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Nov 16 2024 06:21pm
Quote (ferdia @ 17 Nov 2024 00:12)
Whats your view then on Donald Trumps quest for peace?


Let me preface this by saying that neither Germany nor the UK will play a major role in how the Ukraine war is ultimately settled. They will ultimately fall in line with what the US want to do.

Regarding Trump: he has no interest in prolonging the war in Ukraine, and - unlike Biden or the DC establishment - he also has no real interest in upholding a "rules-based" international order (in which the US set the rules...)
Trump's primary focus is on domestic issues and China, that's where he will want to steer America's resources, both the physical and the political ones.

Furthermore, this war and US investment into it is really unpopular with Trump's populist and working-class base, so if he can put a quick end to it, that'll be a huge 'win' for him and build up his momentum and political capital.




So I expect Trump to push rather aggressively for a negotiated peace. How exactly this will look like is a total guess, though. I don't see Trump just overtly pressing Ukraine to surrender; I would expect him to use a carrot and stick approach toward Russia. Something like proposing a deal which is relatively favorable to Russia, but also signalling that the US will send MORE heavy weapons to Ukraine if Russia doesn't take it.

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Nov 16 2024 08:15pm
Quote (ferdia @ Nov 17 2024 01:50am)
The way I would frame it is, Zelensky was a war time leader, an inspiring and charismatic presence, the figure head of the Ukrainian Government, of resistance, against a dreadful invader. He was responsible for the Nation of Ukraine. However, this is where there is a problem. Being responsible for Ukraine, from the point at which he outlawed any negotiation with Russia (and the US also closed down any backdoor channels lets not forget) he will not be well regarded by historians. Always leave a door open for dialogue, and always seek whats best for your people. Prolonging the war against Russia may be in US interests (I dont agree) but prolonging the war from a Ukrainian perspective is not in their interests.

While it remains to be seen if Donald Trump will be president of the United States, his team will seek a negotiated settlement, this is a scenario from which Zelensky as leader of Ukraine will not survive. The most plausible scenario is that there will be regime change in Ukraine in summer 2025.

Some links: https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20241116-zelensky-says-wants-to-end-war-by-diplomacy-next-year Zelensky says he wants Russia-Ukraine war to end by ‘diplomatic means’ in 2025
Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/11/16/g7-backs-ukraine-as-zelenskyy-says-he-wants-to-end-war-next-year

So it looks like the hard conversation between Trump and Zelensky has occured.

TLDR : When Trump says he will do something, he is going to do it. (all the lefties were bitching that he cant realistically end the Ukraine war anytime soon, well here we are).


@bold

They were convinced that the sanctions were going to collapse the Russian economy, the Russians would run out of everything and the superior Ukrainians (helped by all of NATO) would kick the Russians out of Ukraine.

The good guys (including the Ukrainian Banderite regime lmao) would never need to negotiate with the inferior Russians orcs.
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Nov 17 2024 12:51am
This post is a violation of the site rules and appropriate action was taken.

“Appeasenik Faction” my man, the depth of mental gymnastics and delusion in here never ceases to amaze me.

Russians have been consistent in their concerns for decades. Decades! All documented and carefully archived only to be dutifully ignored and shelved as “inconsistent with our foreign policy”. European and American politicians consistently ignored these concerns and refused treating Russians as equals and now are pretending to act surprised and outraged when the situation got escalated as Russians warned it would. People in charge knew exactly what would happen and they WANTED it. They wanted another bloody war so Raytheon, General Dynamics, Rheinmetall could get those sweet orders for F35s, ATACMS, fresh drones and tanks. Stock market all time high driven by military Keynesianism and the new red scare. Human lives have a price on them and poor countries sell their humans for cheap. Slave trade 2.0. Unelected and unaccountable bueracrats trading innocent lives for a cut of the profits so they could retire in Miami or Marbella.

