The cashback from Kursk oblast "Pyaterochka" has arrived

This post was edited by Norlander on Apr 13 2025 06:30am

just dumping this here noting the noise around it has died down:

As of April 13, 2025, negotiations between the United States and Ukraine over a proposed mineral resources agreement remain unresolved and contentious. The deal, initially drafted in February, aims to establish a joint investment framework granting the U.S. significant access to Ukraine's critical minerals—including lithium, graphite, and titanium—in exchange for economic support and potential contributions to Ukraine's post-war reconstruction. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has resisted the current terms, primarily due to the absence of explicit U.S. security guarantees. Ukraine insists that any economic agreement must be directly linked to such assurances, especially given the ongoing Russian occupation of 20% of Ukrainian territory . The U.S. proposal also controversially seeks control over a key gas pipeline that transports Russian natural gas through Ukraine to Europe, further complicating negotiations.​Technical discussions resumed in Washington on April 11, with Ukraine dispatching a negotiation team to address the deal's specifics. The talks aim to reconcile differences over project selection, legal frameworks, and long-term investment mechanisms. Despite these efforts, the deal remains unsigned, and both parties continue to navigate the complex interplay of economic interests and security concerns.​

TLDR: The United States of America continues to try to strong arm / steal Ukraine's minerals.

quite difficult to argue this one but users are free to try, i do like a good argument!

This post was edited by ferdia on Apr 13 2025 10:10am

It's a stupid plan which the US side hasn't really thought through if you ask me.

1. No US company will invest in the necessary extraction infrastructure without a reliable peace.
2. A significant share of the most interesting rare earths which this contract aims to secure for the US actually lie in the Russian-controlled parts of the country.
3. What's the point of the US controlling a natural gas pipeline when it is Russia which needs to supply the gas for it?

Well, why is it a bad plan? It worked with Poland in 1939, and let me remind you that a significant part of modern Ukraine was part of that Poland. Interesting, was there also a Holodomor there, and who was to blame for it? So many questions- so few answers. And who's gonna be a Hitler? Orange man or Bloodimir?

Your position has sidestepped the moral bankruptcy element, on the part of the US. However, As I understand it Russia does not mind working with the US on points 1, 2 and 3. (in this regard I can say both the US and Russia are looting a dead body).

This post was edited by ferdia on Apr 13 2025 10:45am

I try to avoid moralizing arguments when discussing issues. Particularly when it comes to this conflict in which both sides' propaganda is working overtime framing the respective other as the true villains.

Russia didn't sacrifice so much blood, money and trust for this war, only to then share the spoils equitably. Particularly not when a peace deal is made while they have the upper hand on the battlefield and the other side has no leverage over them due to the Western unwillingness to escalate the conflict much further.

The shredded trustworthiness is also a major factor. Even if Russia is signaling a willingness to cooperate on points 1. and 3., how can we ever trust them again? After everything that happened these past years, how can we trust them to a sufficient degree such that hundreds of millions of dollars in investment or the energy supplies of Europe's economy can be based on their word? I don't really see it.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Apr 13 2025 11:46am

Ye similar to the Israeli thread I am losing a bit of time responding to posts like this. This has all been said and argued before.

The US probably thinks that it can just wait out the Russians:

1) Liquid assets in their NWF are depleted and can only be used to fund Russia's budget deficit for approximately one year.
2) The recent drop in the price of Ural crude will reduce the ability of Russia to fund the military while keeping domestic expenditure intact. The FT article I linked estimates a 2.5% decrease in oil revenue from this, which is significant, but not catastrophic.
3) The rate of Russian advances have slowed in the past few months.
4) It's relatively cheap for the West to fund Ukraine with their economies intact, while Russia suffers.

Meanwhile, the Russians likely want to wait out the US:

1) Any land they take from Ukraine will almost certainly be ceded to them permanently in a US-negotiated deal, so a big push this year makes sense.
2) Recruitment rates in the Russian military are increasing, at a time when many western analysts forecasted a decrease. This is likely due to the government having to increase the financial incentives for joining, but it's having the desired effect.
3) Ukraine have a manpower issue that isn't going away. Ukraine's strength is in unmanned systems but that can only do so much.

This post was edited by dro94 on Apr 13 2025 02:08pm

Sounds like the target of the attack in Sumy has been identified as an awards ceremony by the 117th brigade, which isn't notable its just the Sumy-based UA ground forces.
But the ceremony was apparently set up to be more of a festival with children and families invited alongside the officers, hence at least 2 children killed and 10 injured alongside 29 more skilled and 74 more injured, which are probably a significant number of officers in the UA forces
A Ukrainian MP suggested it was an intelligence leak that let Russia know about the gathering in advance, but witnesses interviewed in Sumy have said on camera it was not secret and was written about on social media
The mayor of nearby Konotop went farther and blamed the oblast governor Volodymyr Artyukh for organizing the ceremony and described him like George Costanza in a fire; "he was the first to flee — knocking over children on his way out."
Even UA propaganda outlets seem to be admitting it was a military gathering with civilians invited and are talking about the lack of security and blame for it, of course they still say it was a terrorist attack for killing civilians

The bringing of children is deliberate, they want them killed

Ukrainians are no different from Hamas