I hold out rational hope that it won't happen for one simple reason: power disparities. The USA is orders of magnitude more powerful than any rival, which means they can largely keep the peace. In the previous world wars, there was relative parity in power levels between belligerents. That's not the case today. If the EU keeps spiraling and continuing to chimp out, the USA can ultimately straighten them out

This post was edited by El1te on Jun 26 2025 10:10am

I think I have mentioned that before a few years back to you.
It will most likely start in the East if it does.

Earliest 2009 / 2010.



The West might win most of the battles, but they are most likely to lose the war. Unless certain countries chicken out and decided that they have conscience which the West will probably win.

CCP do not have any conscience.

This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on Jun 26 2025 10:15am

The CCP has no conscience but it's soldiers who win wars, not political parties. Chinese soldiers are wholly inexperienced and not blooded - this means they're likely to disperse & flee at the first sign of danger. This happened to Saddam's army, which was very strong on paper and they even had some combat experience - they dispersed and fled after the shock and awe (blitzkrieg) tactic.

This post was edited by El1te on Jun 26 2025 10:25am

I am talking about 800 to 1 Billion Chinese lives for your 400 to 500 whatever lives. CCP do not have conscience you get what I mean? It will be MAD.

When that happens, it has got nothing to do with experience anymore. You think the Chinese is going to fight a conventional war with you ? I highly doubt so.


This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on Jun 26 2025 10:27am

I see it the other way around. The U.S. has lost the ability to practice diplomacy—look at the collapse of talks around Ukraine or its confrontational stance toward China. Instead of defusing conflicts, it escalates them—whether in Ukraine, Iran, or elsewhere. Worryingly, the EU seems to be following that path. We see European leaders praising the strikes on Iran, while refusing to seriously address the Israeli question. This suggests a shift: not toward peacekeeping, but toward militarized alignment.

It reminds me of something personal. I had two friends: one was aggressive and erratic, the other calm and principled—at first. But once they started spending time together, the calm one began defending the aggressor, not out of reason, but resentment and loyalty. That experience taught me how proximity and pressure can drag even rational actors into dangerous choices. I see Europe doing just that.

When leaders like Mark Rutte (Netherlands) and Friedrich Merz (Germany) openly cheerlead war and face no consequence or pushback, we can’t pretend their views are outliers. As Europe builds up its military and seriously discusses sending French and German troops into Ukraine, we must accept that we’re not walking toward peace—we’re climbing a stairway to heaven, with every step another escalation.

What I mean is that the CCP does not have God-like command over the people they govern. They can order 1 billion people to walk into a meat grinder, but the people have to be willing to do that themselves - the only thing that would make them be willing is fear of even worse reprisals by the CCP. But the CCP doesn't have the ability to enact reprisals on 1 billion people - so as soon as the fear of consequences is gone, their willingness is also gone.

Numbers are also largely meaningless in postmodern warfare. AoE attacks and force multiplication - its just a slaughter no many how many people you throw at it, and futile, and human beings are not bosons - they are still limited by physical volume. The invention of the machine gun nullified the zerg strategy, and cutting edge bombs and nukes nullified the attrition strategy. Russia only still employs this strategy successfully because they have a metric fuckton of detterent nukes

This post was edited by El1te on Jun 26 2025 10:36am

I think you misunderstood me. They won't have to command 1 billion people to walk into a meat grinder. They will play a game of Nuke lobbing with the West and see which civilization survives in the end.
I think we realized by now or at least to my knowledge, Israel and China are the main countries that do not allow IAEA to inspect their nuclear arsenal.

And when the dust settles, the Western Hemisphere " North America " will still have to face Central and South America.
If the Palestinians have this thing call racial, ethnic and national dignity, do you not think the Central and South Americans have that too ?

Why would they want to be Monroe doctrined by North America for another few hundred years.

This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on Jun 26 2025 10:38am

It goes back to the Russia / Nato position. If the US wants to play around with China, China has nukes and will use them if threatened. so troop numbers at a certain point becomes irrelevant. but China has a population of more 3 times that of the US if you want go down the troop numbers road.

TLDR: Yes the US army is the greatest army in the world. China would be stupid to fight man to man. the best way to describe it is, if a snakes comes into your house, you dont get on your belly to fight it. you pull out a gun and shoot it.

This post was edited by ferdia on Jun 26 2025 10:40am

They have no ability to win in a game of nuke lobbing with the USA - they have some nukes, sure, but much more limited ability in weaponizing those nukes worldwide and delivering them to target. The Chinese navy is very weak. They have no ability to beat the USA at that game - the power disparity is too great. The lion's share of nuclear deterrence comes from Russia - if Russia and USA decide to ally themselves, China is boned.

This post was edited by El1te on Jun 26 2025 10:41am

The US has alienated Russia over the last couple of years. Russia and China relations are the strongest they have ever been in history.

China is building alot of things. electric cars, solar farms, nuclear subs. it is leading in all of these. All they need is time. so if today they have 6 ballistic subs, by next year they will have 12. you see where that is going?

This post was edited by ferdia on Jun 26 2025 10:45am