. so yea months more to go.

does anyone else have another view of the speech? the narrative being provided is that ukraine was building up an army for years (true) and that ukraine would invade russia (im not qualified to explore that). ultimately this war was a long time coming but it appears to have been inevitable for a long time. I guess more knowledgeable people will look over that with a fine tooth comb and write books about it, for me to read, in a few years time.

Quote (Djunior @ 9 May 2022 16:08)

Removing it? It's relevant ;)

All of those that are screaming Russia bad are wrong, the truth (history, cannot be denied) is that NATO has basically taken all former Warsaw Pact countries despite "security promises". Putin clearly states in that vid I posted that Russia always wanted security for both sides. And here it comes:

If NATO (the West) had been smart enough to respect security for both sides instead of expanding East and installing missile shields etc etc then this war wouldn't have happened.