Yeah, the important thing about controlling the virus during summer is that exponential growth multiplies quickly.

Starting with 1000 cases will cap out a fraction of a percent lower than a starting point of 10,000 cases, and theres no avoiding exponential growth in the winter.

In the U.S. weve been reaching hospital capacity in summer so winter is gonna be long and dark

This post was edited by Thor123422 on Oct 28 2020 01:43pm

But that's the real crux about the current surge across Europe: in most European countries, there was not really exponential growth - the curve was going up gradually over the summer and early fall, then the weather turned to shit, and 2 weeks later, boom, case numbers literally explode.

Here's the chart for Germany for this year:


You can see the first wave in March/April, then the calm early summer, then the rather linear increase from late July until early October. Then comes the "corner" or structural break marked by the red circle, which occured around October 7, followed by explosive growth ever since. We did not suddenly change our behavior that much... The curves for the UK, Italy and many smaller European countries look structurally similar.

So no, this is not a case of "things were already out of control months earlier, we just didnt realize yet that we were again in exponential growth because the absolute numbers were deceptively low". Something changed in that marked time period in early October. (Or in the 10-14 days before.)

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 28 2020 01:58pm

have u guys tried blaming it all on the jews?

Our government tried to blame it on the tourists and partying young people, but it's not convincing considering the exact same development also taking place in eastern european countries which saw far less tourism, and the fact that the party people were already active throughout most of the summer without triggering nationwide exponential growth.

You should ask your boss Netanyahou about this.



parties, definitely, by far ! And in winter it's even worse !

This post was edited by Saucisson6000 on Oct 28 2020 02:08pm

i see it as a catch 22, if the herd immunity approach was used early on deathtolls may have been WAY higher and reinfection could still have gotten a lot of people, but the longer u delay community spread the more lax people get and it blows up anyways.

i dont know what its like in germany, but here people are just so over covid lol. they were months ago, and started going back out and not distancing etc, and lookie there it explodes.

Yes, like I said yesterday: social distancing just goes completely against human nature. It was always a pipe dream to think that the people would keep that up for over a year. We're not as undisciplined as Americans, masks are not AS polarizing, etc., but yes, people are sick and tired of covid restrictions.

Due to the surging case numbers, our government issued new restrictions today. Bars, restaurants, clubs, hotels, gyms, the cultural and event industries as well as amateur sports have to shut down for 4 weeks, from Monday until the end of November. This time around, people from the event and hospitality industries have immediately pushed back against these measures, accusing the government of ruining their livelihood. They are getting seriously pissed off.

Another European example is Naples in Italy, where residents have been protesting/rioting for several nights in a row against a curfew and strict new measures which were imposed recently.
So yeah, patience is running low. This time around, the governments will probably be able to get most people to go along with their measures one more time. But only barely. I'm really sceptical that there would be the necessary support for a potential third lockdown later in the winter.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 28 2020 02:22pm

im the opposite, if i have an excuse to stay at home with my family i'd take it forever. literally, forever.

Same, I work from home most days, and I'm an introverted nerd anyway. I still want neither mass deaths nor an economic apocalypse. Both would affect me, even if I dont have or want to leave my home.

And I realize that it's really tough for extroverts, for school children, but also seniors in nursing homes which cannot receive visits from their family members.

I'm not saying it was out of control in Europe.

I'm saying that you will see exponential spread in winter almost no matter what you do, and since exponential growth is exponential doubling your starting point over doubles your end point. So it's important to keep that starting point as low as possible. I.e. starting with 10 cases might result in a peak of 1000 cases, but starting with 50 might result in a peak of 20,000. It's more than linear.

and that's why it's important to keep the numbers low in summer, which the United States failed to do.

This post was edited by Thor123422 on Oct 28 2020 02:40pm