100% this.

I'm increasingly of the opinion that the security guarantees will be the crux of these peace negotiations. At this point, I believe that a clear majority of Ukraine has come to terms with losing Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk and the land bridge along the Sea of Azov, and would be willing to cede these places if it gets them peace. Dito with giving up on their direct NATO aspirations, particularly when we keep in mind that many NATO members have no actual appetite for Ukrainian membership anytime soon.

But Russia is clearly trying to get Ukraine in a disarmed, defenseless state which will, in the future, leave them no other option than to do Moscow's bidding because Russian tanks could waltz in with ease whenever they feel like it. It's Russia's way of turning Ukraine into its vassal/satellite again, even if the government in Kyiv is hostile and pro-Western. So the crux now is which kinds of security guarantees the US, the EU, NATO or some other kind of "coalition of the willing" could offer them to dispel those concerns. I have a hard time comign up with any arrangement the Western partners would actually be willing to commit to which is strong enough to deter the Russians. Side note: this point was already one of the key unresolved obstacles during the Istanbul negotiations back in 2022.

And then you also have the tactical problem that Russia won't just accept very strong Western security guarantees during peace talks. This means that from a tactical pov, the Ukrainian/Western side would have to start with even stronger guarantees, so that what remains of them after both sides made concessions and settled on a compromise is still strong enough to make Russia think twice about coming back in a few years.

Trump and his team have a really heavy lift on their hands...

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jan 22 2025 03:58am

What happened early 2014? Had it something to do with Maidan something something?

How thick is your skull?

It must be pretty thick, because I looked up the quote and it say involvement in Crimea, not Ukraine, so he lied to try and make his point. (I'm sure its not the first time)
I think I found a video of him though.

Ukraine would've been fine if it had not sought NATO membership. No war.

Now, after everything that has happened, the hundreds of billions in Western military aid, all the casualties and destruction, is it any wonder that the Russians demand this? Nope.

You should be realistic, if you lose a war you gonna face the consequences.

Trump should abandon them, this is 100% Joe Biden, and Ukraines creation.
Had the 2020 election not been rigged, then there would of been no Trump touting that he is going to fast track Ukraine into NATO.
Elections have consequences, unfortunately for men in Ukraine those consequences were a death sentence so some Americans could pat themselves on the back.
Feel like they are the right side of history, and like all problems, and destruction they create, just walk away from it like some bastard child.

Trump has said he want this conflict to end as soon as possible.

Hope it does it's really sad, the obvious decision to make at the onset was to just pick up the phone and agree to Russia's terms of no Ukraine in NATO.
And that the people in the western half of the country who don't even want to be part of Ukraine any more be allowed to speak their native Russian language instead of this new made up Ukrainian language (Which is just Russian with new funny words replacing old ones)
Strategically what did the US/NATO get out of sticking its dick in this hornets nest?
It got exposed as the ineffective paper tiger it is.

Speaking in Davos, Zelensky said that the US and Germany were lying about Ukraine’s future NATO membership and that it was unfair to Ukrainian people. Watch from 10:24

Of course Zelensky himself said on a number of occasions that Ukraine would join NATO.

All in all, he is building “the West betrayed us” narrative for domestic use which will help him sell peace agreements tantamount to defeat later this year.

I hope one of his own people kills him after he flees the country.

CIA murdered Ngô Đình Diệm when he was no longer useful.