Quote (Bazi @ 31 Jul 2021 03:22)
nobody realistically thinks "nocovid" or "zerocovid" is a reality. covid will be here for the next decade becoming increasingly benign, which is what the majority have been saying for the last year
Plenty of virologists and scientists from other fields have been, and still are, pushing for such a strategy. It took Johnson in the UK a lot of resolve to dismiss their outcry when he pushed for a full reopening in spite of growing cases. Here in Germany, Merkel has strong sympathies for the concept, she just couldn't find the support for it among the state and local leadership. Australia and New Zealand keep up their strategy of trying to keep cases (of community transmission) at zero. China still does it. Vietnam and Thailand for the longest time did it.
Like I said, this debate might sound esoteric to you Americans, but it's real in other places of the world. And for this debate about whether to pursue "flatten the curve" or low incidences, it is highly relevant if the risk of transmission by a fully vaccinated person is reduced by a factor of, say, 90% or just by, say, 30%. If the number is 90%, then a 70% vaccination rate essentially means that the reproduction number of the virus is reduced by 63% thanks to the vaccines. If you want to keep infections down, which implies keeping R(t) below 1, you absolutely need that for contagious variants like delta with its R(0) of 5 or higher.
By contrast, if the reduction in transmissibility was only 30%, then a 70% vaccination rate would reduce R(t) by just 21%, which makes it impossible to keep R(t) below 1 without ongoing, open-ended lockdowns. Therefore, if these reports about vaccinations doing very little to stymie transmission are true, that's effectively the end for any low incidence strategy.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jul 30 2021 07:44pm