Wake up and smell the coffee. Stop being a war hungry fool that thinks you are invincible. It’s much cheaper to have a bad peace than a good war. Western world have lost all privilege and right to teach morals to other countries after their atrocious track record since the collapse of the Soviet Union. All these adventures that caused millions of deaths and tens of millions of refugees. Oh you don’t like Syrians or Albanians in Europe? Guess why they came here? You bombed the shit out their ancestral home where they lived for centuries and murdered half of their extended family. All so a bunch of boomers can feel good about themselves. The travesty of it all. The ineptitude to have any semblance of self- reflection. It makes me sad that we as humanity just cannot help ourselves and history keeps repeating, century after century after century.

This post was edited by Malopox on Nov 17 2024 01:10am
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Nov 17 2024 03:23am
Quote (Hamsterbaby @ Nov 16 2024 11:36pm)
Don't spew NATO propaganda and move East and that solve the entire conflict.


NATO is not spreading, independent nations can freely join it, no matter what mordor says. It doesn't own "the east". Even Ukraine can join NATO after the war and you can't do anything about that.

Stop attacking neighbours and NATO won't be needed.

Quote (Malopox @ Nov 17 2024 07:51am)
Russians have been consistent in their concerns for decades.
European and American politicians consistently ignored these concerns and refused treating Russians as equals and now are pretending to act surprised and outraged when the situation got escalated as Russians warned it would.


wow, talk about mental gymnastics. "Hey you there, stop locking your door OR ELSE i will knock them down, rape your wife and steal your valuables."

"You see, I had to do it, I warned you if you kept locking your door I would, so its your fault"

This post was edited by nuvo on Nov 17 2024 03:26am
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Nov 17 2024 03:27am
Quote (nuvo @ 17 Nov 2024 17:23)
NATO is not spreading, independent nations can freely join it, no matter what mordor says. It doesn't own "the east". Even Ukraine can join NATO after the war and you can't do anything about that.
Stop attacking neighbours and NATO won't be needed.


Independent country can also join the commies and have a security alliance with them. Let's see what happens if Cuba, Mexico, Central America, Panama, etc etc decides to join the bat soup China commies, let's see what USA will do.

Oh wait... Cuba is still fxxked because they had the guts to join the Soviet commies 60 years back, oh wait they decided it's not a good thing to mess with Uncle Sam.

Oh wait....USA is still sanctioning them for their audacity up till now for shits and giggles. :rofl:

Mate, you need to understand great power politics and as the left put it... Safe Spaces. :rofl:


For the Bold part. Western Ukraine sure. Eastern Ukraine will be gone by then and it Might Become a landlocked Rump State which is useless, because that will render the control of black sea pointless.

This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on Nov 17 2024 03:30am
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Nov 17 2024 03:32am
Quote (Hamsterbaby @ Nov 17 2024 10:27am)
Independent country can also join the commies and have a security alliance with them. Let's see what happens if Cuba, Mexico, Central America, Panama, etc etc decides to join the bat soup commies let's see what USA will do.
Oh wait... Cuba is still fxxked and they had the guts to join the Soviet commies 60 years back, oh wait they decided it's not a good thing to mess with Uncle Sam.

Oh wait....USA is still sanctioning them for their audacity up till now for shits and giggles. :rofl:

Mate, you need to understand great power politics and as the left put it... Safe Spaces. :rofl:


And why didn't commies sanction USA? Why its not americans (I am not one of them btw) swim on rafts to Cuba, but its other way around?

But alas, NATO is a defensive structure that only exists because russia thinks its okay to attack neighbours. But good job, at least we have new members now, warm welcome for Finland and Sweden =) all thanks to nazi ruzzia
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Nov 17 2024 03:49am
Quote (nuvo @ 17 Nov 2024 17:32)
And why didn't commies sanction USA? Why its not americans (I am not one of them btw) swim on rafts to Cuba, but its other way around?

