Quote (ofthevoid @ 4 May 2022 18:04)
Because ze Germans can do math and being committed means self-destructing. In the long run Europe needs a relationship with Russia for resources, there's no other way.
Just to give you rough estimate on gas.
Norway which is picking up much of the slack as many central/Northern EU countries are trying to move away from Russian gas had 1.4 trillion cubic meters in 2020. European gas consumption in 2020 was 380 billion cubic meters.
Obviously today those reserves are not at 1.4 T but lower. So realistically, if Norway was the sole supplier Norway would deplete their gas reserves in 3 years approximately. There's other suppliers like Algeria or the ME but you need years for the infrastructure to be built to be able to bring that gas over much longer distances (which means higher costs). North Africa and the ME are also not bastions of stability so to put all your faith in that supply chain panning out is dumb. US LNG is a thing but once again, very expensive compared to Russian gas next door.
Russia gas isn't cheap, of course Russians give you some discounts, like 10%, to make up for an European blood but that's it. They need a lot of money for missiles to kill people and conquer nationa, so they wont give you gas half price, as you maybe imagine.
Ever heard about renewables? Nuclear energy? Green hydrogen?
Very clean, endless sources of energy. And ones that Russia doesnt close as they recently did officially (Poland/Bulgaria) or unofficially (Germany).
It was the Germany and France that blocked Ukraine way into NATO.
They wanted to keep Putin glad and happy.
Now we see where this kind of thinking led us in Europe, we have a war right now on EU border.