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May 26 2023 12:52pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ May 26 2023 04:13am)
A technical recession of 0.8% during the height of an energy crisis is no big deal. Particularly since the gas and electricity prices have already come down from their peaks last summer/winter and are mostly close to their pre-war levels. The real issue for Germany is the long-term outlook: there is no political will to bring down energy prices any further or otherwise relieve consumers, there is also no will (from both politics and the capital side) to raise wages proportionally to inflation (meaning that consumer's real purchasing power is in decline), and there is strong political pressure on both businesses and citizens to invest a fuckton into climate measures which won't boost our long-term productivity or wealth (e.g. replacing all oil- or gas-based heating systems with heat pumps).

Energy sanctions against Russia were a failure, and for the record I was against them all along - but they're not the main culprit for the recession in Germany or the bad level of consumer confidence. Note that energy prices had already been soaring since mid-2021 - long before the onset of the war or the sanctions! - as a result of Russia messing with the markets in a clear preparation of the war that was to come several months later. Similarly, it was Russia which closed the gas tap starting in July 22; Germany was more than willing to continue to receive gas via Nord Stream 1 and had repeatedly blocked other countries' attempts at including natural gas on the sanction lists.

It's naive to think that the war and the economic decoupling between Russia and the West would have led to no turbulences on the markets and everything would be fine and dandy right now if only there had been no sanctions.


next winter will be even more difficult than the last one and we already are in a recession ^_^

but we are totally saving the world at least

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May 26 2023 01:43pm
Quote (JohnnyMcCoy @ 26 May 2023 20:52)
next winter will be even more difficult than the last one

How exactly? We went into this last winter with full gas storages and came out with a filling level of 63.7%, i.e. used up only roughly 36% of our capacity in spite of receiving no more natural gas from Russia.

Also note that our filling level is already back up at 73% (in spite of an unusually cold spring) and summer hasn't even started yet. By contrast, last year, we came out of the 21/22 winter with a filling level of just 24.6% and then had to buy up the global markets in a panic. This year, we will easily be able to fill our storages before the onset of winter without hurry and won't have to overpay nearly as much as we did last year.

https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/energiemonitor-deutschland-gaspreis-spritpreis-energieversorgung

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on May 26 2023 01:45pm
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Jun 8 2023 01:54pm
Quote (MSX98 @ Jun 8 2023 07:50pm)


Inb4 stating that those things don't happen in France
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Jun 8 2023 02:00pm
Quote (Djunior @ Jun 8 2023 08:54pm)
Inb4 ^Meanwhile stating that those things don't happen in France


Personal point scoring over a knife attack involving children. Jesus christ.

Your as useful as an ashtray on a motorbike. A literal waste of oxygen.
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Jun 8 2023 02:03pm
Quote (Prox1m1ty @ Jun 8 2023 10:00pm)
Personal point scoring over a knife attack involving children. Jesus christ.

Your as useful as an ashtray on a motorbike. A literal waste of oxygen.


Actually, is that guy stating that terrorist attacks don't happen in France

Your buddy btw

Pathetic
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Jun 8 2023 03:37pm
Quote (MSX98 @ 8 Jun 2023 19:50)

What a heinous, despicable act. :o

Quote
The suspect had legally applied for asylum late last year and on his application described himself to be a “Christian from Syria,”

Who wants to bet that the guy wasn't actually a Christian and just told this to European authorities in order to increase his chances for asylum (by masquerading as a member of a persecuted minority in his home country)?

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 8 2023 03:37pm
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Jun 8 2023 04:07pm
Quote (MSX98 @ 8 Jun 2023 19:50)

Quote (Djunior @ 8 Jun 2023 21:54)
Inb4 ^Meanwhile stating that those things don't happen in France


One posted 3 times in last months in this topic, only dramas related with immigration.
The other is enjoying himself over it so he can flame/criticize his God.


