Quote (babun1024 @ 30 Nov 2024 00:48)
Russia isn't looking for WW3.
Kinda agree: they prefer to take countries one by one, more slowly than a big war. First take countries that were part of USSR, then move on to countries who were in Warsaw Pact, then finish what they started in 1945 with germans, then attack France because of Napoleon who attacked Russia in the past. Italy's Mussolini and Spain's Franco were not really cool leaders either, that could be used as an excuse. Excuse will always be found, when only there is a will of countries to keep Russia satisfied.
Quote (babun1024 @ 30 Nov 2024 00:48)
Biden's administration is looking for escalation before he leaves.
Nope, Biden is trying to make Ukraine position better ahead of coming peace negotiations. Russia is already "all in" into war: they bring drones from Iran, soldiers from North Korea, its not like they can get thousands of missiles out of nowhere when Ukrainians attack. They could potentially use some of the hard reserve, and risk not having that reserve, but will need to rebuild it after.
Quote (babun1024 @ 30 Nov 2024 00:48)
The thing is conquering the rest of the Ukraine is a big problem for Russia. Western Ukraine doesn't regard itself as Russian, they cost a lot, produce little compared to the east and are going to be hostile forever. You'd need to suppress them by force.
Russians are quite good at suppressing by force, we have seen that in Bucha Massacre two years ago. And ukrainian civilians can be used as a cannon fodder in next war: much less cost than using Russian own population.
Quote (babun1024 @ 30 Nov 2024 00:48)
Russian population wouldn't support the move either.
Russians would be glad that Russia grows, thats how these people feel. Gorbaczev and Jelcyn tried to change that in 90s, to switch Russia to democracy, but it didnt work unfortunately.