Quote (babun1024 @ Apr 19 2022 10:33am)
Having their firepower decimated makes it much easier to subdue them. They were artificially made more influental since Obama administration. In normal circumstances, more moderate parties would rule Ukraine.
In northern Ireland the IRA (a terrorist organization that sought for the unification of Ireland via terrorist activities) acquired a lot of sympathy from elements within the US and elsewhere. There is ample reading material on this. The IRA has now effectively stopped, and instead they pursue their goals through political means, namely, the Sinn Fein political party. It is worth noting however that while they have stopped, they are still there. Northern Ireland, even now, decades later, is still deeply divided with alot of social problems. One side wants to be ruled by England "unionists" while the other side wants to be united with southern ireland "republicans".
I would see similar issues in Ukraine. What is different is that Ireland is an island, and Ukraine is not, and therefore (please dont flame me
) ultimately if the two sides are not able to reconcile (highly likely) then a parting of ways honestly may be the best thing long term for Ukraine.
This debate on division is all months, if not years away, so there is really no point going in to this now or arguing the merits or fairness or logistics or morality. I know that the nazi element is not one and the same as those in eastern ukraine but they are all interconnected which is why overall it remains to be seen what Ukraine looks like by the end of all this.
The most likely scenario which I would see is after the war (if it ends anytime in the next 1 month to 5 years) the most likely outcome is that gun crime and drugs will go through the roof (as it did in northern ireland) noting the value of life will by then have sharply declined, as it did in ireland, in the eyes of radical organizations.
full disclosure, I am in the republic of ireland (southern ireland) and I would like if northern ireland integrated with southern ireland. i would like to see that in my life time but i would only hope for that if there was at least a 70% vote in northern ireland for that. (i am divided on such votes as 51/49 noting advancement is sometimes done by the narrowest of margins but that bad laws can also come into force via this means). if they want to rule themselves, let them. if they want to forge their own path, let them.
This post was edited by ferdia on Apr 19 2022 04:04am