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#46001
Nov 27 2024 01:46pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Nov 27 2024 07:36pm)
That's actually not true at all. The current ruling Social Democrats (SPD) have historically been comparatively Russia-friendly and less reflexively "transatlanticist" than Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU). In 2022, Germany kept buying Russian gas until they cut off the supply at some point in late summer. Merz, the new leader of the CDU, wanted the country to voluntarily boycott Russian gas in the spring of 2022, which would have been disastrous (our storages were near empty and we desperately needed to buy time). Scholz told him to fuck off. Conversely, a state PM from the SPD was caught actively trying to help Russia evade sanctions so that NS2 could proceed.

Throughout this whole conflict, Germany has taken FAR from the most hawkish position on Russia. Heck, even the Biden admin wasn't super hawkish. The order, from most to least hawkish, goes something like this:

Ukraine > Poland > Baltics > UK > US > Czechia > France > Germany > Italy > Austria > Romania > Slovakia > Turkey > Hungary.


i dont disagree with your (broad) statement and ordering, i am disagreeing with your notion that germany can extricate itself from US foreign policy (i.e. able to re-open its cash cow of global trade with Russia and China). the direction of travel, looks to be going hardline (based on language and events). while I accept what you are saying and agree, I would need to see actions rather then words for me to change my mind.

In laymans terms: germany would have to question Nord Stream, maybe use that as an excuse to get reparations from the US / Ukraine and then re-open trade with Russia, for me to believe the notion that Germany is not a lame duck. I dont see any evidence to support this.

If germany had common sense they would not have crippled their own economy. so i refute the whole "not true" comment. say rather I have a difference of opinion.

This post was edited by ferdia on Nov 27 2024 01:50pm
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#46002
Nov 27 2024 01:49pm
Quote (Hamsterbaby @ Nov 27 2024 08:07pm)
If we are lucky enough we will live another 20 or more so years if the world doesn't go on a nuclear winter.
I will not be surprised if the empire state building is going to be plane rammed into in near future, but the perpetrators are going to be blue eyed blonde males.


To tell the truth, the original "Aryans", not the bulllshit version by Hitler or some neonazi idiots probably originated somewhere between Tajikistan and Ukraine. It was the andronovo culture:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andronovo_culture
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#46003
Nov 27 2024 01:59pm
Quote (ferdia @ 27 Nov 2024 20:46)
i dont disagree with your (broad) statement and ordering, i am disagreeing with your notion that germany can extricate itself from US foreign policy (i.e. able to re-open its cash cow of global trade with Russia and China). the direction of travel, looks to be going hardline. while I accept what you are saying and agree, I would need to see actions rather then words for me to change my mind.


No European country can unilaterally break away from the general foreign policy direction set by the US and its European peers. If there is a critical mass of countries, on the other hand, it is well possible. Case in point: when the US wanted to go to war in Iraq, half of Europe (and Canada) told them to pound sand. (Pun intended^^)


Trade with Russia and China, while profitable, is not as much of an outstanding cash-cow for Germany as you might think:
Top trade partners in 2020:


This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 27 2024 01:59pm
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#46004
Nov 27 2024 02:05pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Nov 27 2024 08:59pm)
No European country can unilaterally break away from the general foreign policy direction set by the US and its European peers. If there is a critical mass of countries, on the other hand, it is well possible. Case in point: when the US wanted to go to war in Iraq, half of Europe (and Canada) told them to pound sand. (Pun intended^^)


Trade with Russia and China, while profitable, is not as much of an outstanding cash-cow for Germany as you might think:
Top trade partners in 2020:
https://i.imgur.com/ho8g9Ut.jpeg


You are mistaking trade volume for trade value. You need to create value to exchange for something. Europe is a dead continent. We have to import energy, food, build materials and cattle food from everywhere bare Italy and Spain. Without them, you wouldn't have the added value to trade for that volume in that graph. Without Russia and Ukraine, we lack high quality metal, cheap energy, cheap cattle food, nitrats for the ground, even more expensive nuclear energy import (that's how our "green" energy survives). There is much more but those are important every day.

