Quote (thundercock @ Apr 20 2022 11:28pm)
I disagree. People who are descendants of Nazis should be ashamed for what their grandparents did. Americans should be ashamed for the awful stuff that we do currently. If you AREN'T ashamed then your country is likely to repeat the same thing.
I see what your problem is regarding Russia. You haven't recalibrated your understanding of the Russian military based on the current evidence. I too believed that Kiev would fall within days if Russia attacked, much like everyone else. I too believed that Chechen fighters were something to be feared. I too believed that Russia would have plans on how to properly occupy captured cities. Alas, I was wrong. Most of us were. That doesn't make Russia weak (far from it). But it does make Russia significantly weaker than we originally thought. Simply put, their ability to wage an offensive war is quite limited without seriously risking their national security. Can they go all in on Ukraine without Japan eyeing the Kuril Islands? What about South Ossetia? At some point, difficult decisions need to be made.
The biggest blow to Russian national security is that we KNOW their capabilities now. We've SEEN how they fight which is why the other countries keep sending heavier equipment. What could Russia possibly do to stop them? I suppose it should have been obvious from the beginning (the US defense budget is comparable to Russia's entire GDP) but Russia's strength from the Cold War simply blinded us.
As for Ukraine beating Russia militarily, I think you're probably right about that. Afghanistan couldn't beat us militarily either. Neither could the Vietnamese. We fucking kicked their asses. But at the end of the day, the Taliban is in charge of Afghanistan and the Communists are in charge of Vietnam. Russia doesn't have the resources to occupy East Ukraine indefinitely.
They're not going for the full Ukraine, that's pretty clear now. I disagree with them not being able to hold the east. There's a reason why I highlighted the voting patterns from 2010. Most people there will just accept Russia and in 10-15 years it'll be no different than Dagestan and Chechnya in opposition to Russia.