Yeah the question is whether the slog keeps slogging or Russia stages a massive breakthrough. It could change on any day, or we could go 2 more years of creeping Russian advances. Putin plainly set his design on taking everything east of the Dnipro and that is still within his grasp
"Everything east of the Dnipro" seems too ambitious if you ask me. That would mean taking not just the full Donbass, but also Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk, two of the largest cities in all of Ukraine. And if they wanted to siege these two cities, they would have to put up camp in the open field where their troops would be sitting ducks. Once you break out of the hilly terrain of the Donbass, the flat plains mean that advances will be quicker, but holding positions and supply routes also becomes a lot more difficult.