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May 5 2022 05:34am
Quote (ferdia @ 5 May 2022 13:07)
We have argued repeatedly that this conflicts origins predate Feb 2022 by a bit more then that (i.e. years in the making, as the Ukrainians have already admitted). The latest date thats safest to use is either 2019, or 2014 (while accepting that before 2014 yes it had puppet government). Yes Putin drove the final wedge, but he did not drive all the wedges.


Sure, the West is not completely without fault. The NATO's eastward expansion could have been slower, was that missile shield really necessary, etc. The bulk of the fault still lies with Russia though.



More broadly, I disagree with this notion that the United States had a geostrategic interest in driving a wedge between Russia and Western Europe. Russia supplying the global markets with cheap gas and oil was in America's best interest. And since Russia was ruled by a cleptocracy, with no real interest in sharing wealth with the common people or investing into a diversified, modern economy outside of the energy sector, Russia was also never gonna become an noteworthy economic rival.

By 2014, when things started really escalating in Ukraine, the US had already seen their net oil imports decline for several years and the fracking boom was taking off [1]; they would go on to become energy independent by late 2019. Hence, the US had no reason to cast an eye at Russian oil supplies anymore either. Which reason would they have had to try to drive a wedge between Europe and Russia at that time? Heck, Obama is even on the record saying that he no longer considered Russia a viable military rival ("regional power") and that he wanted to pivot the US military and geostrategic focus toward China.


[1]
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mttntus2&f=m
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May 5 2022 05:38am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ May 5 2022 12:34pm)
Sure, the West is not completely without fault. The NATO's eastward expansion could have been slower, was that missile shield really necessary, etc. The bulk of the fault still lies with Russia though.

More broadly, I disagree with this notion that the United States had a geostrategic interest in driving a wedge between Russia and Western Europe. Russia supplying the global markets with cheap gas and oil was in America's best interest. And since Russia was ruled by a cleptocracy, with no real interest in sharing wealth with the common people or investing into a diversified, modern economy outside of the energy sector, Russia was also never gonna become an noteworthy economic rival.

By 2014, when things started really escalating in Ukraine, the US had already seen their net oil imports decline for several years and the fracking boom was taking off [1]; they would go on to become energy independent by late 2019. Hence, the US had no reason to cast an eye at Russian oil supplies anymore either. Which reason would they have had to try to drive a wedge between Europe and Russia at that time? Heck, Obama is even on the record saying that he no longer considered Russia a viable military rival ("regional power") and that he wanted to pivot the US military and geostrategic focus toward China.


[1]
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mttntus2&f=m


I have not agreed (or disagreed) on "this notion that the United States had a geostrategic interest in driving a wedge between Russia and Western Europe". I am still on the fence looking at other stuff.
Also I am not knowledgeable about all the energy conversations which is also why I have been very sparse in my comments relating to it. just stating this so my position is known!
I would tend to agree with those comments ascribed to Obama, I would call those comments astute.

This post was edited by ferdia on May 5 2022 05:41am
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May 5 2022 06:25am
Quote (ferdia @ 5 May 2022 13:38)
I have not agreed (or disagreed) on "this notion that the United States had a geostrategic interest in driving a wedge between Russia and Western Europe". I am still on the fence looking at other stuff.
Also I am not knowledgeable about all the energy conversations which is also why I have been very sparse in my comments relating to it. just stating this so my position is known!
I would tend to agree with those comments ascribed to Obama, I would call those comments astute.


Oh, I didn't take offense by your post, sorry if that's how it came across. I was mostly taking your post as starter to lay out my thoughts on this "the US is driving a wedge between Europe and Russia"-argument. This argument was plausible during the Cold War era, when there was a conflict between competing system/ideologies and the Soviet Union was a viable military threat. But like I explained, I don't consider it to have merit anymore in the post-Cold War era; it's mostly brought up as a deflection by Putin apologists. In fact, it is the Russian side which is constantly trying to drive a wedge between Western and Eastern Europe as well as Europe and the US.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on May 5 2022 06:26am
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May 5 2022 06:33am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ May 5 2022 01:25pm)
Oh, I didn't take offense by your post, sorry if that's how it came across. I was mostly taking your post as starter to lay out my thoughts on this "the US is driving a wedge between Europe and Russia"-argument. This argument was plausible during the Cold War era, when there was a conflict between competing system/ideologies and the Soviet Union was a viable military threat. But like I explained, I don't consider it to have merit anymore in the post-Cold War era; it's mostly brought up as a deflection by Putin apologists. In fact, it is the Russian side which is constantly trying to drive a wedge between Western and Eastern Europe as well as Europe and the US.


