Imho, you're falling for a false dilemma fallacy here. A Ukrainian or Russian capitulation aren't the only possible outcomes. "Russia ultimately accomplishes its core goals, but it was so painful and costly that they will think twice about invading Ukraine again" is a middle of the road outcome, and clearly the one the West had been striving for for the past 2 years, roughly since the Ukrainian counteroffensive failed and it became clear that Crimea and the DPR/LPR were gone.
We could sell that as a spin, we could wrap up as loss in that language, but Zelensky got up in the oval office and bluntly said that is not enough. Every word out of his mouth was about a security guarantee. A resource deal only as a stepping stone to a security guarantee, it being his condition for any ceasefire. Well we're already shipping him more weapons than we did to the allies in WW2 lend lease, and he's talking about a NATO foothold.
I think the best form of guarantee Ukraine could have had from Russia invading was to work with both the West and Russia economically, so that the war wouldn’t be in anyone’s interest.
But, instead, they chose to be NATO’s pawn in putting more and more pressure on Russia, moving military bases closer to the Russian border. Also a completely corrupt country, with bioweapon labs, no rule of law, oligarchs laundering public money, etc.
The LNG thing is a great example of how that
could have been done. Baltic states, Ukraine included, didn't want to be reliant on Russian gas that could be leveraged against them. By having LNG terminals they make American gas competitive- which doesn't necessarily make them reliant entirely on the west, instead it gives an economic pressure on Russia to not weaponize the gas supply and keep that economic relationship steady. And that was also exactly what Trump was pursuing in his first term foreign policy. But along came Dark Brandon and we instead blew up the Russian pipelines in a naked bit of economic warfare. Without economic incentive, Russia had no reason to compromise and only dug in harder and invested more in the war.