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Nov 29 2024 04:37pm
Quote (zorzin @ Nov 29 2024 11:18pm)
The Ukrainian president told Sky News's chief correspondent Stuart Ramsay NATO membership would have to be offered to unoccupied parts of the country in order to end the "hot phase of the war", as long as the NATO invitation itself recognises Ukraine's internationally recognised borders.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy has suggested a ceasefire deal could be struck if Ukrainian territory he controls could be taken "under the NATO umbrella" - allowing him to negotiate the return of the rest later "in a diplomatic way
https://news.sky.com/story/zelenskyy-suggests-hes-prepared-to-end-ukraine-war-in-return-for-nato-membership-even-if-russia-doesnt-immediately-return-seized-land-13263085

Thoughts?

He is in no position to ask for anything. Best deal which can be reached is to secure a deal for the western Ukraine and to send troops there to guaranty the peace/ territorial integrity. Russia will probably ask for sanctions relief which could smooth out the transition. I don't think Russia is going to talk with Zelensky at all btw. Ukraine will probably hold new elections under temporary ceasefire and that government will have the mandate of the people to decide the future of the country.
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Nov 29 2024 05:30pm
Quote (babun1024 @ Nov 29 2024 09:30pm)
Not really, it is the point of view of an insider. Useful info, peace agreement isn't possible at the moment no matter what Zelensky says because Russia could conquer all of the Ukraine. There is no reason for them to negotiate. Europe/Trump/USA/Zelenksy whoever need to stop Russia from conquering all of Ukraine at all costs. Seeing NATO troops in western Ukraine is a rather realistic perspective.



Other key point, his son is apparently 18 but lost lots of friends. It means people sent to the front are male and very young. They were sent first probably and now Ukraine ran out of them.

Active fighting takes place in eastern Ukraine and his lives in western Ukraine. His friends were sent to the front.


sry to clarify, there is every reason for russia to negotiate, as they dont want ww3. yes from a ukrainian perspective there is no reason to negotiate as they have been hard wired that way.
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Nov 29 2024 05:48pm
Quote (ferdia @ Nov 30 2024 12:30am)
sry to clarify, there is every reason for russia to negotiate, as they dont want ww3. yes from a ukrainian perspective there is no reason to negotiate as they have been hard wired that way.

Russia isn't looking for WW3. Biden's administration is looking for escalation before he leaves. The thing is conquering the rest of the Ukraine is a big problem for Russia. Western Ukraine doesn't regard itself as Russian, they cost a lot, produce little compared to the east and are going to be hostile forever. You'd need to suppress them by force. Russian population wouldn't support the move either. But and that's a big but, they don't want the same conflict some years later at their doors (Minsk I, Minsk II etc.). They'll push until they'll get a more favorable deal. Trump is going to be the dealer, Zelensky won't matter.
The deal will be probably be no NATO but peacekeeper mission from EU in the western Ukraine and a buffer zone with sanctions relief on both sides.

This post was edited by babun1024 on Nov 29 2024 05:51pm
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Nov 29 2024 06:16pm
Quote (babun1024 @ 30 Nov 2024 00:48)
Russia isn't looking for WW3.


Kinda agree: they prefer to take countries one by one, more slowly than a big war. First take countries that were part of USSR, then move on to countries who were in Warsaw Pact, then finish what they started in 1945 with germans, then attack France because of Napoleon who attacked Russia in the past. Italy's Mussolini and Spain's Franco were not really cool leaders either, that could be used as an excuse. Excuse will always be found, when only there is a will of countries to keep Russia satisfied.

Quote (babun1024 @ 30 Nov 2024 00:48)
Biden's administration is looking for escalation before he leaves.


Nope, Biden is trying to make Ukraine position better ahead of coming peace negotiations. Russia is already "all in" into war: they bring drones from Iran, soldiers from North Korea, its not like they can get thousands of missiles out of nowhere when Ukrainians attack. They could potentially use some of the hard reserve, and risk not having that reserve, but will need to rebuild it after.

Quote (babun1024 @ 30 Nov 2024 00:48)
The thing is conquering the rest of the Ukraine is a big problem for Russia. Western Ukraine doesn't regard itself as Russian, they cost a lot, produce little compared to the east and are going to be hostile forever. You'd need to suppress them by force.

Russians are quite good at suppressing by force, we have seen that in Bucha Massacre two years ago. And ukrainian civilians can be used as a cannon fodder in next war: much less cost than using Russian own population.

Quote (babun1024 @ 30 Nov 2024 00:48)
Russian population wouldn't support the move either.

