Quote (Goomshill @ Apr 16 2022 06:12am)
that mobile launcher involves setting up a pad with multiple vehicles in a convoy. That's historically a great way for ICBMs to be untargetable for first strikes by keeping them moving, but in an open warzone with Russian cruise missiles and airstrikes able to hit anywhere? Its a target. You have to keep those vehicles safe from all the airstrikes targeting military equipment and factories and vehicle workshops for the past few weeks, then you have to deploy them without Russia having any surveillance to see it and destroy it, its not some shoot and scoot katyusha. And everyone lies about their cruise missile reliability and stages perfect weather condition and daylight tests on immobile targets with no countermeasures. Ukraine said both that they tested it throughout 2017- without sharing the results- and that their first successful test was in 2018. This happened at rough seas, in the night, 60 miles from shore. If Ukrainians have only a precious few missiles and waited nearly two months to deploy their missiles, why would they use them on such a risky shot instead of targeting a ship at port, or some other opportune target? Even if their own claim was true about using drones to distract them- the same drones used for targeting- that means they put a ship on the alert before firing their limited missiles. Of course we're talking about a Russian navy, so with 1960s point defense guns with no interdictor missiles, its doubtful it could have done anything to defend itself. Shoot down hostile aircraft targets, sure. But with point defense 30mm cannons with a radar designed for identifying aircraft at 5km distance, when a neptune travels 5km every 20 seconds?
We know the russian military will lie about it, we know the ukrainian military will lie about it, so without any evidence being presented, russian military being dumbasses seems more believable than ukrainians pulling off a miracle shot and being unable or unwilling to share their drone footage
The Russians *aren't* even remotely close to omniscient on the battlefield here. They're flying a couple dozen sorties per day max, their early warning detection over Ukraine is limited due to Ukrainian air defenses, their satellite surveillance is not capable of seeing the entire country in real time. Simply covering them in camouflage netting in a field/forest south of Odessa is sufficient to keep them safe. Russia's precision munitions stockpiles are rapidly dwindling, as is their capacity to restock them. It's a day/night system and the testing included Russian interference ECM which was overcome. Rough seas means the sea-skimming height is raised by maybe 7-10 meters. Not difficult to do at all.