https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/21/europe/madrid-shooting-ukrainian-ex-politician-portnov-intl

Looks like Ukrainians carried out an assassination inside NATO, I'll be waiting for all the same condemnations and sanctions as the west did on Russia for the same thing

As long as the West doesn't find and uses additional leverage against Russia, Russia has zero reason to pursue peace, either.
If the West pulls the plug instead, the outcome will be the unconditional surrender of Ukraine, or a Germany-1945-style collapse followed by full occupation of all Ukrainian territories up to Kyiv.

Neither a collapse and occupation of Ukraine nor a drastic increase of Western support and arms supplies is attractive at all from a Western perspective. We're stuck and out of ideas.
And like I've stressed since the get go: Trump was/is delusional if he thinks he can will a peace deal into existence just because he says so.

They literally told us the asks that would lead to a peace though. Getting the 4 oblasts and no NATO. You can't say they are not pursuing peace. To me their ask is a lot more in line with reality on the ground vs Ukraine demanding everything back and NATO membership.

Demanding entire oblasts like Zap, of which they don't control even a third, is a preposterous demand and clearly intended as a poison pill because Russia isn't actually interested in negotiations yet and just trying to buy more time.


Side note: remember how the pro-Russian posters in this thread stressed time and time again how the prospect of Ukrainian NATO membership was allegedly the casus belli and how preventing that was THE primary Russian goal in this war? Remember how the pro-Ukraine posters, myself included, argued that this war is about more than that, is about Russia trying to restore/expand its empire in a broader sense? Well, Trump has officially taken Ukrainian NATO membership off the table, yet Russia isn't impressed in the slightest and brazenly demands to be gifted territory.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on May 21 2025 07:42am

You're familiar with negotiation tactics right? Start with a very high ask fully realizing that you will be moving towards some middle. I've said this before, i think Russians ultimately want the full Donetsk, while Zap city and north bank of Kherson is unrealistic.

In contrast Ukraine says they will still join NATO and never give up the 4 Oblasts. Which of the two sides is closer to reality or closer to some middle ground?

One post earlier, you claimed that Russia "told us the asks which would lead to peace [...] can't say they aren't pursuing peace". Now, you turn around and essentially argue that "well, duh, of course their asks are overblown and unacceptable, it's part of their negotiation tactic".


On the substance, I'm kinda with you, though: the settlement will be something along the lines of "Russia gets to keep what they currently control in Zap and Kherson oblasts plus a small buffer zone, Ukraine withdraws from the tiny strip of land they still control in Donetsk". I'd say the big crux will be the city of Kharkiv. That's the one major piece which both sides imho really want and are unwilling to give up.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on May 21 2025 09:08am

Ukraine still controls about ~40% of Donetsk with a fair amount of cities that aren't bombed out parking lots. Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Pokrovsk, etc. I believe the Russians want to secure the rest of Donetsk through peaceful means, they want those larger cities in tact and not have to rebuild them from ground up. Kramatorsk/Slovyansk are also pretty large and the battles and cost in lives would be high if Bakhmut is any indication. Talking about hundreds of thousands in KIA between both sides. To me, what happens to rest of Donetsk is the biggest wedge to overcome for peace to happen IMO.

They asked it on day one of the invasion in February 2022, demands haven’t changed a single bit.

no NATO / neutrality (demilitarisation goal),
Lugansk / Donetsk region borders restored,
no persecution of Russian speakers (denazification goal).

I don't see a lot of good options for Ukraine. Russia is unlikely to accept peace along current lines, they'll demand at a minimum that Ukraine withdraw from Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, but accepting even that would likely lead to the collapse of Ukraine's government. I can understand Ukraine's actions, they're holding out for a very small hope that the Russian economy eventually runs out of bandwidth and the war has to end in a stalemate.

Oh fml, I conflated Donetsk and Luhansk. They barely control anything in Luhansk anymore, but you're of course right that they still hold strong in Donetsk around Slovyansk/Kramatorsk.




Demands have definitely grown over time. Months after the start of the war, Russia unilaterally declared 4 oblasts annexed although they didn't control most of them, and now they demand that Ukraine cedes these oblasts.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on May 21 2025 03:42pm