Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jul 30 2021 08:40pm)

Plenty of virologists and scientists from other fields have been, and still are, pushing for such a strategy. It took Johnson in the UK a lot of resolve to dismiss their outcry when he pushed for a full reopening in spite of growing cases. Here in Germany, Merkel has strong sympathies for the concept, she just couldn't find the support for it among the state and local leadership. Australia and New Zealand keep up their strategy of trying to keep cases (of community transmission) at zero. China still does it. Vietnam and Thailand for the longest time did it.

Like I said, this debate might sound esoteric to you Americans, but it's real in other places of the world. And for this debate about whether to pursue "flatten the curve" or low incidences, it is highly relevant if the risk of transmission by a fully vaccinated person is reduced by a factor of, say, 90% or just by, say, 30%. If the number is 90%, then a 70% vaccination rate essentially means that the reproduction number of the virus is reduced by 63% thanks to the vaccines. If you want to keep infections down, which implies keeping R(t) below 1, you absolutely need that for contagious variants like delta with its R(0) of 5 or higher.

By contrast, if the reduction in transmissibility was only 30%, then a 70% vaccination rate would reduce R(t) by just 21%, which makes it impossible to keep R(t) below 1 without ongoing, open-ended lockdowns. Therefore, if these reports about vaccinations doing very little to stymie transmission are true, that's effectively the end for any low incidence strategy.

Quote (Bazi @ 31 Jul 2021 04:03)

I appreciate the response but it was all in regards to the point which I stand by is not realistic

Covid isn’t going anywhere. Ergo mitigations are important that would threaten hospitals or excess human life. Worst of it is over I am sure. The vaccines do actually work and similarly to the flu vaccination , drastically reduce severity of the disease.

95% of current covid hospitalizations are preventable. If you want to talk about loss of productivity , look no further than an unnecessary hospitalization with a 4-5 digit bill afterwards

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jul 30 2021 09:15pm)

Oh, I totally agree with you, don't get me wrong. I always considered these eradication or low incidence strategies to be unfeasible. I was arguing in response to this ongoing meta-debate about 'flatten the curve' vs 'keep incidences low no matter what' which you had not addressed. I should have made that clearer.

The bottom line imho is the following: the vaccines achieved what was the goal in the beginning of the pandemic: give us a tool to prevent hospitals from being overburdened. It's just that the uptake is too low right now to really be on the safe side in this regard. Unfortunately, stuff like the CDC reversing course and saying "even if you're fully vaccinated, you must keep wearing masks" is really counterproductive. While this recommendation might be justifiable from a medical point of view, it will definitely not help to covince anyone who's on the fence about the vax. Dito for these recent debates among scientists and health officials which indicate that blanket restrictions might still be a possibility although we have vaccines now.

Quote (Bazi @ Jul 27 2021 04:41pm)

I don’t go to pard anymore. it’s just overrun with 2-3 users that still think trump is going to win the election and mods don’t really give a fk. Ty for making investment forum

No offense to anyone but people will do what they want to do and at this point it’s draining beating dead horses

the covid cases across the country currently are:
A. Immunocompromised or those that took vaccine and are in unfortunate anergy group
B. Unvaccinated (95% of cases)
*and estimated ~85% delta (region specific)

Im not sure what specifically y’all are discussing but the “I’m low risk so I am not going to get the vaccine” argument is imo a tad selfish and a part of the reason this is unnecessarily prolonged.

Even if you are low risk you can unknowingly transmit it to someone who is higher risk who may not be able to take the vaccination. Furthermore we are seeing younger and younger patients with it now. Yes 2020 it was primarily a disease of elderly, however the ones currently hospitalized are the middle aged demographics that didn’t think it would happen to them. Given 1/3-1/2 the country remains unvaccinated (I think these are the numbers it’s been a minute since I looked them up) , it is going to be a substantial 3rd wave into fall/winter. Hospital systems are already preparing for it and getting into bidding wars with ensuring RN staff is met. There is a huge RN shortage across the country that was catalyzed by covid and hospitals are really spending huge $$$ trying to ensure they can keep hospitals at capacity without staff being the limiting reagent

Re vaccinations:Part the of the vaccine hesitancy is still this is a novel vaccine bla bla. It’s research that’s been going on for 20 years actually, this is just the first time it was put into clinical practice and utilized pretty old school immunology concepts. It isn’t as science fiction as people think. And if that truly is the reservation, then what’s the reason that group doesn’t opt for traditional JJ vaccine? It will come back to the “well I’m low risk” retort. It’s a selfish mentality, imo.

Also puzzling to me is the same people who are anti vax are also anti mask. Taking a break from covid - Do people not realize for a year RSV and Flu rates were non existent? A mask is that much of a burden to save how many thousands of lives?

Quote (Bazi @ 31 Jul 2021 04:41)

Eh while I understand your point , let’s be crystal clear here. The same people who are anti vax are also anti mask. Regardless of what the CDC says at this point, they won’t be the ones who will sway those who still are unvaccinated. Even half of DF is unvax and there is a large thread there which I left this little while ago

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jul 30 2021 09:55pm)

Sure, the dipshits who are anti mask and anti vaxx at the same time are hopeless cases. But from what I've heard, there are still plenty of Americans who are hesitant or genuinely don't know where to get the jab, or couldn't afford the time off to do it yet.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/partisanship-isnt-the-only-reason-why-so-many-americans-remain-unvaccinated/

What needs to happen to improve the vaccination rate imho:

- give everyone two days off after the jab
- reach out to community leaders and make them work their people, so that misconceptions or unfounded fears can be rooted out
- bring the vaccines to underprivileged communities with vaccination buses and shit like that so that the inconvenience/distance/time off is reduced
- make it clear to the hard anti-vaxxers that if they catch covid, they will be turned away at hospitals in favor of the vaccinated once the hospital is full

Quote (Bazi @ 31 Jul 2021 05:14)

I think we are on same page

Except for the last point which would be interesting but not the way

Quote (TiStuff @ 31 Jul 2021 03:56)

here in califorina it can get to triple digits and no mask newsome wants to bring back the mask. yo fukin really believe a flu virus in the middle of summer?

you really think its the flu?????????????????????????????

Leaked CDC Docs Destroy White House Vaccine Messaging

74% Of Cases In Cape Cod COVID Outbreak FULLY VACCINATED

Quote (ofthevoid @ 31 Jul 2021 05:52)

Just watched the local news. Some county medical official was on there and said that between 25-30% of new Delta Covid cases are in people who are vaccinated in our county. I could of swore reading national media articles that said something like 95% of some of the more current cases are from unvaccinated folks...

Like that's a massive discrepancy. Which one is it? It's hard for me to believe the local guy was lying and inflating that number that significantly.