But alas, NATO is a defensive structure that only exists because russia thinks its okay to attack neighbours. But good job, at least we have new members now, warm welcome for Finland and Sweden =) all thanks to nazi ruzzia


1. NATO went from a Defensive institution and after the fall of the Soviet Bloc and Warsaw Pact, it started to creep into becoming a offensive and hegemonic institution. It is basically Uncle Sam's Trojan horse in EU.

2. Why Cuban swim on rafts to USA. All revolution are bloody, all revolution takes lives and loads of it, citizens who have at that point of time capitalistic leaning ideology will be wrecked.
Those that do not adhered to a " Western" point of view do not have a problem.
If Cuba was inherently bad to all it's citizens, 90 percent would have fled and they wouldn't have 10 Million citizens as of 2024

3. Finland and Sweden are not core interest to the Russians. Ukraine on the other hand has historical kinship, territories like the Eastern Donbass and Crimea are especially important to Russia.
Furthermore let's not pretend that the war didn't started in 2014 Euro Maidan where the Azov boys have been targeting the Russian speaking Donbass area and " genocide" them up till the hot war started.

4. Americans no need to swim to Cuba because not only is she one of the main victors of WW2, it's economy and Industry have boomed and made a ton of money after the war. Cubans are not the only ones that swim in Rafts to USA.
Tons of migration started because everyone believed and it holds true at the time, that it is the greatest country in the world and have an open society as compared to the close command economy and ideological oppressive Soviet Bloc.

Things changes over time, empires / society rise and fall and slowly turn from the liberators and become oppressors.



Sometimes you live long enough as a hero and become a villian


-- Confucius, South Africa, 2000


:rofl:

This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on Nov 17 2024 03:50am
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Nov 17 2024 03:51am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Nov 17 2024 12:21am)
Let me preface this by saying that neither Germany nor the UK will play a major role in how the Ukraine war is ultimately settled. They will ultimately fall in line with what the US want to do.

Regarding Trump: he has no interest in prolonging the war in Ukraine, and - unlike Biden or the DC establishment - he also has no real interest in upholding a "rules-based" international order (in which the US set the rules...)
Trump's primary focus is on domestic issues and China, that's where he will want to steer America's resources, both the physical and the political ones.

Furthermore, this war and US investment into it is really unpopular with Trump's populist and working-class base, so if he can put a quick end to it, that'll be a huge 'win' for him and build up his momentum and political capital.




So I expect Trump to push rather aggressively for a negotiated peace. How exactly this will look like is a total guess, though. I don't see Trump just overtly pressing Ukraine to surrender; I would expect him to use a carrot and stick approach toward Russia. Something like proposing a deal which is relatively favorable to Russia, but also signalling that the US will send MORE heavy weapons to Ukraine if Russia doesn't take it.


i can agree with all of that.
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Nov 17 2024 04:08am
Quote (nuvo @ Nov 17 2024 09:23am)
NATO is not spreading, independent nations can freely join it, no matter what mordor says...."Hey you there, stop locking your door OR ELSE i will knock them down, rape your wife and steal your valuables.""


1. This might come as a shock to you but Nato has been spreading over a number of decades, what, you think Putin just woke up after 20 years and said, hey lets go invade ukraine and take over the world, you are so gullible you believe that ? believe there was no causal event that led to the invasion ? that is mental gymnastics, to use a term you like.

Here is an image that may help you.



2. Dehumanizing your opponents with such expressions as "morder" "commies" as well as the usual "orc's" "less then human" "animals" and "hamapalestinians" are typical tropes in western media. This idea of dividing the world into goodies and baddies is a very simplistic world view. So is not picking up the phone and trying to understand motives/goals etc. and yet thats exactly what the biden government did, with Russia, with China with Syria.

there are multiple users in these sub forums that come out with language like this, or with expressions "rape your wife" it is so immature of thought, its sad.

This post was edited by ferdia on Nov 17 2024 04:33am
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Nov 17 2024 04:49am
Quote (nuvo @ Nov 17 2024 04:23pm)
NATO is not spreading


I stopped reading right there :rofl:

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