Quote (zorzin @ 13 Dec 2024 22:11)
NATO Secretary General implores allies to shift to wartime mindset and spend more on defence
Starting out by noting that Ukraine, where “Russian bombs are falling”, is just a day’s drive from Brussels, Rutte said of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of that country, “Putin is trying to wipe Ukraine off the map. He is trying to fundamentally change the security architecture that has kept Europe safe for decades. And he is trying to crush our freedom and way of life.”
In 2025, the total military spending will be 7 to 8% of GDP, if not more. That’s a third of Russia’s state budget – and the highest level since the Cold War,” he said. “And Russia’s defence industry is producing huge numbers of tanks, armoured vehicles, and ammunition. What Russia lacks in quality, it makes up for in quantity – with the help of China, Iran and North Korea. This all points in one clear direction: Russia is preparing for long-term confrontation: with Ukraine, and with us
https://euro-sd.com/2024/12/major-news/41871/rutte-shift-to-wartime-mindset/Will the euros listen? Do they have what it takes to defend their borders without the help of uncle sam?
There's not going to be kinetic warfare between NATO and Russia. Right now, tensions are being rhetorically ramped up because the USA is about to switch to an uncertain ally, and because it serves a response to Russia's rhetorical escalations (think of the recent calls by Russia to the USA).
Another important point: there is no political will amongst Europeans to go to war, and the already mostly unpopular European governments don't have the political capital to spend on going to war. They're already struggling to maintain power against growing opposition parties demanding an end to even Ukraine support.
Rutte's statements should be read in the context of a military alliance struggling to both remain politically united and trying to generate more political capital to continue supporting Ukraine. Possibly, there is a renewed push among NATO members to have NATO soldiers fill ancillary roles. I consider this very likely, as NATO soldiers are already training Ukrainian soldiers in Ukraine.
War between Russia and NATO is not impossible. But I consider it highly unlikely. I certainly don't see it happening yet as things currently stand. First, we need to see how Trump actually approaches Ukraine. Trump is extraordinarily unpredictable. It is impossible to guess his behaviors based on his statements. Second, we actually need to see Russia come out on top in a conflict around the globe. They just lost Assad, influence in central Africa is uncertain, and while they're holding up relatively well in Ukraine, achieving their stated war aims was not smooth sailing. Russia is not going to risk escalating to kinetic warfare with NATO.
A final, and maybe most important point: defense ministers have been telling their citizens to get ready for war for multiple years now. The situation is bad, sure, but it has not degraded so thoroughly in the meantime that Oreshniks are about to start falling from the sky in Paris.
This post was edited by Malopox on Dec 14 2024 12:56am