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Jan 16 2025 11:46am
So, Finlandisation deal - which worked well for Finland for decades.

- strict neutrality & they lost about 10% land

- no nato: this should be easy as it’s patently obvious west has no intention of ever offering ukraine membership

- neutrality: also easy. Ukraine had that in constitution until 2014. W/o nato it’s the only choice

- bilateral security deals: Putin says this acceptable. So the key nego for Kyiv is not with Russia but London Paris Berlin & WH. The prob with this is west is not keen to offer Kyiv any sort of real deal. This is where peace deal will fail.

- army: another tough nut. How small is small? But this was largely agreed already in Istanbul

- territory: another hard one to swallow. But have to accept no way ukraine is getting back all 20% lost.

Crimea is a write off. Forget it.
Landbridge I doubt any wiggle room.
But Donbas & 4 regions kremlin already said there’s wiggle room

Also Putin here is saying he’s willing to trade to get Kursk territory back.

Can ze swallow losing say 15%? I don’t think he has much choice.


In a broader context, anything along the lines of the ceasefire deal you have just described, would be an incomparable failure by the Russian military, to achieve the dictators own objectives.
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Jan 16 2025 12:32pm
Russia to start making war elephants aoe2 style

Russia sold six Su-30s for ‘six live elephants’, a source said
some reports suggest the animals were part of the payment arrangement for the six Su-30SMEs, which Myanmar had agreed to purchase from Russia in 2018. These claims are made by Radio France Internationale, which suggest that the elephants were extracted from the wild as part of a barter-like deal between Myanmar’s military leadership and Russian authorities.
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2025/01/16/russia-sold-six-su-30s-for-six-live-elephants-a-source-said/

Ukraine needs to double-up on mangonels
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Jan 16 2025 12:58pm
So after łaunching a fullscale war on Ukraine, Putin demands Ukraine to reduce their army size as part of peace negotiations.
Why does he need Ukraine to reduce their army size?
Can you imagine ukrainian army ever invade Russia, biggest country in the world, that also has plenty nukes?
A country that even Hitler and Napoleon failed to conquer?
Of course not.
Sadly the only logical explanation is that he wants to attack again, and would like to have an advantage next time.
Not a good deal for Ukraine imo.
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Jan 16 2025 01:11pm
So after łaunching a fullscale war on Ukraine, Putin demands Ukraine to reduce their army size as part of peace negotiations.
Why does he need Ukraine to reduce their army size?
Can you imagine ukrainian army ever invade Russia, biggest country in the world, that also has plenty nukes?
A country that even Hitler and Napoleon failed to conquer?
Of course not.
Sadly the only logical explanation is that he wants to attack again, and would like to have an advantage next time.
Not a good deal for Ukraine imo.


Ukraine could've prevented the war before it had even started, that would've been the best deal for Ukraine.
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Jan 16 2025 01:14pm
Dear ChatGPT, what were Russia's demands prior to invading Ukraine ?

Before invading Ukraine in February 2022, Russia made several demands, including:

NATO Expansion Halt: Russia insisted that NATO cease its eastward expansion and deny membership to Ukraine and other former Soviet states.
Neutrality for Ukraine: Moscow wanted Ukraine to remain neutral and avoid closer ties with Western military alliances.
Recognition of Crimea: Russia demanded Ukraine recognize Crimea as Russian territory following its annexation in 2014.
Autonomy for Donbas: Russia sought greater autonomy for the separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk under the Minsk agreements.
Demilitarization: Russia pushed for Ukraine to limit its military capabilities, particularly along its eastern borders.

These demands were rejected by Ukraine and Western nations, contributing to escalating tensions that culminated in the invasion.

Dear ChatGPT, this does not seem to be widely known, where can I or how can I prove the above is true? I thought Russia wanted to invade Europe, thats what everyone said.

The claim that Russia made specific demands prior to invading Ukraine is widely documented and stems from diplomatic exchanges before the conflict escalated in February 2022. You can verify this information through official statements, news reports, and analyses from credible sources. Here are also some links:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prelude_to_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://nypost.com/2025/01/11/world-news/putins-main-goal-is-to-make-sure-ukraine-never-joins-nato/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.huffingtonpost.es/global/putin-pone-coto-ambicion-ucraniabr.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prelude_to_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine?utm_source=chatgpt.com

If you dont think that Ukraine should negotiate and they should keep on fighting, your more then welcome to join them, as a mercenary ofc, not as a polish soldier, as that would result in world war 3. However, Ukraine is currently gutting its air force and transferring them to the infantry.

As we speak Ukraine is losing on virtually all fronts, a transfer from aviation to infantry such as what we see happening is a sign of the end. If there is no negotiated deal we are looking at the real prospect of an utter defeat. which would have even harsher terms by the way. Back in 2019 Ukraine said they would be at war with Russia. Therefore Russia's demands in this regard (neutrality, mimimal armed forces) are quite reasonable and have historic precedents.

The same thing happened to Poland from 1772 right up till the end of World War 1. Germany, Austria, Japan, there are alot of precedents.

This post was edited by ferdia on Jan 16 2025 01:28pm
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Jan 16 2025 01:27pm
Ukraine could've prevented the war before it had even started, that would've been the best deal for Ukraine.


Of course they could join NATO in the 90s, when there was no Putin, but they didnt want to cut all the deals they had with Russia and decided to go for Neutrality and trust Russia instead.
That was a bad decision but what can we do now about it? Not much

This post was edited by Ironfister on Jan 16 2025 01:29pm
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Jan 16 2025 01:30pm
Of course they could join NATO in the 90s, when there was no Putin, but they didnt want to cut all the deals they had with Russia and decided to go for Neutrality and trust Russia instead.


Yes and then the US sent NGO's into Ukraine (same with Georgia). Thats not all the US did, they also helped Ukraine carry out a coup in 2014, and they weaponized Ukraine for 8 years while ukraine bombed their own people. wait why am I repeating myself lol! what an exercise in stupidity. carry on. Russia bad ! rewr! they want to invade poland and germany! good thing i am all the way over in ireland, what do i know i live in a country of cowards (your words not mine).



oh snap, this looks familiar!

This post was edited by ferdia on Jan 16 2025 01:34pm
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Jan 16 2025 01:35pm
°ferdia
Question:
Dear chatgpt, is it good idea for country next to Russia, like Ukraine, to trust Russia and reduce their army size, leaving them defenseless to Russia?

Answer:
Given the historical context and recent events, it would generally not be advisable for a country neighboring Russia, such as Ukraine, to significantly reduce its army size and leave itself defenseless. Trust between nations, especially those with complex and often adversarial histories, must be built on consistent, reliable actions over time.
For Ukraine, maintaining a robust defense is essential for several reasons(...)
Therefore, reducing military readiness in such a context could pose significant risks. Diplomatic efforts and dialogue are important, but they should be complemented by a strong, credible defense capability.
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Jan 16 2025 01:42pm
Yes and then the US sent NGO's into Ukraine (same with Georgia). Thats not all the US did, they also helped Ukraine carry out a coup in 2014, and they weaponized Ukraine for 8 years while ukraine bombed their own people. wait why am I repeating myself lol! what an exercise in stupidity. carry on. Russia bad ! rewr! they want to invade poland and germany! good thing i am all the way over in ireland, what do i know i live in a country of cowards (your words not mine).

https://i.imgur.com/hyp4Wy8.png

oh snap, this looks familiar!


Irish people arent cowards, but you (one person) possibly are. Cant know that for sure though.
Ukraine was not bombing their own people, and Ukrainians wanted to join western world and they revolted to refuse Russia.
West world soft power is that people want to live the western life.
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