Quote (Hamsterbaby @ Apr 20 2022 01:57pm)
Oh yah that is a valid point, TSMC, it is something that I missed on top of my head but thank you for reminding me on that issue.
But I have another thought perhaps you can give me some inputs.
The reason why I don't see Americans intervening in Taiwan is this, to China Taiwan is a core issue, to Americans Taiwan is a peripheral issue.
Ok let's take it this way that America will help Taiwan repel China.
They can win the first time, second time , third or even fourth time because the Chinese military at the moment pales in comparison to the United States but it will never end.
So the contrast between the two in regards of National interest is very different. If I were the American Government, I know that I will go in the first time round and beat them one or two or three times but they will come back, and they must come back because it is a core issue.
I think as much as the America government mouth piece or media says yes we will help Taiwan such and such , but in their minds they have already made their calculations.
Hope for some input from you .
While China views Taiwan as a core issue, the rest of the world at least tacitly views them as a separate nation. We just don't give them official recognition due to how badly China would react.
I think it's an even wager whether China succeeds on its first try. US Navy surface units will have to stay well away from China's coasts, increasing time for aerial sorties to engage, and China has a massive ship building advantage. American supremacy in submarine warfare would determine if enough ships could be destroyed transiting the straight, but even then, Chinese airborne troops could be inserted with much greater ease (relatively speaking).