I dont take offense and I meant no offense in my response! relating to your above! :hug: in the round any wedge perceived or true, on all sides, to my mind ( but not yet a fully formed opinion), is (or may be) a by product of other policy not specifically designed to create such wedge. if that makes sense ? i always try to be careful when commenting!

finally, there are some words that are sometimes not fully understood by people (me included!). as an example: apologist. as an exercise I googled the current definition: Apologist: a person who offers an argument in defence of something controversial. On that basis I think everyone on the planet, should be an apologist, else their lives are very dull!

Thus when referring to war apologist or abortion apologist etc my view would be that both sides can always (and should always) be debated, but that the english language word apologist is misconstrued or misunderstood to mean that the person opining apologies for any or all of the events which are the subject of the debate (and on the opposing side).

another word i dont like is "defence" i prefer "reason".

Finally, i looked at that link you provided, can you expand on its content for knowledge purposes. at a glance it suggests that the US is doing a hard brake on petroleum imports while noting this does not fit the narrative that i have seen at times in this topic. I found this as well when i was curious: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MUONT_NUS-NRS_2&f=A still scratching my head over all this energy talk (not my area of expertise).

This post was edited by ferdia on May 5 2022 06:47am
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May 5 2022 06:52am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ May 5 2022 12:51pm)
LMAO! Yes, America has also invaded and mistreated some foreign countries. This does not contradict or undo the Russian aggression though.


Also, the US have generally treated Europe far better than Russia. When East Germany, Hungary and Czechia wanted to go their own way, Russian tanks came waltzing in to bring them back under the Russian yoke. When Ukraine wanted to join a free trade zone with Europe, the Russia-aligned president vetoed it, then tried to quell pro-EU protests with force, and when that failed, Russia captured Crimea and the Donbass.

Meanwhile, the US have accepted Europe going their own way on many occasions. When they wanted to go to war in Iraq, France, Germany and a few smaller European nations outright refused allegiance. Did the US send carrier groups to bomb Paris and Berlin into submission, similar to what the Russians did in Budapest and Prague? No. In recent years, Europe signed trade deals with Japan, Canada and Mexico, but refused to sign a new trade deal with America. Did the US government make a fuss about it? No.



dafuk are you talking about? US treats us like shit... were forced to follow your brainfucked gendershit, were made addicted to monsato genfoodshit, you morons want us to start destroy our GG ground wirh fracking, and so on and so on

russia on the other side never forced any of us to follow stupid capitalistic and brainwashed shit, no the selling us gas and oil for GG price all the time!

do you even know what BUSHs did? or your peacenobelprice motherfucker obama who killed thousands of kids by „accident“?
what about guantanamo bay? who morons PROMISED to close it and what? you never did.
you fuckin destroyed alot countrys and cultures and blaiming russia for defending itself?

lets talk about sbout georgien, not georgia, i mean the country south of russia. when you americans stationed thousands of troops and shit there and „forced them wanting to join NATO“.
its the same shit.

you americans want countrys to join nato just to have the right to send your troops there. its an organzized terror organisation.

should i go on or will you still try to tell me that USA are the good guys?

you guys are pretty hard brainwashed.

and no i wont link some funny pictures if your „culture“ from nowadays lol.

fremdschämen tu ich mich.
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May 5 2022 06:56am
Quote (Bananii @ May 5 2022 08:52am)
dafuk are you talking about? US treats us like shit... were forced to follow your brainfucked gendershit, were made addicted to monsato genfoodshit, you morons want us to start destroy our GG ground wirh fracking, and so on and so on

russia on the other side never forced any of us to follow stupid capitalistic and brainwashed shit, no the selling us gas and oil for GG price all the time!

do you even know what BUSHs did? or your peacenobelprice motherfucker obama who killed thousands of kids by „accident“?
what about guantanamo bay? who morons PROMISED to close it and what? you never did.
you fuckin destroyed alot countrys and culturesand blaiming russia for defending itself?

lets talk about sbout georgien, not georgia, i mean the country south of russia. when you americans stationed thousands of troops and shit there and „forced them wanting to join NATO“.
its the same shit.

you americans want countrys to join nato just to have the right to send your troops there. its an organzized terror organisation.

should i go on or will you still try to tell me that USA are the good guys?

you guys are pretty hard brainwashed.

and no i wont link some funny pictures if your „culture“ from nowadays lol.

fremdschämen tu ich mich.


Russia is defending itself by invading a sovereign nation, razing it's cities and raping, murdering and deporting civilians?

And it's everyone else who is brainwashed?