This post was edited by babun1024 on Nov 27 2024 02:07pm
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#46005
Nov 27 2024 02:06pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Nov 27 2024 07:59pm)
No European country can unilaterally break away from the general foreign policy direction set by the US and its European peers. If there is a critical mass of countries, on the other hand, it is well possible. Case in point: when the US wanted to go to war in Iraq, half of Europe (and Canada) told them to pound sand. (Pun intended^^)


Trade with Russia and China, while profitable, is not as much of an outstanding cash-cow for Germany as you might think:
Top trade partners in 2020:
https://i.imgur.com/ho8g9Ut.jpeg


nothing there refutes my position.

a funny comment here re: Nord Stream, watch from 11:20.



This post was edited by ferdia on Nov 27 2024 02:07pm
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#46006
Nov 27 2024 02:08pm
Quote (babun1024 @ 28 Nov 2024 03:49)
To tell the truth, the original "Aryans", not the bulllshit version by Hitler or some neonazi idiots probably originated somewhere between Tajikistan and Ukraine. It was the andronovo culture:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andronovo_culture


Indians. :rofl:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C4%80ry%C4%81varta
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#46007
Nov 27 2024 02:12pm
Quote (babun1024 @ Nov 27 2024 09:49pm)
To tell the truth, the original "Aryans", not the bulllshit version by Hitler or some neonazi idiots probably originated somewhere between Tajikistan and Ukraine. It was the andronovo culture:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andronovo_culture


Iranian peoples (persians, kurds, balochs) are most obvious descendants of Aryans, common word by Zoroastrians to describe themselves in Avesta. There is definitely some linkage to indian-peoples, considering the word has been used in old sanskrit by Aryans who migrated to the Indian subcontinent.

As for how it ties into europeans, I am not sure. There is plenty of european and persian genotype that is shared although frequency is lower .. so there should be some linkage

This post was edited by ownyaah on Nov 27 2024 02:15pm
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#46008
Nov 27 2024 02:15pm
Quote (babun1024 @ 27 Nov 2024 21:05)
You are mistaking trade volume for trade value. You need to create value to exchange for something. Europe is a dead continent. We have to import energy, food, build materials and cattle food from everywhere bare Italy and Spain. Without them, you wouldn't have the added value to trade for that volume in that graph.


Sure, but I couldn't find a source for the biggest trade partners by value-added. Overall trade volume is still a pretty good proxy for how important various trade partners are in terms of GDP.

Exclusively looking at commodities while disregarding services, technology, ideas or the processing of raw materials in modern factories and so on, would skew our perspective of trade in favor of the big energy exporters.

Quote (ferdia @ 27 Nov 2024 21:06)
nothing there refutes my position.

I guess we can agree to disagree, and that's okay. Sorry that I don't have the time or the motivation to really go into great depth here, particularly since it's kinda obvious that we would still disagree in the end. ;)

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 27 2024 02:15pm
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#46009
Nov 27 2024 02:15pm
Quote (Hamsterbaby @ Nov 27 2024 09:08pm)
Indians. :rofl:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C4%80ry%C4%81varta

Nope, not Indians, there are Indian nationalists with their bullshit theories to try to emancipate themselves from the English colonization. However, ancient Iran and North India have got the best written sources for the ancient Indo-European languages ( Avesta and Sanscript). Something else people don't consider is that andronovo culture were good warriors but otherwise more or less savages compared to Indus Valley civilization or proto Iranian one :lol: They couldn't even read or write.
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#46010
Nov 27 2024 02:21pm
Quote (ownyaah @ Nov 27 2024 09:12pm)
Iranian peoples (persians, kurds, balochs) are most obvious descendants of Aryans, common word by Zoroastrians to describe themselves in Avesta. There is definitely some linkage to indian-peoples, considering the word has been used in old sanskrit by Aryans who migrated to the Indian subcontinent.

As for how it ties into europeans, I am not sure. There is plenty of european and persian genotype that is shared although frequency is lower .. so there should be some linkage

It's pretty easy to locate where the andronovo culture or their successors have been. You just need to look for the Y-haplotype R1a1b and R1a1a. Kurds and Iranians are mostly elamites (Ancient Mesopotamians were elamites). Iranians have about 20% R1a1a, you have a divide between western and eastern Europe. In the east, R1a1a is more dominant and in the west R1a1b. Afghans for example have got much more R1a1a than Iranians, they are geologically also closer to the origin. The ones in central Asia ro East Asia were wiped out by Mongols.
Again, the smartest people in history haven't been warriors but those dwelling in cities and building civilizations. From that POV, Aryans were nothing special.

This post was edited by babun1024 on Nov 27 2024 02:23pm
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