Infos about this because CNN is definitely incomplete:

google translate:

- the suspect of the knife attack which occurred in Annecy (Haute-Savoie) had "no criminal record".
- the alleged perpetrator had been "checked on Sunday". "A handrail was made and we had nothing to complain about"
- "A single identified author", according to the prosecutor.
- "No apparent terrorist motive"
- the suspect "is not known to any intelligence service" and has no "identified psychiatric history".
- Six people were injured, including four children, according to the Haute-Savoie prefecture. The vital prognosis of three victims, including two children, is engaged, learned franceinfo from a police source. The Annecy prosecutor clarified that "a 22-month-old child, two two-year-old children and a three-year-old child" are among the victims.
- The assailant said twice "in the name of Jesus Christ". The suspect said these words in English ("In the name of Jesus Christ") before attacking children in a playground, according to a video of the attack seen by franceinfo.
- he is also seen showing a pendant that he wears around his neck. A cross was found on him after his arrest, according to a source close to the investigation at franceinfo.
- The suspect is a Syrian asylum seeker. According to our information, the man arrested had on him an identity card corresponding to that of a man born in 1991, of Syrian nationality. Arriving in Sweden in 2013, he entered France legally in November 2022 and filed an asylum application there. Elisabeth Borne clarified that it was an "isolated individual".

- Gérald Darmanin (interior minister) announced earlier that the assailant from Annecy would undergo a psychiatric examination tomorrow morning.
- The suspect was today "too agitated" (police) to undergo a psychiatric examination... (a bit like some posters of pard)
- salute the courage and dedication of the person who attacks the assailant with a backpack and pursues him despite the risks he takes.
- nationalists demonstrated. They seem to forget the assassination dramas that happen on a regular basis to focus on that.

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Jun 8 2023 06:05pm
normal day in france, nothing to see here folks

Quote (Black XistenZ @ May 26 2023 09:43pm)
How exactly? We went into this last winter with full gas storages and came out with a filling level of 63.7%, i.e. used up only roughly 36% of our capacity in spite of receiving no more natural gas from Russia.

Also note that our filling level is already back up at 73% (in spite of an unusually cold spring) and summer hasn't even started yet. By contrast, last year, we came out of the 21/22 winter with a filling level of just 24.6% and then had to buy up the global markets in a panic. This year, we will easily be able to fill our storages before the onset of winter without hurry and won't have to overpay nearly as much as we did last year.

https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/energiemonitor-deutschland-gaspreis-spritpreis-energieversorgung


forgot to answer, but i was under the impression that pipeline gas was still flowing for a few months, which helped filling the reserves

the winter was mild and a reduction of consumption was only achieved by shitting down major chemical plants and other industrial natural gas users

gotta admit that our politicians are smart enough to not let people see directly how bad things are, somehow the discussion is mostly about the housing sector

BASF shutting down its ammonia production? the largest adblue producer going out of business? zero fucks given

for electricity shortages they are prepared as well, just pull the plug on the industry and the dumbass voters wont experience a blackout
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Jun 9 2023 02:35am
Quote (JohnnyMcCoy @ 9 Jun 2023 02:05)
forgot to answer, but i was under the impression that pipeline gas was still flowing for a few months, which helped filling the reserves

Sure, but we were able to keep refilling at a similar rate both in last spring/early summer (when pipeline gas was still flowing) and in late summer/fall (when the pipelines were fully throttled by Russia). And this year, we only have to refill 37% of our gas storages while we had to find gas for 75% in 2022.


Quote
the winter was mild and a reduction of consumption was only achieved by shitting down major chemical plants and other industrial natural gas users

gotta admit that our politicians are smart enough to not let people see directly how bad things are, somehow the discussion is mostly about the housing sector

BASF shutting down its ammonia production? the largest adblue producer going out of business? zero fucks given

We came out of the winter with our gas storages still 63% filled. We had an excess of gas left; why would we have shut down plants instead of using it? This explanation doesn't add up. The more logical explanation is that a select few industrial products which are particularly energy-hungry were shuttered because producing them was no longer profitable with Europe's/Germany's high energy prices. And truth be told, based on our lack of natural resources and our high population density, we will never outcompete China, India or the US on products which totally hinge on energy prices.

Imho, the biggest problem isn't some ammonia or adblue production, it's that our dipshit government doesn't even seem interested in bringing energy prices down further, even though this would be totally possible, even without Russian gas. Ammonia and adblue would still not be viable products even with these lower-but-achievable energy prices, but a ton of other products would. Likewise, lower energy prices would relieve private households and thus prop up the collapsing domestic consumption.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 9 2023 02:38am
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