This post was edited by duffman316 on May 5 2022 06:56am
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May 5 2022 06:58am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ May 5 2022 11:51am)
LMAO! Yes, America has also invaded and mistreated some foreign countries. This does not contradict or undo the Russian aggression though.


Also, the US have generally treated Europe far better than Russia. When East Germany, Hungary and Czechia wanted to go their own way, Russian tanks came waltzing in to bring them back under the Russian yoke. When Ukraine wanted to join a free trade zone with Europe, the Russia-aligned president vetoed it, then tried to quell pro-EU protests with force, and when that failed, Russia captured Crimea and the Donbass.

Meanwhile, the US have accepted Europe going their own way on many occasions. When they wanted to go to war in Iraq, France, Germany and a few smaller European nations outright refused allegiance. Did the US send carrier groups to bomb Paris and Berlin into submission, similar to what the Russians did in Budapest and Prague? No. In recent years, Europe signed trade deals with Japan, Canada and Mexico, but refused to sign a new trade deal with America. Did the US government make a fuss about it? No.


I also agree with this.

your position could be more eloquently put, your wording detracts a bit from your sentiment but I do acknowledge your points.

Quote (duffman316 @ May 5 2022 01:56pm)
Russia is defending itself by invading a sovereign nation, razing it's cities and raping, murdering and deporting civilians?
And it's everyone else who is brainwashed?


its not that people are brain washed but rather that there is in western society a single narrative and not a proper debate on the issues or even an attempt at a reasonable resolution / settlement.

Also I dont know who said it but, to be clear when Ukraine commits warcrimes and people say "yes but russia started it and does more war crimes" its quite dangerous. you dont get down on your belly when a snake comes into your house, you do not resort to the same tactics and long term a taste for inhuman acts takes decades to get out of the system and causes long term issues. Yes in war difficult choices have to be made but my understanding is that indiscriminate war crimes for no other reason then self gratification / rage / revenge is a slippery slope from which its hard to climb out of.

This post was edited by ferdia on May 5 2022 07:04am
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May 5 2022 07:08am
Quote (ferdia @ May 5 2022 08:58am)
I also agree with this.

^Bananii your position could be more eloquently put, your wording detracts a bit from your sentiment but I do acknowledge your points.



its not that people are brain washed but rather that there is in western society a single narrative and not a proper debate on the issues or even an attempt at a reasonable resolution / settlement.


I'd think the liberals are very open about acknowledging americas faults on the global stage. Plenty of warcrimes have been commited by america over the decades and I don't deny this. I do see them as the lesser evil though compared to russia and china.
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May 5 2022 07:16am
Quote (ferdia @ May 5 2022 08:58am)
Also I dont know who said it but, to be clear when Ukraine commits warcrimes and people say "yes but russia started it and does more war crimes" its quite dangerous. you dont get down on your belly when a snake comes into your house, you do not resort to the same tactics and long term a taste for inhuman acts takes decades to get out of the system and causes long term issues. Yes in war difficult choices have to be made but my understanding is that indiscriminate war crimes for no other reason then self gratification / rage / revenge is a slippery slope from which its hard to climb out of.


While it would be nice if ukrainians took the high road in their treatment of russian savages i do not blame them. This is isn't a video game or movie, it's real life. Playing nice while the enemy is working to inflict as much misery on your populace as they can is not a smart idea.

Hypothetically speaking what would you do with a russian soldier who raped and killed your ukrainian mother?

This post was edited by duffman316 on May 5 2022 07:16am
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May 5 2022 07:16am
Quote (duffman316 @ May 5 2022 02:08pm)
I'd think the liberals are very open about acknowledging americas faults on the global stage. Plenty of warcrimes have been commited by america over the decades and I don't deny this. I do see them as the lesser evil though compared to russia and china.


I dont know what the expression liberal in this context means, I would say that reasonable people can acknowledge faults committed by countries (including but not limited to america). Its not safe to do a comparison to other countries noting ultimately they are different cultures, with different histories, different outlooks and that the issues are complex. As a compromise I would say that america is more open and grants people far liberties then those in russia or china. I am happy to be corrected on this point and/or if someone wants to tease this comment out to have a more appropriate view, go for it.

Quote (duffman316 @ May 5 2022 02:16pm)
While it would be nice if ukrainians took the high road in their treatment of russian savages i do not blame them. This is isn't a video game or movie, it's real life. Playing nice while the enemy is working to inflict as much misery on your populace as they can is not a smart idea. Hypothetically speaking what would you do with a russian soldier who raped and killed your ukrainian mother?


Your point is well made. All I am saying is in mirroring your opponents acts you risk the decent into becoming that very thing.

This post was edited by ferdia on May 5 2022 07:19am
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