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May 8 2022 06:14am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ 8 May 2022 09:46)
No way imho. The entire Russian leadership consists of hawkish nationalists who hate the West. For example, Nikolai Patrushev, the guy who might hold power for a couple of days while Putin rehabs from surgery in the coming days, is a former FSB director and Putin's chief foreign policy advisor. He's described as a hardliner, as brutal, cunning and ruthless. Basically a worse version of Putin.

There imho won't be a noteworthy change in Russian policy until the situation becomes so bad for Russia that the country's entire current inner circle of power can be kicked out.


I know, this is why i'm asking the russian guy who is living near ukraine, to get some hope...
At least this guy is 70.
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May 8 2022 07:08am
Quote (Hamsterbaby @ 8 May 2022 05:25)
" The relationship between USA and EU is like that of Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky"


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May 8 2022 07:56am
Gopnik invasion not going well. Putin thinks killing Ukrainians will cure his cancer. Its rotted his brain.

This post was edited by Skinned on May 8 2022 07:56am
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May 8 2022 09:15am
Quote (Saucisson6000 @ 8 May 2022 14:14)
I know, this is why i'm asking the russian guy who is living near ukraine, to get some hope...
At least this guy is 70.


... so is Putin?! And with the rumors about Putin's ill health, the other guy (Patrushev) might well outlast him, despite being a year older. My broader point is that Russia's current behavior is not just a "Putin problem", it's a problem with the entirety of Russia's current ruling class.
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May 8 2022 12:59pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ 8 May 2022 15:15)
... so is Putin?! And with the rumors about Putin's ill health, the other guy (Patrushev) might well outlast him, despite being a year older. My broader point is that Russia's current behavior is not just a "Putin problem", it's a problem with the entirety of Russia's current ruling class.


It's a whole old generation in ex-KGB, and probably a part of the army. But not the whole structure, the collapse in 1991 was so sloppy, people were in the street doing nothing.
I think the very core is like that, but certainly not the whole ruling class like you say, the system is also about on money, and west = money.
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May 8 2022 01:05pm
Quote (Saucisson6000 @ 8 May 2022 20:59)
It's a whole old generation in ex-KGB, and probably a part of the army. But not the whole structure, the collapse in 1991 was so sloppy, people were in the street doing nothing.
I think the very core is like that, but certainly not the whole ruling class like you say, the system is also about on money, and west = money.


Yeah, you're right, that's a good point: I doubt that Russia's economic leaders and oligarchs are particularly keen on military adventures which interfere with their business and their luxurious lifestyle. I don't think they are ideologically committed to Russian neo-imperialism like the generals and FSB figures. It's just that the latter group is in charge and the oligarchs have to go along with it if they don't want to end up in a gulag like Khodorkovsky.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on May 8 2022 01:33pm
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May 8 2022 01:09pm
Quote (Saucisson6000 @ May 8 2022 01:49am)
If putin is ousted, is there any chance he get replaced by someone who want to open the door to the west ?


if Putin is ousted its possible we might get worse. Russia seems to have an inferiority complex which will be compounded by this war. Inferiorty complex might be the wrong expression, say rather a "the world is out to get us" attitude, which, in fact, it is.

Quote (Norlander @ May 8 2022 01:56am)
Alexei Navalny, unless he's a paid Pied Piper


pretty sure he will never get our of jail and is more likely to rot away forever. while we might all want him to be the next leader, its a pipe dream.


also sorry for the afk and delay in review and response, i was busy! hope everyone had a nice weekendXD

Quote (Hamsterbaby @ May 8 2022 02:46am)
They will somehow want Russia to give up their conventional nukes which I don't think they will.
And furthermore there is a deep distrust between Russia and the West after so many years, I would think you would have understood it by now.


what ? where is this coming from ? Russia would only give up nukes if it was invaded in a world war. and they would sooner nuke the planet then surrender. they have invaded ukraine. if they leave ukraine it will not suddenly become russia suing for peace. forget about this idea of Russia giving up its nukes. unless i read you wrong ?

Quote (Hamsterbaby @ May 8 2022 03:15am)
I do not think the old guard would agree to it, and also the sudden collapse of Soviet Union was a terrible experience for the people of Russia.
Not only did they lose their "pride" Russia was basically a cowboy town in the 90s.

But first things first if I may in my own words, you need to separate these Entities or at least try to understand it.
Nato, USA, EURO and the West.

If USA is out of the picture, I think Russia will reconsider in all situations and work with EU.
That is my two cents worth.


for the bolded i would say it differently, the EU would reconisder in all situations and work with russia. ultimately russia has alot of issues, not just putin. there are enough books out there to read why russia is close but not too close to the EU from a cultural standpoint. yes at a government level they will sometimes have equal interests, but russia is massive and it takes a little team (read : years) for things to thaw and improve. not for the next little while i guess (10+)

This post was edited by ferdia on May 8 2022 01:14pm
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May 8 2022 01:17pm
Quote (theCrossbones @ May 8 2022 04:44am)


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May 8 2022 01:42pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ 8 May 2022 19:05)
Yeah, you're right, that's a good point: I doubt that Russia's economic leaders and oligarchs are particularly keen on military adventures which interfere with their business and their luxurious lifestyle. I don't think they are ideologically committed to Russian neo-imperialism like the generals and FSB figures. It's just that the latter group is in charge and the oligarchs have to go along if they don't want to end up in a gulag like Khodorkovsky.


Let's say being 30-50 in 1991 so it's 61-81+ old in 2022, many of these USSR lovers are aged already.

Quote (ferdia @ 8 May 2022 19:09)
if Putin is ousted its possible we might get worse. Russia seems to have an inferiority complex which will be compounded by this war. Inferiorty complex might be the wrong expression, say rather a "the world is out to get us" attitude, which, in fact, it is.


Yes, it's the common theory, especially for immediate replacement in actual conditions. It's also not sure. Maybe we could see a collapse, there's alot of guys like this waiting; https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Nemtsov

This post was edited by Saucisson6000 on May 8 2022 01:56pm
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May 8 2022 01:52pm
Quote (ferdia @ 8 May 2022 22:09)
if Putin is ousted its possible we might get worse. Russia seems to have an inferiority complex which will be compounded by this war. Inferiorty complex might be the wrong expression, say rather a "the world is out to get us" attitude, which, in fact, it is.



pretty sure he will never get our of jail and is more likely to rot away forever. while we might all want him to be the next leader, its a pipe dream.


also sorry for the afk and delay in review and response, i was busy! hope everyone had a nice weekendXD



what ? where is this coming from ? Russia would only give up nukes if it was invaded in a world war. and they would sooner nuke the planet then surrender. they have invaded ukraine. if they leave ukraine it will not suddenly become russia suing for peace. forget about this idea of Russia giving up its nukes. unless i read you wrong ?



for the bolded i would say it differently, the EU would reconisder in all situations and work with russia. ultimately russia has alot of issues, not just putin. there are enough books out there to read why russia is close but not too close to the EU from a cultural standpoint. yes at a government level they will sometimes have equal interests, but russia is massive and it takes a little team (read : years) for things to thaw and improve. not for the next little while i guess (10+)

Navalny about Crimea

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/17/world/europe/navalnys-comments-on-crimea-ignite-russian-twittersphere.html
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