Quote (Black XistenZ @ 3 May 2022 10:28)
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Russia has caught a bloody nose in Ukraine, even if they end up "winning" this war and seizing control over the eastern half of the country, their forces will still be depleted and their economy in shambles. That's why the "other countries next" argument is overblown - not because Russia lacks the intention, but rather because it lacks the strength to pull off yet another war right after this one.
For Russia the victory now means taking all Ukraine.
Its still possible outcome, even though I bet Ukrainians will defend ourselves.
In fact we dont know exact situation in Russia now, Russia doesnt publish its data any longer.
What we know: resources are record expensive in the world now, that makes Putin a lot of money. We know that western countries have limited their Russia orders, but we dont really know how much.
And really if peace treaty is made, there will be a big pressure in western countries to resume trading and start making Putin rich again.
We know that Ukraine destroyed like 1000tanks, but Russia has a lot of old spare tanks in their garages, from USSR times. We dont know their exact condition. So it depends how quickly can they train soldiers and how many will be willing to join the army.
We also dont know how close they will cooperate with China.
Its all question marks.
I wouldnt rule out anything yet, as we simply dont know.
In a year or so its possible Russia partially rebuilds to be ready for next war.