This is the start of the prices explosion for Russia. At some point they will no longer have products or it will be on black market...

CPI - March - vs - February -

usa
Core Inflation Rate 6.50 6.40 percent Mar 2022
Consumer Price Index CPI 287.71 284.18 points Mar 2022

Eu
Core Inflation Rate 3.60 3.30 percent Mar 2022
Consumer Price Index CPI 115.88 113.18 points Mar 2022

Russia
Core Inflation Rate 18.69 9.74 percent Mar 2022
Consumer Price Index CPI 740.50 688.10 points Mar 2022

/e how do you say that ? Tsunami ? "wave start" ?

This post was edited by Saucisson6000 on Apr 23 2022 02:30pm

The USSR disintegrated because it was made up of a bunch of republicans who are ethnically different. Russia is diverse in the far east and some parts in the south but it's mostly homogenous made up of Russians, so what's there to disintegrate in? When 80% of the population supports their leader then there's little to no chance.

edit just to be clear im not talking about why the USSR failed (because communism is a garbage economic system) rather the reason why the borders broke down they way they did.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Apr 23 2022 03:07pm

Majority of Kaliningrad people consider themselves Kaliningrad first, and probably would like to live in western world.
Majority of Belarusian people elected a new president but Lukashenko faked it and Russia backed them.
There are some regions with many muslims in Russia.
Chechnya is Russia-occupied territory.
Just some examples.
But disintegration can also mean something else: simply collapse of government.
Putin probably convinced many Russians that Ukrainians are led by nazi government, but its another thing to convince them that attacking Ukraine is as much important to justify many soldier deaths and a great decrase in quality of life.
Also Putin will run out of money, when west stops buying resources from him. Germany stops half of their Russia oil imports before june, and will cut-off oil imports completely until end of year. Many other countries have similar plans.
How can he run his country and the war, and keep his people happy, when he will have no money and trade bans? It will be a difficult task for him.

I agree about some regions like the Muslim south but that's not true for most of Russia. I mean I can look at pretty much every country and dissect various differences and say that they could break apart one way or another based on xyz ethnic or political difference.

Simply collapse of the government would leave the country in anarchy and would result in a ton of suffering. Like I'm not sure what that even means, if you mean something like Somalia then no I don't want that to happen to any country, that's terrible, people need police, garbage men, hospitals, functioning government to collec taxes to make it happen, etc.

It's possible the oil/gas bans could change the course of this war, or it's possible they don't and they will start selling more and more to China and south east Asia where 1/2 of all of the globe's population lives. Besides reality is Europe is still importing a tremendous amount of energy from Russia. For example in April, Russian oil imports went up from 1.3 million barrels per day to 1.6 million.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-oil-flows-but-increasingly-under-the-radar-11650541684

You live in Europe, look around, ask yourself, ask your neighbors and friends, are you prepared to pay close to 2x for your gasoline and gas to heat and cook going forward? Because that's what it will take if you really want to stop financing Russia's war.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Apr 23 2022 03:31pm

Damage the whole corruption structure by crushing economy then getting current core (Putin circle) ousted with war loss. People go down in the street, Basically the end of Gangsters Oligarches era.



Short scenario i hope for everyone.

its okay, in America we were told by the elite/people who control the government to just eat lentils and that will “solve inflation”

now I like lentils but eating them has never controlled prices lmao

This post was edited by excellence on Apr 23 2022 03:55pm

Gasoline:
My next car is going to be electric, charged from my own house photovoltaics supported by my own home energy magazine. no need for gasoline.
Sure such a car is a pain when you travel large distances, but I rarely do travel long distance by car. Can always borrow/exchange car with a family member, or rent it.
I work mainly from home, also in Europe there is an advanced public transportation.
Heating/electricity:
Here in Poland we have our own coal, and some own gas. Now, even before the Russian ban, world price of coal is 400usd, but our mines sell it for polish citizens for half that price (marked as "not for resale/export").
Do you know that you can make energy efficient houses, that need only a fraction of energy?
Even with ventilation, you can reclaim heat from outgoing air, to heat the incoming air. Technology is ready for all of it.
Sure, EU had some gas, oil and coal imports from Russia, and its difficult to make a total switch in short term, but its definitely doable in the middle term.
Also your prognosis seems too pesimistic, resources already went up very much because of war risk, they wouldnt go higher in my opinion. We in Europe already receive ships from the US that has plenty of resources because of their great "shale gas/oil" technology.

THE EMPIRE OF LIES WILL FALL!!!

As far you getting an electric car and the roof panels I applaud you for that but IMO that's not the norm, are your friends, neighbors, also planning to do that? If you look at research what it would actually take to go full electrical, it's a tremendous amount of resources and not realistic for decades. The world's grids aren't ready for it yet, nor do we have the metals like copper to make it happen any time soon. Best expectation is small amounts of the population transitioning slowly, like yourself.

Resources from Russia keep flowing though, that's the thing, the price you pay right now for gasoline is still with that resource coming in. When that goes offline due to a ban and the reservoirs are depleted the price will increase because it costs a lot more to ship oil from US an ocean away versus getting oil from next door Russia.


Also protesting Ukrainians in Manhattan break out in a Azov Battalion chant...can't make this up lmao

https://twitter.com/elaadeliahu/status/1517948443922255873

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Apr 23 2022 05:14pm

Most of my neighbours, who are houseowners, already have PV on their roofs. In fact i will be a little late adopter to that, due to some reasons I would rather not speak publicly.
At this time electric cars are donated, while gasoline ones are heavily taxed. For a house owners, who can charge them themselves without quite expensive fast charge stations, I believe that electric cars are already much cheaper to use than newly produced gasoline ones.
Thing is that we dont need a full switch as a country, we only should reduce usage, which we do anyway to reduce co2.
Prices are now crazy, and old rules dont apply.
US shale gas have a higher cost of manufacturing and transport, but when the world price is already crazy high, it doesnt matter any more.
Of course Russia resources are little cheaper, but its only a matter of like 10%. Because Russia doesnt calculate their price as "their manufacturing cost + 20% commision", they calculate as: "start with US, Norway price and give 10% discount".