Russians would be glad that Russia grows, thats how these people feel. Gorbaczev and Jelcyn tried to change that in 90s, to switch Russia to democracy, but it didnt work unfortunately.
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Nov 29 2024 06:21pm
right and look under your bed or else the boogie man will get you. dont forget to insult me either, since thats your current go to.
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Nov 29 2024 06:52pm
Quote
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha is urging NATO leaders to invite Ukraine to join the Western military alliance during a meeting in Brussels next week, according to a letter sent to alliance leaders—reflecting the country's frenzied push to gain membership in the alliance in the final days of Biden's presidency.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-to-seek-nato-invitation-in-brussels-next-week/ar-AA1v051o
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Nov 29 2024 07:09pm
Quote (Ironfister @ 30 Nov 2024 08:16)
Kinda agree: they prefer to take countries one by one, more slowly than a big war. First take countries that were part of USSR, then move on to countries who were in Warsaw Pact, then finish what they started in 1945 with germans, then attack France because of Napoleon who attacked Russia in the past. Italy's Mussolini and Spain's Franco were not really cool leaders either, that could be used as an excuse. Excuse will always be found, when only there is a will of countries to keep Russia satisfied.



Nope, Biden is trying to make Ukraine position better ahead of coming peace negotiations. Russia is already "all in" into war: they bring drones from Iran, soldiers from North Korea, its not like they can get thousands of missiles out of nowhere when Ukrainians attack. They could potentially use some of the hard reserve, and risk not having that reserve, but will need to rebuild it after.


Russians are quite good at suppressing by force, we have seen that in Bucha Massacre two years ago. And ukrainian civilians can be used as a cannon fodder in next war: much less cost than using Russian own population.


Russians would be glad that Russia grows, thats how these people feel. Gorbaczev and Jelcyn tried to change that in 90s, to switch Russia to democracy, but it didnt work unfortunately.


Whatever you are smoking I would like to have some of those B)

This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on Nov 29 2024 07:09pm
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Nov 29 2024 07:11pm
Quote (babun1024 @ 30 Nov 2024 06:37)
He is in no position to ask for anything. Best deal which can be reached is to secure a deal for the western Ukraine and to send troops there to guaranty the peace/ territorial integrity. Russia will probably ask for sanctions relief which could smooth out the transition. I don't think Russia is going to talk with Zelensky at all btw. Ukraine will probably hold new elections under temporary ceasefire and that government will have the mandate of the people to decide the future of the country.


I have some nice drops on your thread today.
Let me know if you want to make a Season 9 Thread. I will sponsor the Red and Bold . ;)
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Nov 29 2024 07:25pm
Quote (Ironfister @ 30 Nov 2024 03:16)
Kinda agree: they prefer to take countries one by one, more slowly than a big war. First take countries that were part of USSR, then move on to countries who were in Warsaw Pact, then finish what they started in 1945 with germans, then attack France because of Napoleon who attacked Russia in the past. Italy's Mussolini and Spain's Franco were not really cool leaders either, that could be used as an excuse. Excuse will always be found, when only there is a will of countries to keep Russia satisfied.



Nope, Biden is trying to make Ukraine position better ahead of coming peace negotiations. Russia is already "all in" into war: they bring drones from Iran, soldiers from North Korea, its not like they can get thousands of missiles out of nowhere when Ukrainians attack. They could potentially use some of the hard reserve, and risk not having that reserve, but will need to rebuild it after.


Russians are quite good at suppressing by force, we have seen that in Bucha Massacre two years ago. And ukrainian civilians can be used as a cannon fodder in next war: much less cost than using Russian own population.


Russians would be glad that Russia grows, thats how these people feel. Gorbaczev and Jelcyn tried to change that in 90s, to switch Russia to democracy, but it didnt work unfortunately.


I agree: they prefer it slowly. They don't rush unless it's rush B. Now they are on the long run of a massive land grab, 3 years already. Ukraine is just a beginning, the first target so far. Not the smartest idea, I would start with Belarus. But you know, those ruskis are unpredictable due to their inferior genes.

This post was edited by Norlander on Nov 29 2024 07:37pm
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Nov 30 2024 01:08am
Quote
Zelensky says he can agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine if:
- Ukraine gets an invitation to NATO for the whole territory
- The only held territory is under the military NATO umbrella
- Then Ukraine can have a ceasefire and try to get the other regions back diplomatically


No NATO is firm and deals that include it are an immediate nonstarter for Russians.

EU accession might be an option with Lisbon treaty security guarantees.

Moreover current events in Aleppo show why Russians will never agree to an armistice deal. Root causes have to be fixed proper, not postponed until more opportune time.

This post was edited by Malopox on Nov 30 2024 01:14am
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