Russia / Ukraine - Topic

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Nov 14 2024 06:41am

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Nov 14 2024 12:16am)

It's a worthless article/opinion indeed, but I gotta disagre with the bolded part. The European NATO members alone have a larger standing military, vastly larger quantities of jets, guided missiles, air defense and surveillance systems than Russia, and they have more modern tech in general. Russia has already undergone a round of conscription and needs to go begging for more soldiers in places like North Korea - and they still haven't beaten Ukraine although they are far more serious about that conflict than Ukraine's Western partners.

As of today, there's no chance the Russians could push any further into Europe than the Baltics. So their ability to turn Europe into a wasteland with conventional means (i.e. no nukes) would have to come from a gigantic stockpile of long-range missiles which the NATO countries couldn't intercept in spite of very long travel times. I don't see that at all. Russia's deterrence of NATO imho hinges entirely on their nukes and nothing else.

You are absolutely correct in your assessment; however, you are looking at this scenario as if Russia could engage in a protracted war of attrition. Nato would and could decisively defeat the Russians in a conventional war; thats why Russua would use the act of attacking critical civilian infrastructure as a deterrent. Russia would absolutely get roflstomped in return, but it always had the ability to target European NPPs/highways/hospitals/electrical grids via their submarines/air force. Assuming they had the element of surprise, most of Germany and Poland would get obliterated by the Russian air force before NATO could respond and the subs would attack the UK and France. This is a conventional MAD scenario where Russia ultimately loses in the end, but I took issue with Rob Bauer comparing the Russians to the Taliban.

ferdia

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Nov 14 2024 07:06am

Quote (Thebarba @ Nov 14 2024 11:22am)

All this makes me pretty uneasy about the future. Rival world actors should be expected to see the US as a bipolar demon. When the Democrat Party (unless overhaul) is in charge, the world can expect the US to provoke and instigate conflict, and perpetuate it so long as it's profitable. When someone like Trump is in charge, world actors can start to trust that diplomacy actually exists in the US. But at this point, Putin can tell Trump - "I trust you. But you only have 4 years. Who takes over for you? Be it a Democrat, or one of your successors, how can the bipolar US demon be counted on enough that we can accept a peace deal enforced by the good word of the US-lead rules-based world order, when it has betrayed us explicitly?"

Take it 1 step at a time. the first step is can Trump sit in the oval office in January. The 2nd step being, in 2025, can Ukraine replace zelensky with someone that can agree to a negotiated peace / or can russia contain any escalation in ukraine.
everything else after that is irrelevant for now. your point re: what happens after trump - i agree with, can trump be a kingmaker for a change in policy, but as Hamster said, unfortunately, when it comes to the middle east, and china, all US politicians have the same view, ergo we are still on a runaway train to war.

This post was edited by ferdia on Nov 14 2024 07:07am

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Nov 14 2024 02:50pm

Inappropriate Post Content

Malopox

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Nov 14 2024 03:14pm

First video, a soldier is struggling to read out the name of his brigade (he doesn’t know it and needs a paper to remind him what brigade number he should say). It’s nonsense for a deployed military NOT to know which brigade they are assigned to. Clearly fake or a POW forced to make propaganda like this under duress.

Second video, background voice commenting has a clear Ukranian accent in Russian (hovoril instead of govoril). Ukranians are filming POW torture. Why?

Posting POW torture is against D2JSP rules, you playing with fire again

Lvivz

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This post was edited by Malopox on Nov 14 2024 03:30pm

Twitchthroe

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Nov 14 2024 03:34pm