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May 22 2025 01:42pm
Let’s be honest - this war is effectively over.

Sure, it takes them some time to negotiate conditions and a lot of influencial, rich corporations are taking good care to secure their interest, but we all know how this movie will end. Sooner or later.

While previously it wasn’t clear whether escalation or deescalation would be in play.


Russia still aims to take everything east of the Dnipro and that goal seems achievable, but we're just in the middle of the road. Which does mean there is room for unexpected developments, but every classical indicator points to this ending with bloody attrition for Russian incremental gains, or just total collapse of Ukraine and Russia taking as much as they want

/e curse you 49000 ^^

This post was edited by Goomshill on May 22 2025 01:43pm
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May 22 2025 08:05pm
Nope. Zero progress on Russia's willingness to negotiate a proper compromise, next to no progress on Ukraine's willingness either. And also zero progress in terms of ideas on how to solve the dicey, problematic questions (security guarantees, where to draw the lines, etc.)






And when he did and Zelensky agreed to negotiate in person, Putin refused to show up and instead sent a deliberately obscure third rate politician as Russia's representative. Make of that what you will.


So, inviting the head of the 2022 delegation to the negotiations again, which are taking place in Turkey once more- is that inconsistent? :)

Of course, I understand that the members of the 2022 Ukrainian delegation have essentially been sidelined after being implicated in corruption scandals- such as supplying food at inflated prices (sometimes by tens of times) through affiliated entities, as well as procuring artillery shells from abroad at excessive costs, leading to shortages of up to 50% (insert Prigozhin meme here).So they can no longer participate. Yet they’re not in prison either. That’s the inconsistency

This post was edited by Norlander on May 22 2025 08:15pm
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May 22 2025 08:42pm
In principle, for the start of negotiations- that’s already not bad, and this is indeed a beginning. I don’t recall any cases, apart from goodwill, of a cessation of hostilities during negotiations. As for the meeting of foreign ministers, I can just picture Molotov and Ribbentrop meeting in 1943 somewhere in Italy (Turkey is a NATO member and has been supplying weapons to Ukraine since the very first days of the conflict, if not earlier). Or Hitler, suddenly popping in with the words: "Hey Josy, come over or chicken."

This post was edited by Norlander on May 22 2025 08:42pm
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May 23 2025 12:23am
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/may/22/germany-anti-russian-defence-nato-lithuania-friedrich-merz

Germany is now deploying its troops on the Russian border in Lithuania, the first permanent foreign deployment since the last reich was defeated.
They are seeking to encircle Kaliningrad with the Polish, since the Lithuanians can't do it on their own

Quote
The German chancellor said: “This is appropriate for Europe’s most populous and economically powerful country. Our friends and partners also expect this from us. Indeed, they practically demand it.”


They've previously deployed temporary troops but this is a huge increase with 5000 troops and armor.
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May 23 2025 02:46am
I wouldn't really call a meeting which basically ends with "we agree to disagree" a great breakthrough or the beginning of ongoing ceasefire talks.

Even if Putin himself was too scared to drag his sorry ass out of the Kremlin, he could have sent his foreign minister Lawrow to Istanbul. Instead sending the minister of culture, an obscure guy who nobody had ever heard of, was unmistakably a gesture of disrespect, a figurative middle finger toward Trump and his efforts at brokering a peace deal.





Trump has no influence on Putin because he refuses to use any leverage the US could wield against Russia. His whole theory of the case is the mistaken belief that Russia being wronged by the West is the root cause of this conflict and that appeasing Russia would therefore lead to peace. The way the Istanbul meeting went down imho once and for all proved this assumption wrong.




You're essentially arguing that Ukraine must surrender unconditionally and simply accept every single Russian demand.


with brevity, the fact that the west has finally entertained the notion of talks is a huge step forward. i would not dismiss any dialogue, as its better then none.
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May 23 2025 02:47am
Azov is visiting Bundestag.

Normalizing Nazism.

Cute.




Western mainstream:
Liberal pro-Western forces in Ukraine united to defend their country against Putin’s fascist regime. The far right played next no role because they only get 2% in elections; their units are completely “de-politicised” and integrated into Ukrainian armed forces.

Azov Nazis on Telegram:
In the first days of the full-out invasion of Soviet remnants into Ukraine, nationalists and national-socialists were in the vanguard of rebuffing the left-wing Golden Horde bio-garbage.


This post was edited by Malopox on May 23 2025 03:09am
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May 23 2025 07:53am
Azov is visiting Bundestag.

Normalizing Nazism.

Cute.

https://i.imgur.com/bOOtyfc.png


Western mainstream:
Liberal pro-Western forces in Ukraine united to defend their country against Putin’s fascist regime. The far right played next no role because they only get 2% in elections; their units are completely “de-politicised” and integrated into Ukrainian armed forces.

Azov Nazis on Telegram:
In the first days of the full-out invasion of Soviet remnants into Ukraine, nationalists and national-socialists were in the vanguard of rebuffing the left-wing Golden Horde bio-garbage.
https://i.imgur.com/PBxbdZh.jpeg


Базанул как слон

-Grandpa, is it true that the Soviets killed Christians?
-Yes, my dear.
-How could they tell who was a Christian?
-Their belt buckles said "Gott mit uns".
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May 23 2025 01:21pm
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy4eyjxz7eno

270 soldiers and 120 civilians were released from each side, 390 of the 1000 for 10000
Thats the first swap actually completed, a good sign
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May 23 2025 07:14pm
Kyiv is under significant bombardment, unclear how heavy it is but clearly multiple iskanders and other missiles / drones are being intercepted by ground targets
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May 24 2025 07:56am
Nope. Zero progress on Russia's willingness to negotiate a proper compromise, next to no progress on Ukraine's willingness either. And also zero progress in terms of ideas on how to solve the dicey, problematic questions (security guarantees, where to draw the lines, etc.)






And when he did and Zelensky agreed to negotiate in person, Putin refused to show up and instead sent a deliberately obscure third rate politician as Russia's representative. Make of that what you will.


I don't buy the bullshit about "Putin has to come in person" narrative. Zelensky is a nobody. Point is whether both sides really want peace then they'll find a way to achieve the target.
As I see for now, " Im Osten nichts Neues".
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