Quote (ofthevoid @ 4 May 2022 18:31)
There is a fair amount of places where gas can be extracted from the problem is distance and infrastructure. The US, Arab peninsula, Africa, Venezuela, can all supply Europe with gas but just look at a map and look at the distance between Germany and Russia and Germany and the US or Germany and UAE or Germany and Venezuela. One is next door with supply lines already established and reliable the others are half a world away.
Quote (Hamsterbaby @ 4 May 2022 18:39)
Will increase the prices of Energy and it will be a huge burden to the people in Germany.
The people facing problems right now has not reach the german public yet.
The SMEs will be the first to fall in Germany.
Which goes back to what I already wrote in this thread a month ago: an embargo on Russian natural gas would be economical suicide for Europe. Yes, Europe, not just Germany. Russian gas cannot be replaced in an economically feasible fashion anytime soon.
I'm even against this stupid embargo on Russian oil that the EU is proposing atm - it will only lead to a reshuffling of the global oil market. If Europe no longer buys Russian oil, Russia will sell its excess oil production to China and India, ofc at a discount compared to the prices they achieved from the EU. The Chinese and Indians will then buy less from other suppliers on the oil market like the Gulf states. The EU will then buy up the OPEC oil which was freed up this way at a premium to replace the Russian oil.
At the end of the day, transport costs for oil on the global market will increase because more shipping is necessary as opposed to the cheaper pipelines, Europe will pay more for the same amount of oil, China and India less. OPEC will get somewhat higher profit margins. The effect on Russian finances is hard to predict; they will sell less and at a discount, but the turmoil and supply squeeze on the global markets will increase the price of oil, which counteracts these losses. Every scenario between Russia taking a medium-sized hit to Russia actually achieving higher revenue than before the sanctions seems feasible. This oil embargo is counterproductive for Europe and will most likely do fuck all to undermine Russia's economy in the long run.
Quote (ofthevoid @ 4 May 2022 18:04)
Because ze Germans can do math and being committed means self-destructing. In the long run Europe needs a relationship with Russia for resources, there's no other way.
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So realistically, if Norway was the sole supplier Norway would deplete their gas reserves in 3 years approximately. There's other suppliers like Algeria or the ME but you need years for the infrastructure to be built to be able to bring that gas over much longer distances (which means higher costs). North Africa and the ME are also not bastions of stability so to put all your faith in that supply chain panning out is dumb. US LNG is a thing but once again, very expensive compared to Russian gas next door.
It's such a tragedy really. Russia and Europe would be natural allies who could have such a symbiotic relationship.... if only the Russians weren't such miserable, antagonistic cunts. In the same vein, the Russian people could have a decent living if it wasn't getting plundered by its corrupt, greedy elite. The country has a tiny population relative to its size and its vast natural resources. If Russian leadership had given a larger share of the commodity revenues to its people and invested into diversifying and strengthening its economy, they could have such a bright future. *sigh*
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on May 4 2022 08:09pm